Gyroscopic Investing

GT wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:43 pm

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:24 am
Back to inflation...

Hearing from two friends in Toronto area. Houses are over 1 million, and bidding wars.
Lake cottages up north are way over 1 million, sometimes 2 million, and bidding wars.

I just think this can't end well.

It is crazy - I used Zillow, and according to their assessment, my home has gone up 23K in value in 30 days - that cant be right

I hope the city does not use the same software or my property tax will be going up for 2022

Just checked with Zillow and here were my results:

LAST 30 DAY CHANGE
+$14,552 (+8.3 %)

I'm in the middle of the 2020 - 2021 fiscal year. My taxes are based upon the house's value as of January 1, 2020, which makes sense.

Therefore, 2021-2022 will be based upon January 1, 2021 valuation.

That means this increase will not be seen for another year (if it holds up). Plus if values drop one an always appeal the valuation.

GT wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:34 pm

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:19 am I was out the other day and got a coffee, which I have not done in a few months because of COVID. I nearly had a mild shock when I learned the coffee cost $5.75!

Tell the Barista you only expected a 2.6% increase on the cup of coffee

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... cid=msnews

"The rate of inflation over the past year shot up to 2.6% from 1.7% in the prior month, marking the highest level since the fall of 2018.

The Fed predicted in March that inflation would average 2.4% in 2021, using its preferred PCE price measure. The rate of inflation would then drop back down to the central bank’s 2% target by 2022."

I'll just turn around and borrow $10 from the average Joe behind me and get an extra venti caramel frankenstein latte. Then I'll turn around and say "I default on my loan, I went to Harvard and work on Wall Street. This is what we do". As I leave, I will feel stressed because the clerk didn't give me a tip

vnatale wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:41 pm

GT wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:43 pm

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:24 am Back to inflation...

Hearing from two friends in Toronto area. Houses are over 1 million, and bidding wars.
Lake cottages up north are way over 1 million, sometimes 2 million, and bidding wars.

I just think this can't end well.

It is crazy - I used Zillow, and according to their assessment, my home has gone up 23K in value in 30 days - that cant be right

I hope the city does not use the same software or my property tax will be going up for 2022

Just checked with Zillow and here were my results:

LAST 30 DAY CHANGE
+$14,552 (+8.3 %)

I'm in the middle of the 2020 - 2021 fiscal year. My taxes are based upon the house's value as of January 1, 2020, which makes sense.

Therefore, 2021-2022 will be based upon January 1, 2021 valuation.

That means this increase will not be seen for another year (if it holds up). Plus if values drop one an always appeal the valuation.

You may find - like I did - that Januarys values had spiked up as well.

Good tip on appealing the valuation if home prices drop!

Nudging this back on topic..great interview and great insights into QE and Fed impotence


https://youtu.be/14I1BdncYVo

GT wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:43 pm

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:24 am Back to inflation...

Hearing from two friends in Toronto area. Houses are over 1 million, and bidding wars.
Lake cottages up north are way over 1 million, sometimes 2 million, and bidding wars.

I just think this can't end well.

It is crazy - I used Zillow, and according to their assessment, my home has gone up 23K in value in 30 days - that cant be right

I hope the city does not use the same software or my property tax will be going up for 2022

Exactly the same for me.....up $23k, 8.9%........in 30 days.

This sucks because i live in a little 2/1 in the burbs, but i need to move immediately to a 4/2. We just found out baby #2 is on the way and I'm working from home and need an office. This would have been $400k two years ago. Will be $600k now.

SomeDude wrote: ↑Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:15 am

GT wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:43 pm

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:24 am Back to inflation...

Hearing from two friends in Toronto area. Houses are over 1 million, and bidding wars.
Lake cottages up north are way over 1 million, sometimes 2 million, and bidding wars.

I just think this can't end well.

It is crazy - I used Zillow, and according to their assessment, my home has gone up 23K in value in 30 days - that cant be right

I hope the city does not use the same software or my property tax will be going up for 2022

Exactly the same for me.....up $23k, 8.9%........in 30 days.

This sucks because i live in a little 2/1 in the burbs, but i need to move immediately to a 4/2. We just found out baby #2 is on the way and I'm working from home and need an office. This would have been $400k two years ago. Will be $600k now.

Inflation or market bubble it's still a bitter pill - only win would be moving to a lower cost of living zip code or area nearby that has not spiked up in cost yet.

I have been using this site to search for future retirement landing spots - can compare city versus city cost of living - unemployment etc..
https://www.bestplaces.net/compare-cities/

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:13 pm It seems like a perfect storm.
Supply lag in new home construction after the 08 bust
Interest rates below the free or real market forces rates->People want to buy houses
Wild money creation and stock market record highs->people feel rich
Lockdowns->Working from home->People want to move

Bingo, OSB for $50 a sheet, and northwoods lake cottages for 2 mil.

I was going to buy some vaulted gold today, but my wife made me do some repairs. Damn youtube repair videos anyway.
Tomorrow for sure!

From the financial pundits I have heard say a bubble in not in the housing cards, they indicate that the main difference between today and 08 is the creditworthiness of the people buying today. These are not people doing no-documentation loans who have stretched themselves wildly thin so a downturn in the economy will start a domino effect of foreclosures. Most of the buyers have high credit and are putting down large down payments.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/0 ... ng-bubble/

jalanlong wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:14 pm

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:13 pm It seems like a perfect storm.
Supply lag in new home construction after the 08 bust
Interest rates below the free or real market forces rates->People want to buy houses
Wild money creation and stock market record highs->people feel rich
Lockdowns->Working from home->People want to move

Bingo, OSB for $50 a sheet, and northwoods lake cottages for 2 mil.

I was going to buy some vaulted gold today, but my wife made me do some repairs. Damn youtube repair videos anyway.
Tomorrow for sure!

From the financial pundits I have heard say a bubble in not in the housing cards, they indicate that the main difference between today and 08 is the creditworthiness of the people buying today. These are not people doing no-documentation loans who have stretched themselves wildly thin so a downturn in the economy will start a domino effect of foreclosures. Most of the buyers have high credit and are putting down large down payments.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/0 ... ng-bubble/

Personally, I think it is a bubble that is being inflated. And regardless of whether the debt holders are good for the money they seem to be paying a significant amount more for properties than just a year ago.

The person who does my snow plowing also is a carpenter.

He told me that there is an enormous amount of work out there for contractors.

People have a lot of money to spend and some bookings for the work are a year out.

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:26 pm

jalanlong wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:14 pm

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:13 pm It seems like a perfect storm.
Supply lag in new home construction after the 08 bust
Interest rates below the free or real market forces rates->People want to buy houses
Wild money creation and stock market record highs->people feel rich
Lockdowns->Working from home->People want to move

Bingo, OSB for $50 a sheet, and northwoods lake cottages for 2 mil.

I was going to buy some vaulted gold today, but my wife made me do some repairs. Damn youtube repair videos anyway.
Tomorrow for sure!

From the financial pundits I have heard say a bubble in not in the housing cards, they indicate that the main difference between today and 08 is the creditworthiness of the people buying today. These are not people doing no-documentation loans who have stretched themselves wildly thin so a downturn in the economy will start a domino effect of foreclosures. Most of the buyers have high credit and are putting down large down payments.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/0 ... ng-bubble/

Personally, I think it is a bubble that is being inflated. And regardless of whether the debt holders are good for the money they seem to be paying a significant amount more for properties than just a year ago.

With loan rates this low - 3% or under - I can see folks bidding up property with the thinking "with rates this low the house is still within our budget" or "with rates this low we better act now before the rates go back up"

I remember back in the late 90's when a 30 year at 7.25% was a "good deal"

GT wrote: ↑Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:45 am

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:26 pm

jalanlong wrote: ↑Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:14 pm

I Shrugged wrote: ↑Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:13 pm It seems like a perfect storm.
Supply lag in new home construction after the 08 bust
Interest rates below the free or real market forces rates->People want to buy houses
Wild money creation and stock market record highs->people feel rich
Lockdowns->Working from home->People want to move

Bingo, OSB for $50 a sheet, and northwoods lake cottages for 2 mil.

I was going to buy some vaulted gold today, but my wife made me do some repairs. Damn youtube repair videos anyway.
Tomorrow for sure!

From the financial pundits I have heard say a bubble in not in the housing cards, they indicate that the main difference between today and 08 is the creditworthiness of the people buying today. These are not people doing no-documentation loans who have stretched themselves wildly thin so a downturn in the economy will start a domino effect of foreclosures. Most of the buyers have high credit and are putting down large down payments.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/0 ... ng-bubble/

Personally, I think it is a bubble that is being inflated. And regardless of whether the debt holders are good for the money they seem to be paying a significant amount more for properties than just a year ago.

With loan rates this low - 3% or under - I can see folks bidding up property with the thinking "with rates this low the house is still within our budget" or "with rates this low we better act now before the rates go back up"

I remember back in the late 90's when a 30 year at 7.25% was a "good deal"

A lot of people are just paying cash.

Yeah but a lot of people are jumping on the rates too.
A $300K loan at 3% for 30 years has a payment of less than $1300.

I am hoping the vehicle inflation is temporary. Used vehicle prices seem to be up around 20%.

I am hoping that it was an artificially induced shortage causing it.

2.5 million less new cars sold in 2020 and now I understand they don't have microchips they need for new vehicles.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/199 ... ince-1951/

Problem is I think rental cars were a big help in keeping used car prices down and I am sure rental cars will take a bit longer to recover.

In some ways does it feel like a lot of artificial inflation is being created?

Labor shortage created by extended unemployment benefits.

Gas shortage from pipeline outage.

Car shortage from lack of rental cars and microchip production.

Who knows what is going on with lumber but from what I understand it isn't the lack of trees.

Is some of this similar to great depression stories about government paying farmers to destroy crops?

https://livinghistoryfarm.org/farmingin ... ps_17.html

This is what happens when we go from pandemic mode and anemic inventories to opening up the flood gates and pent up demand.

We are out in the hamptons and montauk now ..we took a little vacation .

Every place has help wanted signs up …… gas is 4 bucks a gallon here …..

Restaurants here which normally are pricey are excessively pricey unlike what I found back home .

My wife and I got two lobster rolls and two beers at GIGS for lunch , a well known place here …it was 110 bucks with a tip .

A typical grilled chicken sandwich elsewhere was 45 dollars for 2 and 2 healthy juice drinks ….

This is not even the season here yet. But this is why this is the summer playground for the rich and famous

The Consumer Price Index, which measures a basket of goods as well as energy and housing costs, rose 4.2% from a year earlier. A Dow Jones survey had expected a 3.6% increase. The month-to-month gain was 0.8%, against the expected 0.2%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/12/consume ... -2021.html

Here comes some more short term inflation

https://www.agriculture.com/news/busine ... sportation

Jeff Snider on transitory inflation
https://youtu.be/V8kdgZztxgU

Michael Burry & Inflation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wNsDD0NVsk