Justifiable heresy? This fund as a LTT/STT substitute?

[ochotona]

Today's 30 years are yielding 1.29%. If the rate goes up only to 2%, the holder takes a 16% capital loss. That's way shy of the trend line. If you get up to the trend line, like 3%, you've taken a 34% hit. No fun at all. I think any reasonable person would have bailed long before then. LT bonds are wicked, evil instruments. Someday the tears will flow. I don't know when. I have TLT but in a tactical strategy. Not hodl.

If the 10 year goes from 1.29% to 3%, you take a 15% hit.

[pmward]

Today's 30 years are yielding 1.29%. If the rate goes up only to 2%, the holder takes a 16% capital loss. That's way shy of the trend line. If you get up to the trend line, like 3%, you've taken a 34% hit. No fun at all. I think any reasonable person would have bailed long before then. LT bonds are wicked, evil instruments. Someday the tears will flow. I don't know when. I have TLT but in a tactical strategy. Not hodl.

If the 10 year goes from 1.29% to 3%, you take a 15% hit.

There's risk... just like there is risk in every other asset. Even cash can lose 34% of its value. A strong 40 year long term trend needs to be respected, and you of all people should know that. "The trend is your friend until the bend at the end". Can the "bend at the end" be right now? It's possible. But, on a strong 40 year trend... one has to assume that the odds are that no it is not. I would be incredibly surprised if the top for the 40 year bull market was in on bonds. Now, as always, timeframe is important. For a short term trader, it might make sense to sell long bonds *if* they start to break down short term and look to buy back in as it gets closer to the trend line. But from the long term holders here on this forum (the long bonds in a PP are as long-term as it gets) the wailing and gnashing of teeth is getting really old. Bonds have been the best performing asset, and instead of being thankful for them doing the job they were supposed to do, everyone here wants to just hate and stress about it. Rebalancing is the very magic that makes the PP work. Those trying to market time in their PP are really defeating the whole purpose of the portfolio. I market time every day, but I do it in my VP. If someone is really that worried about bonds, then maybe the answer isn't to sell the bonds... maybe the answer is that they need a VP like me and you have where they can keep their speculations segregated from their long term holdings? The PP doesn't have to be all in or all out, but a portfolio without long bonds is not a PP.