TLT cracks $90

[vnatale]

https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-basics ... ead%20More

TLT and the 20-Year Treasury Yield Gamble
The 20-year Treasury yield crosses 5.25% as TLT investors bet rates will fall.

[vnatale]

https://www.etf.com/sections/features/t ... n%20higher


Treasury Auctions Were a Red Flag for TLT Investors
The lack of big buyers at last week's two sales may mean that rates will go even higher.


Rob Isbitts
|
Oct 16, 2023

[vnatale]

https://www.etf.com/sections/news/tlt-b ... ead%20More

TLT & BIL Score Billion Dollar Days This Week
Both fixed income ETFs scooped up $1 Billion Each On Tuesday.

[mathjak107]

https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-basics ... ead%20More

TLT and the 20-Year Treasury Yield Gamble
The 20-year Treasury yield crosses 5.25% as TLT investors bet rates will fall.

i was going to buy some 20 year bonds on fidelity ..i found it so difficult as every attempt was killed because of price …there just didn’t seem to be a way to enter a market order so to speak so i gave up

[vnatale]

https://www.topgunfp.com/short-qqq-long-tlt/


Short QQQ, Long TLT
APPLE | FEDERAL RESERVE | FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS | MARKET COMMENTARY | QQQ | TLT
By
Greg Feirman
November 2, 2023
Reading Time: 5 minutes

[vnatale]

https://www.etf.com/sections/news/tlts- ... ead%20More


TLT’s Rare Billion Dollar Outflow Day
$1.1b was pulled from the popular fund Oct. 27, barely denting this year’s $20b haul.


Lucy Brewster
|
Oct 31, 2023

[ochotona]

Is the TLT & IEF beating over

[vnatale]

https://www.etf.com/sections/features/t ... ead%20More


Is TLT the 'Money Incineration Machine' Some Say It Is?
Jim Bianco calls the popular fund the posterchild of market misreads.


Jeff_Benjamin

Nov 06, 2023

[mathjak107]

agree with jim 100% …rates are not high , they are pretty much historically normal .

odds are we are going to see the yield curve normalize out with long term rates going higher and shorter rates going lower normalizing the curve where longer term rates are higher then short term rates .

i have been saying rising rates are kryptonite for years here when the t comes to the PP AS TO MANY COMPONENTS OF IT ARE HEAVILY LINKED TO RATES

despite the arguments and push back from some here that i got , it certainly turned out that way .

[dockinGA]

agree with jim 100% …rates are not high , they are pretty much historically normal .

odds are we are going to see the yield curve normalize out with long term rates going higher and shorter rates going lower normalizing the curve where longer term rates are higher then short term rates .

i have been saying rising rates are kryptonite for years here when the t comes to the PP AS TO MANY COMPONENTS OF IT ARE HEAVILY LINKED TO RATES

despite the arguments and push back from some here that i got , it certainly turned out that way .

I ask this in all seriousness. How can you know that this "cycle" for lack of a better word is complete? Maybe we have only reached the end of the first couple of innings. Who's to say that once the impacts of higher rates take effect that we don't see a rapid decrease in short term AND long term rates, back to the zirp world COVID jolted us out of? And in that scenario, perhaps the "kryptonite" turns out to be nothing more than a short term blip. China is already tipping into deflation, maybe the rest of the world is next. Regardless, once the full cycle has played out will be the right time to determine whether your predictions were right or wrong, not before the band even hits the field at halftime.

[mathjak107]

from a historical standpoint rates are in a normal range ….

it is very unlikely long term rates will fall much unless we hit a recession , which seems farther and farther off on the horizon.

so far tlt has taken a horrible beat down with not much of a recovery looking up in the nearer term .

the cycle has been completed .

we went from decades of higher rates to two decades of lower rates and back to the historical average rates now.

where we go from here no one knows but odds are good long term rates will stay up and shorter rates will come down normalizing the curve .

we just don’t know exactly when

[boglerdude]

The world is historically richer than average and continues getting richer. Plus shrinking opportunity for risk-free return as family formation slows. Theres a savings glut.

On the other side you have government with the money printer. if they increase money supply 10% year, no one is going to loan for less.

Except the Fed, who were handing out mortgages and student loans. They should just step out of the market. Stop paying banks 5% on the cash they gave them in 2009 and stop buying mortgages, loans, and corp bonds. But government never seems to get smaller...

[dockinGA]

from a historical standpoint rates are in a normal range ….

it is very unlikely long term rates will fall much unless we hit a recession , which seems farther and farther off on the horizon.

so far tlt has taken a horrible beat down with not much of a recovery looking up in the nearer term .

the cycle has been completed .

we went from decades of higher rates to two decades of lower rates and back to the historical average rates now.

where we go from here no one knows but odds are good long term rates will stay up and shorter rates will come down normalizing the curve .

we just don’t know exactly when

You're right, rates will fall if we hit a recession, and no one EVER sees a recession coming, right? Therefore, since everyone is predicting it's getting farther and farther away, there's no chance it will ever happen, and therefore no chance that the losses in TLT get reversed. You're also right that this cycle has been completed, simply because rates have now normalized. After a once in a lifetime pandemic and unprecedented rate hiking that may or may not even be completed yet, we have already felt the full impact of all of that and are now in a new cycle. Fully agree with your flawless reasoning there. And finally, we're back to historical averages, and we have no way of knowing what will happen in the future, but I agree with your expert reasoning and your opinion that YOU know what will happen in the future, because if I'm going to listen to one person's opinion, it's some middling hack on the internet whose major claim to fame is playing drums in some washed up rock band.

[mathjak107]

best of luck with your long term bonds ….conversation is done. why would i think you can have a conversation without insults …

still a dick in ga

[dockinGA]

best of luck with your long term bonds ….conversation is done. why would i think you can have a conversation without insults …

still a dick in ga

Why did I ever think I could have a conversation with a dunce that has an overly simplistic view of the investing world? I don't know.

[Smith1776]

[welderwannabe]

I have no idea whether the long term bond beat down is over, but I'm staying the course and I keep buying. Feels like putting money down the drain...

For me, I have no doubt the Fed will cut rates the second the economy starts to show cracks. When will that be? No idea, but I know they can't help themselves.

Personally, I am seeing cracks in the economy. The jobs report is all about health care, govt jobs, and low wage job additions. Im seeing a lot more applicants for our open positions at my company. We have less of them now.

Tech and manufacturing are showing net job losses.

I have know way of knowing for sure what the next year will bring, but I'm not changing my plans.

[boglerdude]

Id say they might create a boom for the election, but dunno if they'll ever lose again, with this new army of children(under 30s) on social media, martial law/lockdown option, and record immigrants.

[Ugly_Bird]

I have no idea whether the long term bond beat down is over, but I'm staying the course and I keep buying.

I guess this is the way. Anything else is market timing.
I have rebalanced a few weeks ago from stocks, gold and cash to LTTs, which became only 15% of the portfolio.
So, that time just had come. Now I'm back to 4x25.