Gyroscopic Investing

StinkyToes wrote: ↑Wed May 06, 2020 8:59 pm San Francisco Bay Area home prices still rising:

https://mortgage.originalandsafe.com/ev ... me-prices/

"Median sale prices in the region increased 1.5%, led by year-over-year gains in the counties of Alameda (5.1%), San Mateo (6.5%) and Santa Clara (4.8%), according to a Zillow analysis. Contra Costa County home prices grew 1.9% from the previous March."

pmward wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 11:40 am

StinkyToes wrote: ↑Wed May 06, 2020 8:59 pm San Francisco Bay Area home prices still rising:

https://mortgage.originalandsafe.com/ev ... me-prices/

"Median sale prices in the region increased 1.5%, led by year-over-year gains in the counties of Alameda (5.1%), San Mateo (6.5%) and Santa Clara (4.8%), according to a Zillow analysis. Contra Costa County home prices grew 1.9% from the previous March."

SF houses rising. Water wet. This has been going on for decades and still has not had any real impact on inflation.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 1:33 pm It's not just San Francisco and Silicon Valley. Someone in my family bought a house in Maryland last week. She said 32 potential buyers signed up for private showings of the house on the first weekend. Out of those, 13 of them submitted offers. This was during a lockdown.

She said the large number of showings and offers was because most of the people who live in that part of Maryland work for the government, so they're still getting paid. Real estate conditions are heavily local.

StinkyToes wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 4:35 pm Was it Bethesda or Chevy Chase?

Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 4:41 pm I, for one, think it's really cool that Maryland named a municipality after Chevy Chase.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 5:10 pm Naming a municipality after an asshole... interesting concept.

StinkyToes wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 11:56 am The latest consumer price index update is out: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

What I got right:
- food at home prices jumped in April, rising 2.6% month over month.
- medical care services prices are still rising, up 0.5% month over month.
- shelter prices did not fall (flat month over month).
- energy prices plunged, as expected.
- transportation prices plunged, as expected. Who cares. Nobody is flying.
- long-term treasury prices are roughly 4-5% lower today than when I sold.

What I got wrong:
- apparel prices plunged more than I expected (down 4.7% month over month)
- the bond market yawned at the report -- apparently traders had already factored in the big increase in food prices.

All in all I'm not upset with my little attempt at market timing. I did prevent a 4-5% decline in my LTT holdings. At the same time, I do not feel I hit the bullseye and gains were probably mostly luck. Clearly, there is no panic about stagflation and/or rising food prices. Accordingly, I plan to reinstate my long LTT position within the next day or two.

ochotona wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 12:36 pm

StinkyToes wrote: ↑Tue May 12, 2020 11:56 am The latest consumer price index update is out: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

What I got right:
- food at home prices jumped in April, rising 2.6% month over month.
- medical care services prices are still rising, up 0.5% month over month.
- shelter prices did not fall (flat month over month).
- energy prices plunged, as expected.
- transportation prices plunged, as expected. Who cares. Nobody is flying.
- long-term treasury prices are roughly 4-5% lower today than when I sold.

What I got wrong:
- apparel prices plunged more than I expected (down 4.7% month over month)
- the bond market yawned at the report -- apparently traders had already factored in the big increase in food prices.

All in all I'm not upset with my little attempt at market timing. I did prevent a 4-5% decline in my LTT holdings. At the same time, I do not feel I hit the bullseye and gains were probably mostly luck. Clearly, there is no panic about stagflation and/or rising food prices. Accordingly, I plan to reinstate my long LTT position within the next day or two.

Sometimes you get lucky. But trading bonds generally is very hard