What is fair Value for TLT?

[modeljc]

Using July 1st each year starting in 2002, TLT was 82, 92, 84.59, 93.11, 85.80, 87.66, and 91.67 ending July 1st 2008.  So If you take a simple average for seven years you get $88.11.  The dividends in 2007 appear to be $4.19 or a yield of 4.75%.  I picked these years as they were before all the "Q" funny business and were in a period of lower inflation.

For a guy that needs to hold his nose to buy TLT, I would like to know what others think is a fair value when adding to your TLT position. 

[melveyr]

I have always thought that fair value is a term more often used when one is practicing value investing. The PP is definitely not a value strategy, so if you are actually trying to do the PP I would just follow rebalancing bands.

[modeljc]

I have always thought that fair value is a term more often used when one is practicing value investing. The PP is definitely not a value strategy, so if you are actually trying to do the PP I would just follow rebalancing bands.

For me to buy TLT I would not need to rebalanced until it hit $79.  Fair value for TLT probably is not the right term.  Let say you have a fat VP that need to be reduced at some time.  The question for the panel is what is a juicy buy for TLT with new money?  Or when is TLT out of its possible bond bubble with all the "Q" buying of treasuries?

 

[Ad Orientem]

...I would like to know what others think is a fair value when adding to your TLT position.

Whatever someone is willing to pay for it.