The Bond Dream Room

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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bedraggled
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by bedraggled » Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:40 am

Thanks for your prompt, informative response.
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:44 am

Side note from another discussion thread - Schwab and Fidelity have the same prices for US Treasury Bonds. Kind of good for bond buyers to know.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:30 pm

Thank goodness for dualstow's signature, or I wouldn't have known I just got some interests.
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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Mon Oct 01, 2018 9:55 am

I cannot tell a lie - I unloaded some more long bonds just now. Only keeping a few with really nice yields.
I guess I broke my pp, but I will continue to hold the four components in some proportion. Not going to sell gold or anything.
🚜
de-fang the snake, said my filipino kali instructor. Shortly after that, he hit me in the head with a rattan stick.
— Desert, 2016 (Nomad clothing thread)
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sophie
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by sophie » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:12 am

Thanks for posting, dualstow.

My bond allocation is still within the band limits. I'm not selling any, but I don't want to buy any either until the Fed decides it's done raising interest rates. Last statement I read says that will be sometime in 2020.
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Xan
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Xan » Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:41 am

sophie wrote:
Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:12 am
Thanks for posting, dualstow.

My bond allocation is still within the band limits. I'm not selling any, but I don't want to buy any either until the Fed decides it's done raising interest rates. Last statement I read says that will be sometime in 2020.

Shouldn't those rate hike expectations (at least in theory) be already priced in?
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Cortopassi
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:54 am

Call me nuts, but just like gold, I am salivating at adding more bonds to my rebalance in January.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:25 pm

sophie wrote:
Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:12 am
Thanks for posting, dualstow.

My bond allocation is still within the band limits. I'm not selling any, but I don't want to buy any either until the Fed decides it's done raising interest rates. Last statement I read says that will be sometime in 2020.
Sophie, the time to buy LTT’s is when the FED is raising interest rates...raise too much and cause a recession. I want to own LTT’s when that cycle begins.
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sophie
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by sophie » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:39 am

thanks guys, needed those comments.

I've noticed that the interest rates are priced in just prior to each interest rate increase, but no more than a few weeks in advance. And, one or two more of those quarter point rate increases and we'll have a yield curve inversion. I have no idea what to do when that happens.

Last time there was a yield curve inversion was 2000-2001. Short term rates eventually dropped (when the stock market went down) and 30 years stayed flat until the US government stopped issuing them in 2002. The 20 year rates eventually dropped also, so presumably it would have worked out well to hold the 30 year bonds.

Not to say that will happen again, but rather that it is not automatically a disaster to buy 30 year bonds in a flat yield curve situation.
jacksonM
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by jacksonM » Wed Oct 03, 2018 12:47 pm

Some of my original 30 year LTT's will be hitting the 20 years to maturity mark soon so I'll have to decide whether to sell and repurchase.

Seems to me that it would be an easier thing to do in a rising interest rate environment than the opposite. I wonder how PP'er's dealt with it when they were holding 14% bonds and rates were on the way down. That would have been a tough one to swallow. I think I would have been tempted to hold the 14% bond to maturity.
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:57 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:25 pm
sophie wrote:
Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:12 am
Thanks for posting, dualstow.

My bond allocation is still within the band limits. I'm not selling any, but I don't want to buy any either until the Fed decides it's done raising interest rates. Last statement I read says that will be sometime in 2020.
Sophie, the time to buy LTT’s is when the FED is raising interest rates...raise too much and cause a recession. I want to own LTT’s when that cycle begins.
It would be good to have some when the inevitable recession hits
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:24 pm

Dear Lord of Bonds
Pray that Thou 10 year mayest hit 5%
As Antonacci sell indicator doth shine like the sun
For the sake of us sinners in cash and intermediates
we pray
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