The Bond Dream Room

[Reub]

Finally my bonds are helping me.  Come on flight-to-safety.  Just hope the stocks don't crash.

Finally your bonds are helping you? They have been helping you all year.

[Lowe]

My bonds were in the red for a year and a half.  They got in the black less than a month ago, and that's the longest stretch they've had.  Not that I don't like interest payments, but the past couple weeks is the first time I've truly felt good about holding LTT and gold.

[buddtholomew]

The result of the most volatile day I can recall for quite some time is...

PP up .07%

It sure looked like we had hit a home run this morning until it didn't.

[Reub]

My bonds were in the red for a year and a half.  They got in the black less than a month ago, and that's the longest stretch they've had.  Not that I don't like interest payments, but the past couple weeks is the first time I've truly felt good about holding LTT and gold.

TLT is up over 20% ytd and 16% in a year. EDV is up over 35% ytd and 25% in a year. Prior to that it was trending downward so you might be just above water.

[pp4me3]

It's kind of amazing sometimes how much of my finances I have on auto-pilot so I don't have to do anything AT ALL! Seriously, the only time I even have to think about it if I don't want to is when my property tax and homeowner's insurance bills come due because they are the only ones that don't get paid automatically.

So when I logged onto Fidelity for reasons I don't remember the other day I couldn't help but notice my SEP-IRA which I have mostly filled with LT bonds and gold because I prefer growth in other accounts was like WAY up. Didn't bother to investigate why but it was an interesting quick observation.

[dualstow]

Long bonds to Barrett: "How'ya like me now?" 

[barrett]

Long bonds to Barrett: "How'ya like me now?" 

Dualstow, Thanks for thinking of me. Haven't sold yet!

[Gosso]

http://www.businessinsider.com/jeffrey- ... -9-2014-12

[quote=Jeff Gundlach]"It's almost unthinkable that I would want German bonds instead of US bonds."

"As long as [the yield on bunds] is below 1%, I can't see how US 10-year yields are going to go up."[/quote]

Another interesting slide:



A rise in short term rates may have very little impact on the long end, it would simply result in a flattening of the yield curve.

Hmmmmm...

[buddtholomew]

I am astonished that LTT's are within 1-2% points of my current equity allocation. I am also surprised that gold has held up so well given crude's recent declines of 40%+ YTD.

[blackomen]

Murphy's law: the day I make a contribution to my PP, some asset drops the ball..  this time, it's bonds (but thankfully, I added most of my contribution to gold since that was my most underweight asset and I was rebalancing from contributions.)

[dualstow]

Murphy's law: the day I make a contribution to my PP, some asset drops the ball..  this time, it's bonds (but thankfully, I added most of my contribution to gold since that was my most underweight asset and I was rebalancing from contributions.)

Don't even think about it. Bonds could go up next year, and gold could fall further for years. Harry's law.

[buddtholomew]

Although I have my preferred asset/s, maintaining a neutral position provides the ultimate comfort.

[dualstow]

What's Driving LT Treasuries This Year?
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0&t=154060
hee hee hee 

[Greg]

What's Driving LT Treasuries This Year?
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0&t=154060
hee hee hee 

aww they are almost there hah. I will admit, it did take me some thinking at one point to understand how the bond yield could affect price so much.

[moda0306]

What's Driving LT Treasuries This Year?
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0&t=154060
hee hee hee 

aww they are almost there hah. I will admit, it did take me some thinking at one point to understand how the bond yield could affect price so much.

I had the "LT.bond aha moment" once in college studying how to account for bonds using "General Accounting Principles."

I was immediately interested and a tad taken aback at how bonds worked unintuitively. I found it so much more appealing than the alpha/beta/ratio stock pricing business.... Which seemed a lot more prone to unknown variables.

It wasn't until 2008 hit that I saw how well LTT's did and felt like I'd just discovered a new element.  At that point, all I'd heard about LT bonds was "careful... When rates rise you'll lose your shirt."

Not that bonds are a superior asset class... But its a shame more people don't see them for their diversification benefit.

[dualstow]

I had the "LT.bond aha moment" once in college studying how to account for bonds using "General Accounting Principles."

Well you're way ahead of me. I didn't know the investing world existed outside of stocks and lottery tickets when I was in college.

[dualstow]

Ho hum, another 300-point drop in the Dow and 1+% gain in LT treasuries.
TLT breaching 129...

[moda0306]

Ho hum, another 300-point drop in the Dow and 1+% gain in LT treasuries.
TLT breaching 129...

I love when TLT does "its thing." 

[goodasgold]

I feel sorry for all those folks, years ago, who stampeded out of bonds because the Wall Street "experts" told them that "bond rates have nowhere to go but up."

Well, they will go up some day, but in the meantime I am harvesting the rewards of St. Harry B's well-known scripture: chapter 4, verse 25, also known as 4X25.

Amen.

[buddtholomew]

Nice to see gold stepping up as well. To be honest, I would rather have gold outpace treasuries as yields have no where to go but up 

[Lang]

Swiss government bonds also went up significantly today, bringing yields to historic lows.

50 year yield - 0.744%
30 year yield - 0.666%
10 year yield - 0.280%
up to 6 year yields - negative.

[Reub]

I feel sorry for all those folks, years ago, who stampeded out of bonds because the Wall Street "experts" told them that "bond rates have nowhere to go but up."

Well, they will go up some day, but in the meantime I am harvesting the rewards of St. Harry B's well-known scripture: chapter 4, verse 25, also known as 4X25.

Amen.

Yes, Amen! Let's also give MediumTex some credit because he has been a huge proponent of long bonds over the past few years as an important part of the overall portfolio. I sure wish him well!

[Reub]

What happens when the yield curve flattens like a pancake and possibly inverts? Is it the Big Boom?

[dualstow]

What happens when the yield curve flattens like a pancake

Add chocolate chips and syrup.

[MachineGhost]

What happens when the yield curve flattens like a pancake and possibly inverts? Is it the Big Boom?

Not if the Fed has anything to say about it!