The Bond Dream Room

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pmward
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Mon May 13, 2019 9:16 am

dualstow wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 9:03 am
No talk about China's threat to dump treasuries?
Well, I guess this has been thoroughly explored over the years.

I do wish MediumTex were here.
There's a short squeeze going on with dollars internationally right how, which is why the dollar has been shooting up lately. The Eurodollar markets have been really tight, and this is the market where almost all international U.S. dollar currency for trade is acquired. By China selling it actually would be a good thing, as it would add extra supply to balance out the demand and allow the dollar to pull back which would be a very good thing. Funny thing is Trump has been wanting the dollar to drop, so their threat is actually helps Trump's agenda, so it's not much of a threat at all. Also, it could help bond yields to get up off of the ground, another really good thing.
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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Mon May 13, 2019 9:37 am

I doubt they'll sell anyway. It's just talk.
Gold has been above 1445
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pmward
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Mon May 13, 2019 11:16 am

Yep, more than likely. Also, one needs to think that if they do sell en masse it would drop the price, which would in turn hurt them as well. I think odds are they just let what they own mature vs selling, and only buy as much as they need for trade. They've been building gold for years now, and my thoughts have always been that the reason was to reduce their USD reserves.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Wed May 15, 2019 9:13 am

We are like .5% away in TLT from setting a higher high. Combined with the higher low we set in the pullback over the last couple of months, that would officially be a confirmed new up trend. Who would have thought a year ago when they were raising rates like crazy that we would be potentially entering a new official uptrend in long treasuries now?
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Pet Hog » Wed May 15, 2019 3:39 pm

pmward wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 9:13 am
Who would have thought a year ago when they were raising rates like crazy that we would be potentially entering a new official uptrend in long treasuries now?
I think there are many members of this forum who didn't (and still don't) believe "there's nowhere for rates to go but up!"TM I'm happy that I got to add to my STTs at about 2.5%, but my expectation is that they will return to near-zero soon. But I'm happy to be a PP investor and not make predictions.
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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Thu May 16, 2019 9:36 am

Very interesting to watch it all play out!
I have no regrets jettisoning my "bad" long-term bonds, but I feel comfortable leaving the rest alone.
Gold has been above 1445
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