The Bond Dream Room

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Wed Oct 01, 2014 2:31 pm

For those of you not looking, but reading this forum, TLT's doing its thing today.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Oct 01, 2014 4:19 pm

Remarkable performance (take a bow)...TLT up 1.94% and it paid a .28 cents per share dividend.

30-year yield at 3.09%. Gold perked up a little, but then went back to sleep  :P
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Wed Oct 01, 2014 5:55 pm

buddtholomew wrote: Remarkable performance ...TLT up 1.94%
vs the S&P dropping 1.32%. That's the part I like, not that it works out so splendidly every day.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Reub » Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:55 pm

Ltt's are still saving the day. This is a great advantage over the BH portfolio.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by buddtholomew » Sat Oct 11, 2014 4:17 pm

Reub wrote: Ltt's are still saving the day. This is a great advantage over the BH portfolio.
Keep in mind that the PP invests in a barbell strategy (50% CASH/50% LTT's), which isn't dramatically different from a BH portfolio invested conservatively (FI traditionally invested in a bullet strategy). The 50/50 allocation has a higher overall duration and should benefit from a parallel yield decline across the curve.

I do however appreciate the benefits of owning a longer duration fixed income investment when yields are declining  ;D
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Bean » Sat Oct 11, 2014 11:54 pm

Is the next question we start asking going to be are 1% 30 year rates in the cards?
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:05 am

Wow, is TLT really set to open at $124 a share? Wow!
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by iwealth » Wed Oct 15, 2014 8:59 am

Hit $127.68! Amazing morning all around if you like watching volatility in action.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by moda0306 » Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:14 am

Must have been another round of QE manipulating the market...


Oh, wait.

I love when LTT's go on a tear. 
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by goodasgold » Wed Oct 15, 2014 9:22 am

Helluva spike on gold this morning, too.

Go, PP! (A nice semi-permanent rise in gold would be welcome, especially considering I bought most of my yellow stuff holdings in Jan. 2013.)  ???
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Lowe » Wed Oct 15, 2014 12:49 pm

Finally my bonds are helping me.  Come on flight-to-safety.  Just hope the stocks don't crash.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by iwealth » Wed Oct 15, 2014 2:31 pm

Such a remarkable day..

Nearly 6 point range in SPY, 5.5 point range in TLT, GLD relatively tame. Small caps (IWM) are up w/ the Dow down 200.

Counter-intuitively, this stuff makes me want to day trade ;)
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Reub » Wed Oct 15, 2014 3:14 pm

Lowe wrote: Finally my bonds are helping me.  Come on flight-to-safety.  Just hope the stocks don't crash.
Finally your bonds are helping you? They have been helping you all year.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Lowe » Wed Oct 15, 2014 3:43 pm

My bonds were in the red for a year and a half.  They got in the black less than a month ago, and that's the longest stretch they've had.  Not that I don't like interest payments, but the past couple weeks is the first time I've truly felt good about holding LTT and gold.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:46 pm

The result of the most volatile day I can recall for quite some time is...

PP up .07%

It sure looked like we had hit a home run this morning until it didn't.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Reub » Wed Oct 15, 2014 5:30 pm

Lowe wrote: My bonds were in the red for a year and a half.  They got in the black less than a month ago, and that's the longest stretch they've had.  Not that I don't like interest payments, but the past couple weeks is the first time I've truly felt good about holding LTT and gold.
TLT is up over 20% ytd and 16% in a year. EDV is up over 35% ytd and 25% in a year. Prior to that it was trending downward so you might be just above water.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pp4me3 » Thu Oct 16, 2014 5:24 pm

It's kind of amazing sometimes how much of my finances I have on auto-pilot so I don't have to do anything AT ALL! Seriously, the only time I even have to think about it if I don't want to is when my property tax and homeowner's insurance bills come due because they are the only ones that don't get paid automatically.

So when I logged onto Fidelity for reasons I don't remember the other day I couldn't help but notice my SEP-IRA which I have mostly filled with LT bonds and gold because I prefer growth in other accounts was like WAY up. Didn't bother to investigate why but it was an interesting quick observation.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Tue Dec 09, 2014 11:59 am

Long bonds to Barrett: "How'ya like me now?8)
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by barrett » Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:14 pm

dualstow wrote: Long bonds to Barrett: "How'ya like me now?8)
Dualstow, Thanks for thinking of me. Haven't sold yet!
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Gosso » Tue Dec 09, 2014 3:55 pm

Image
http://www.businessinsider.com/jeffrey- ... -9-2014-12

[quote=Jeff Gundlach]"It's almost unthinkable that I would want German bonds instead of US bonds."

"As long as [the yield on bunds] is below 1%, I can't see how US 10-year yields are going to go up."
[/quote]

Another interesting slide:

Image

A rise in short term rates may have very little impact on the long end, it would simply result in a flattening of the yield curve.

Hmmmmm...
Last edited by Gosso on Tue Dec 09, 2014 4:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Dec 12, 2014 2:12 pm

I am astonished that LTT's are within 1-2% points of my current equity allocation. I am also surprised that gold has held up so well given crude's recent declines of 40%+ YTD.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by blackomen » Tue Dec 23, 2014 3:02 pm

Murphy's law: the day I make a contribution to my PP, some asset drops the ball..  this time, it's bonds (but thankfully, I added most of my contribution to gold since that was my most underweight asset and I was rebalancing from contributions.)
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Tue Dec 23, 2014 4:49 pm

blackomen wrote: Murphy's law: the day I make a contribution to my PP, some asset drops the ball..  this time, it's bonds (but thankfully, I added most of my contribution to gold since that was my most underweight asset and I was rebalancing from contributions.)
Don't even think about it. Bonds could go up next year, and gold could fall further for years. Harry's law.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Dec 23, 2014 5:35 pm

Although I have my preferred asset/s, maintaining a neutral position provides the ultimate comfort.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:20 pm

What's Driving LT Treasuries This Year?
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0&t=154060
hee hee hee  8)
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