The Bond Dream Room

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Tortoise
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Tortoise » Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:25 pm

Lest we forget that LTTs sometimes help to smooth out stock volatility even on a daily basis, here are today's returns:

Market close, 03/27/2018:
S&P 500: -1.73%
TLT: +1.07%
Last edited by Tortoise on Tue Mar 27, 2018 6:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
stuper1
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by stuper1 » Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:59 pm

No, you don't seem to understand. Unless the PP as a whole is in positive territory every day, then it's not working properly as advertised. It's all or nothing. Either LTTs and gold always go up more than stocks go down on each and every day, or else forget about it, I'm going back to bogleheads or active trading.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Tortoise » Tue Mar 27, 2018 6:26 pm

If only the Ratchet Portfolio (only up, never down) actually existed!
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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:45 pm

Hey, I like the new avatar, Tortoise.
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de-fang the snake, said my filipino kali instructor. Shortly after that, he hit me in the head with a rattan stick.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Tortoise » Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:01 pm

Thanks, dualstow!

By the way, I’ve always wondered — what’s the story behind your handle?
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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:36 am

Well, it was going to be an anagram, then became the initials of the four assets:

d
au for gold
long (bonds)
st for short term (bonds)
ow --> dow (jones)

So convoluted that it took me a while to remember the 'ST' above. I kept thinking "sto..." stocks?
I remember settling on that because I liked the word "dual", referring to "pp+vp" and "stow": stash your assets.
In the end, it looks vaguely like some eastern European surname. (shrug) O0
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de-fang the snake, said my filipino kali instructor. Shortly after that, he hit me in the head with a rattan stick.
— Desert, 2016 (Nomad clothing thread)
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Tyler
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Tyler » Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:42 pm

I always pictured this.
Image
PortfolioCharts.com : a picture is worth a thousand calculations
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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:54 pm

Tyler wrote:I always pictured this.

https://www.picclickimg.com/00/s/MTAzMV ... ALL-_1.jpg
Actually, you know what? That's it.
Never mind what I wrote above.
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de-fang the snake, said my filipino kali instructor. Shortly after that, he hit me in the head with a rattan stick.
— Desert, 2016 (Nomad clothing thread)
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Tortoise
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Tortoise » Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:03 pm

This is the first image returned by Google images when I search for "dual stow":

Image

But yeah, the guns are cooler.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Thu May 03, 2018 12:36 pm

Well guys, and ladies,

I sold a bunch of my long bonds this morning at a bit above breakeven. Don't copy me, as nuanced thought did not come into play here.
If long bonds soar in price this year or next, I'll be happy about the ones I held onto. But, I don't think I would have made a significant amount of money by holding onto all of them.
It's been a nice run collecting the 3+% interest and knowing that I could hold on until I hit retirement age. And, I know that these bonds are for protection, not yield.

However:
- Some of these bonds are due to be sold in a few years anyway, per Harry's rule. They would have had only 20 years left on them.
- Despite what I said above about protection, it bothers me that new 10-years are earning nearly as much interest as my 30's.
- If we go into a Japan-style deflationary period, I'll get through it without these instruments.

So I'll have a smaller pp. No biggie.
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de-fang the snake, said my filipino kali instructor. Shortly after that, he hit me in the head with a rattan stick.
— Desert, 2016 (Nomad clothing thread)
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Thu May 03, 2018 2:54 pm

That yield curve is getting flat from 7 to 20 years. It's a tough time for a bond investor. Very emotional and confusing.

My Dream Story for bonds would be to get some 10 years at 4%, then buy junk bonds on sale during next recession.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu May 03, 2018 3:55 pm

DS, how does this change your allocation?
Where did the sale proceeds go?

If you don’t mind.
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