Gyroscopic Investing

Xan wrote: ↑Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:07 pm Is there really a difference between buying fresh and holding? (I'm assuming transaction fees are negligible.)

In a dividend ETF yes, simply because it will eventually pay for itself. I mean if you're holding shares that have paid out 80% of their purchase value, not including massive capitol gains over the last decade, who cares if they drop 50 or 60%? Especially since they will keep paying their dividend. One could definitely sell and route the capital to something with more upside / less downside, but generally speaking the people that purchase dividend ETF's tend to do so for a specific reason (the dividend), so I think that selling would not be necessary especially since bond yields are so weak right now (and probably going lower). Fixed income is turning into fixed expense. So there isn't a lot of other options for people that want income right now.

And TLT is now less than $1 from it's all-time high. My did that escalate quickly!

TLT is kinda nuts. I have a tight trailing stop alarm, I might sell some and try to re-buy it lower... just for fun

ochotona wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:24 pm TLT is kinda nuts. I have a tight trailing stop alarm, I might sell some and try to re-buy it lower... just for fun

Yeah, this is strange, to have gold and bonds skyrocketing like this, and stocks surprisingly holding up. Part of me says something has to give, one of these has to pullback. Stocks are starting to get volatile so I'm thinking it's going to be them. But man, who knows. All markets are simply nuts right now. Sense left the building long ago.

My portfolio is up 0.36% today. On a bad stock day like today, I'm not complaining, but I wonder where it goes from here...

It’s timely that Medium Tex came by.
I can’t remember what year it was, but I was in a hotel watching massive fires in Birmingham (UK) on TV, and gold and bonds were way up. Regarding the low long bond yields, Medium Tex said “this is when a game of tennis becomes a game of ping pong.”
Well, it feels like ping pong time again.

And we officially have the 2nd highest closing ever for TLT. On Jul 8 2016 we closed at 143.60, and that is the only date with a higher close. And it is up after hours. Insanity.

In the spirit of Libertarian666, I'd like to take credit for this boom in bonds, as I sold a few immediately prior to the huge jumps recently. That is all, you're welcome.

Thanks Kriegs!

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:37 pm In the spirit of Libertarian666, I'd like to take credit for this boom in bonds, as I sold a few immediately prior to the huge jumps recently. That is all, you're welcome.

Might turn out to be a prescient decision.

Looks like we could be in for another pp-friendly day.

https://imgur.com/a/BMouofa

I snapped the pic linked above a couple of days ago but was unable to upload it from my tablet.

{Edited for grammar}

Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html

Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:30 am

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html

Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.

Greenspan says 0% is just a number:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ex-fe ... 2019-08-13

Xan wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:54 am

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:30 am

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html

Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.

Greenspan says 0% is just a number:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ex-fe ... 2019-08-13

Yeah I saw that. And with the Fed not editing out discussions on negative interest in their minutes, and their changing of language from "zero lower bound" to "effective lower bound" (of which "effective lower bound" is speculated to be in the realm of -10%) I would say that it feels like they are preparing us for negative rates. It feels an awful lot like how Bernanke discussed QE a long time prior to actually implementing it. I hate to say it, but they are showing us their hand.

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:30 am

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html

Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.

All bow before the genius of Harry Browne. The future is indeed unpredictable. Here we are with the HBPP being lifted in large part by what I think can be safely called its most unpopular component. I can't count the number of times I have ground my teeth at the thought of that giant allocation to a doomed asset.

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:39 pm

pmward wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:30 am

whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html

Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.

All bow before the genius of Harry Browne. The future is indeed unpredictable. Here we are with the HBPP being lifted in large part by what I think can be safely called its most unpopular component. I can't count the number of times I have ground my teeth at the thought of that giant allocation to a doomed asset.

BOY I hear that! You are so right! I did sell a very little today just to feel I had shorten the duration just a fraction. Wow I just can't believe that we only have 600 or so worldwide on this board! What a overall bad allocation as we don't have any believers. Ground teeth is not what I feel. For me it's I am so dumb to have this allocation as we know rates are going a lot, lot higher.

Since 2010 when I started investing in the 4x25 PP, long-term Treasuries have been the most surprising asset by far.

It’s my least favorite PP asset that’s always the hardest for me to buy, but it keeps surprising me by swooping in to buoy the portfolio at unexpected times. It seems to perform the best when people are trash-talking it the most.

Seems to me TLT starts to bang it's head on the ceiling when it hits 155. Click here, because darn it, Tinypic is going away.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e9kyV6 ... rHSm-/view

Sorry chart is working now... Please look

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:07 pm Seems to me TLT starts to bang it's head on the ceiling when it hits 155. Click here, because darn it, Tinypic is going away.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e9kyV6 ... rHSm-/view

Trend channels can be broken out of, and generally when that happens the old resistance line becomes the lower support line going forward. With our Fed I wouldn't be surprised if this happens in the coming years. That being said, they are considered strong resistance when tested 3 or more times, so it won't be easy. And even if we don't break above it, there's no reason why we can't just hug the line and follow it up. It is also an upward trending channel, and it's a strong upward trend, so just because we are close to the resistance level doesn't mean we have to pull back. If I were short term trading I wouldn't buy here, but for a PP like long term buy and hold, it's fine to still buy here. Better to buy here than not buy at all, imo.

pmward wrote: ↑Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:09 am

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:07 pm Seems to me TLT starts to bang it's head on the ceiling when it hits 155. Click here, because darn it, Tinypic is going away.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e9kyV6 ... rHSm-/view

Trend channels can be broken out of, and generally when that happens the old resistance line becomes the lower support line going forward. With our Fed I wouldn't be surprised if this happens in the coming years. That being said, they are considered strong resistance when tested 3 or more times, so it won't be easy. And even if we don't break above it, there's no reason why we can't just hug the line and follow it up. It is also an upward trending channel, and it's a strong upward trend, so just because we are close to the resistance level doesn't mean we have to pull back. If I were short term trading I wouldn't buy here, but for a PP like long term buy and hold, it's fine to still buy here. Better to buy here than not buy at all, imo.

Horse race talk again?

Whether or not to buy a PP asset has nothing to do with trend channels, resistance lines, support lines, or whatever else is in here that I can't understand BC (before coffee). You buy to stay within your rebalance limits.

Do you guys mean that TLT might start becoming unstable for whatever reason? Possibly I guess...always better to hold the bonds directly if you can. ER 0 that way.

sophie wrote: ↑Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:51 am Horse race talk again?

Whether or not to buy a PP asset has nothing to do with trend channels, resistance lines, support lines, or whatever else is in here that I can't understand BC (before coffee). You buy to stay within your rebalance limits.
...

+1

The economy and the movements of markets may be as complicated as the weather. Running a pp is about as simple as wearing a raincoat or bringing along an umbrella.

sophie wrote: ↑Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:51 am

pmward wrote: ↑Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:09 am

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:07 pm Seems to me TLT starts to bang it's head on the ceiling when it hits 155. Click here, because darn it, Tinypic is going away.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e9kyV6 ... rHSm-/view

Trend channels can be broken out of, and generally when that happens the old resistance line becomes the lower support line going forward. With our Fed I wouldn't be surprised if this happens in the coming years. That being said, they are considered strong resistance when tested 3 or more times, so it won't be easy. And even if we don't break above it, there's no reason why we can't just hug the line and follow it up. It is also an upward trending channel, and it's a strong upward trend, so just because we are close to the resistance level doesn't mean we have to pull back. If I were short term trading I wouldn't buy here, but for a PP like long term buy and hold, it's fine to still buy here. Better to buy here than not buy at all, imo.

Horse race talk again?

Whether or not to buy a PP asset has nothing to do with trend channels, resistance lines, support lines, or whatever else is in here that I can't understand BC (before coffee). You buy to stay within your rebalance limits.

Do you guys mean that TLT might start becoming unstable for whatever reason? Possibly I guess...always better to hold the bonds directly if you can. ER 0 that way.

Agreed, that's why I said that if someone is holding a PP they should not pay much mind to it. It's not that they might become unstable, it's just that we are close to resistance so the odds of a short to medium term pullback within the channel are increased. But like I mentioned, it is possible that we could actually break out above the channel line and really accelerate to the upside. Most importantly, it's still an upward trend so over the long term skies are still blue to the upside. So while he correctly pointed out that a couple days ago the resistance level channel line was about 155, it's slightly higher with each day, week, and month that passes. I'm personally not worried one bit about purchasing bonds in my GB with fresh cash at the moment. If I were looking to do a short to medium term trade however, I would look elsewhere.

I showed my TLT chart to my wife she told me to sell some. I did when my tight trailing stop alert went off. More and more cash...