Inflation

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Re: Inflation

Post by vnatale » Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:52 pm

jhogue wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:39 am

Vinny,
The youtube videos can help diagnose the problem too. To be clear, I did not say that I would never call the repairman; just that I now try to make the repair myself before calling in the costly repairman.


I did fix my lawn mower for less than $1.00 in parts from Home Depot.

I was using it when all of a sudden a wheel fell off.

I could see a part had fallen off somewhere in the grass not to be found again.

Took off the corresponding part from the other wheel and brought it to Home Depot. Of course, they did not have that specific part but two other things put together (again costing less than $1.00, including taxes) has done the job for the last three or so years.

But when I last had to have my washing machine repaired I had no interest in doing any research for my probably over 40 year washing machine and just called again the same person who'd last time repaired it, which he again did. Seem to remember the total cost being less than $200.

Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Inflation

Post by Xan » Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:18 pm

My favorite home repair was not too long ago: the dishwasher quit making heat.

It turned out that the problem was the connection between the control board and the heater, and the "by the book" repair was an expensive new control board. The actual fix was to put $.00001 of solder to connect the wire from the heater to the control board.
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Re: Inflation

Post by ppnewbie » Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:21 am

Xan wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:18 pm
My favorite home repair was not too long ago: the dishwasher quit making heat.

It turned out that the problem was the connection between the control board and the heater, and the "by the book" repair was an expensive new control board. The actual fix was to put $.00001 of solder to connect the wire from the heater to the control board.
Nice!
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Re: Inflation

Post by vnatale » Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:22 am

Xan wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:18 pm

My favorite home repair was not too long ago: the dishwasher quit making heat.

It turned out that the problem was the connection between the control board and the heater, and the "by the book" repair was an expensive new control board. The actual fix was to put $.00001 of solder to connect the wire from the heater to the control board.


Yes. The old "repair and replace".

My father had a secure job with the local utility company. But he was gifted at automotive repair. When he'd come home from his job there'd oftentimes be three cars be lined up in front of our house for him to work on. He was both much cheaper and much better than going to a repair place.

The one thing that he told that I always remembered was when he described to me how he fixed a car that would not start.

The typical mechanic would just automatically replace both the starter and the alternative, an expensive proposition. My father, possessing diagnostic skills, would check where voltage was and was not in the starting system. And, instead of doing the repair alternator / starter route....he'd diagnose that it was simply a dirty battery cable. He'd disconnect it, clean it, reconnect it and the car would start fine.

He could fix almost anything. As a result at a time when most families only had one TV we had six working ones in the house for four people. The neighbors would give him things that stopped working and, invariably, he'd fix them with the fixed item either going back to the neighbor or us keeping them.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Inflation

Post by stuper1 » Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:00 am

Xan wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:18 pm
My favorite home repair was not too long ago: the dishwasher quit making heat.

It turned out that the problem was the connection between the control board and the heater, and the "by the book" repair was an expensive new control board. The actual fix was to put $.00001 of solder to connect the wire from the heater to the control board.
Xan, how did you determine that this was the problem? Was it something that was visually obvious?
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Re: Inflation

Post by pp4me » Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:28 pm

Since the thread has already been hijacked in favor of home repair I'll add my two cents worth.

Last time I called a professional was last summer when my A/C unit in the garage starting leaking water. I wasn't surprised at all when the repairman told me it was time to buy a new one because that's what they tell me every time I make the mistake of taking advantage of a free yearly tune-up offer.

As soon as the guy left I went to ACE and bought a shop VAC for $60 to suction out the drainage lines because I had seen another repairman do that before. Worked like a charm and the A/C has worked perfectly ever since.

I used to be pretty much up for anything even if I had no idea what the hell I was doing. And this was long before there was any such things as a Youtube DIY video. I've tiled my own bathroom, knocked out walls, and even ran my own 220V wiring when the estimates for doing it were ridiculous.

Probably wouldn't do any of that nowadays but it was fun when I was young and foolish enough to think I could do anything.

One thing I will definitely never try again is doing my own plumbing when copper pipe is involved. I'll do anything as long as it's PVC but if it's copper I've learned the hard way I will end up calling a plumber every time, probably after lots of money and aggravation.
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Re: Inflation

Post by doodle » Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:34 pm

Start yer own bob vila thread, guys and gals! Seriously! O0
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Re: Inflation

Post by Xan » Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:41 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:00 am
Xan wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:18 pm
My favorite home repair was not too long ago: the dishwasher quit making heat.

It turned out that the problem was the connection between the control board and the heater, and the "by the book" repair was an expensive new control board. The actual fix was to put $.00001 of solder to connect the wire from the heater to the control board.
Xan, how did you determine that this was the problem? Was it something that was visually obvious?
That part was also Googling/YouTube. With this dishwasher it was very likely to have been the problem. And sure enough, looking at the control board, the original solder had burned off.
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Re: Inflation

Post by GT » Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:44 am

jhogue wrote:
Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:47 am
The effect of the internet on home repairs is deflationary:

I am not very handy at all, but I have fixed the family washing machine twice by watching youtube videos. You can watch a repairman do the job over and over again until you can break down the repair to a series of steps. Each step requires a tool, and sometimes a replacement part, which you can also order on the internet. Plus, you can still call the repairman if your own work fails to correct the problem.
The value of repair video's on YouTube is incredible. I have fixed a ton of stuff by watching YouTube video's

The last house repair was for a clogged AC condensation line
- AC repair company wanted $220 to unclog the line or $1,500 to run a new line.

I followed a YouTube video on how to unclog a line - in a nut shell - blow out the clog like a big spit ball using forced air - lung power works

Even if I do not DIY the repair - I like watching the video's so I have a concept of how the process worka and some common issues and fixes.

I never want to be burned with "your flux capacitor need to be replaced"

flux capacitor - A flux capacitor refers to a fictional piece of technology that allows time travel in the popular science-fiction film series Back to the Future.
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Re: Inflation

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:19 am

I recently had an error notification on my car - logged into a forum for my type of car. Had my local mechanic pull the code. Got all the repair notices for that code, reviewed YouTube videos on the problem and how to repair.

Took it into the dealer - they said it would be $185 to pull the code - to which I replied - it takes five minutes to pull the code and you pretty much know what the code is because this is a near recall issue.

The guy knew he could not BS his way out of it but made a half hearted attempt. Got the repair for free.

YouTube and forums (like this) are definitely a deflationary force.
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Re: Inflation

Post by vnatale » Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:37 am

ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:19 am

I recently had an error notification on my car - logged into a forum for my type of car. Had my local mechanic pull the code. Got all the repair notices for that code, reviewed YouTube videos on the problem and how to repair.

Took it into the dealer - they said it would be $185 to pull the code - to which I replied - it takes five minutes to pull the code and you pretty much know what the code is because this is a near recall issue.

The guy knew he could not BS his way out of it but made a half hearted attempt. Got the repair for free.

YouTube and forums (like this) are definitely a deflationary force.


The whole internet is a deflationary force.

Back in my baseball card "investing" days...all we had was the Beckett guide to use to decide how much to pay for a card from a dealer.

Once eBay came into existence and there were not real, documented sales of baseball cards we all saw what the real values of the cards were, which were much less than what was cited in the Beckett guide.

Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Inflation

Post by pp4me » Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:04 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:19 am
I recently had an error notification on my car - logged into a forum for my type of car. Had my local mechanic pull the code. Got all the repair notices for that code, reviewed YouTube videos on the problem and how to repair.

Took it into the dealer - they said it would be $185 to pull the code - to which I replied - it takes five minutes to pull the code and you pretty much know what the code is because this is a near recall issue.

The guy knew he could not BS his way out of it but made a half hearted attempt. Got the repair for free.

YouTube and forums (like this) are definitely a deflationary force.
You can buy a device to read the codes yourself and also clear them for less than $20. I keep one in my 15 year old Dodge because it throws codes all the time. Usually it's something that can be safely ignored (I drove all the way to Alaska and back with the check engine light on). If the light is already on and it throws a new code you won't know about it however so that's why it's a good reason to have a device to reset it if you intend to ignore some of them.
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Re: Inflation

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:07 pm

pp4me wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:04 pm
ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:19 am
I recently had an error notification on my car - logged into a forum for my type of car. Had my local mechanic pull the code. Got all the repair notices for that code, reviewed YouTube videos on the problem and how to repair.

Took it into the dealer - they said it would be $185 to pull the code - to which I replied - it takes five minutes to pull the code and you pretty much know what the code is because this is a near recall issue.

The guy knew he could not BS his way out of it but made a half hearted attempt. Got the repair for free.

YouTube and forums (like this) are definitely a deflationary force.
You can buy a device to read the codes yourself and also clear them for less than $20. I keep one in my 15 year old Dodge because it throws codes all the time. Usually it's something that can be safely ignored (I drove all the way to Alaska and back with the check engine light on). If the light is already on and it throws a new code you won't know about it however so that's why it's a good reason to have a device to reset it if you intend to ignore some of them.
Thanks - I definitely need to buy one of those
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Re: Inflation

Post by vnatale » Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:10 pm

pp4me wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:04 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:19 am

I recently had an error notification on my car - logged into a forum for my type of car. Had my local mechanic pull the code. Got all the repair notices for that code, reviewed YouTube videos on the problem and how to repair.

Took it into the dealer - they said it would be $185 to pull the code - to which I replied - it takes five minutes to pull the code and you pretty much know what the code is because this is a near recall issue.

The guy knew he could not BS his way out of it but made a half hearted attempt. Got the repair for free.

YouTube and forums (like this) are definitely a deflationary force.


You can buy a device to read the codes yourself and also clear them for less than $20. I keep one in my 15 year old Dodge because it throws codes all the time. Usually it's something that can be safely ignored (I drove all the way to Alaska and back with the check engine light on). If the light is already on and it throws a new code you won't know about it however so that's why it's a good reason to have a device to reset it if you intend to ignore some of them.


Are you able to direct us to which one we should buy at Amazon?

Thanks
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Inflation

Post by pp4me » Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:42 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:10 pm
pp4me wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:04 pm
ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:19 am
I recently had an error notification on my car - logged into a forum for my type of car. Had my local mechanic pull the code. Got all the repair notices for that code, reviewed YouTube videos on the problem and how to repair.

Took it into the dealer - they said it would be $185 to pull the code - to which I replied - it takes five minutes to pull the code and you pretty much know what the code is because this is a near recall issue.

The guy knew he could not BS his way out of it but made a half hearted attempt. Got the repair for free.

YouTube and forums (like this) are definitely a deflationary force.
You can buy a device to read the codes yourself and also clear them for less than $20. I keep one in my 15 year old Dodge because it throws codes all the time. Usually it's something that can be safely ignored (I drove all the way to Alaska and back with the check engine light on). If the light is already on and it throws a new code you won't know about it however so that's why it's a good reason to have a device to reset it if you intend to ignore some of them.
Are you able to direct us to which one we should buy at Amazon?

Thanks
Mine's a max-scan OBD2. Still only $19.99 on Amazon ....

https://www.amazon.com/Autel-MaxiScan-M ... 488&sr=8-5

You can pay a lot more if you want but I've had this one for about 10 years and it gets the job done.

I think they have something now that you can permanently plug into the OBD port and it sends signals to your cell phone if you want to get fancy.
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Re: Inflation

Post by GT » Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:47 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:10 pm
pp4me wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:04 pm
ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:19 am
I recently had an error notification on my car - logged into a forum for my type of car. Had my local mechanic pull the code. Got all the repair notices for that code, reviewed YouTube videos on the problem and how to repair.

Took it into the dealer - they said it would be $185 to pull the code - to which I replied - it takes five minutes to pull the code and you pretty much know what the code is because this is a near recall issue.

The guy knew he could not BS his way out of it but made a half hearted attempt. Got the repair for free.

YouTube and forums (like this) are definitely a deflationary force.
You can buy a device to read the codes yourself and also clear them for less than $20. I keep one in my 15 year old Dodge because it throws codes all the time. Usually it's something that can be safely ignored (I drove all the way to Alaska and back with the check engine light on). If the light is already on and it throws a new code you won't know about it however so that's why it's a good reason to have a device to reset it if you intend to ignore some of them.
Are you able to direct us to which one we should buy at Amazon?

Thanks
I bought a more expensive model $100.00 I think - Blue Driver
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPI36bKVCjk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keFaPcp_E6o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPI36bKVCjk
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Re: Inflation

Post by vnatale » Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:52 pm

pp4me wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:42 pm

vnatale wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:10 pm

pp4me wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:04 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:19 am

I recently had an error notification on my car - logged into a forum for my type of car. Had my local mechanic pull the code. Got all the repair notices for that code, reviewed YouTube videos on the problem and how to repair.

Took it into the dealer - they said it would be $185 to pull the code - to which I replied - it takes five minutes to pull the code and you pretty much know what the code is because this is a near recall issue.

The guy knew he could not BS his way out of it but made a half hearted attempt. Got the repair for free.

YouTube and forums (like this) are definitely a deflationary force.


You can buy a device to read the codes yourself and also clear them for less than $20. I keep one in my 15 year old Dodge because it throws codes all the time. Usually it's something that can be safely ignored (I drove all the way to Alaska and back with the check engine light on). If the light is already on and it throws a new code you won't know about it however so that's why it's a good reason to have a device to reset it if you intend to ignore some of them.


Are you able to direct us to which one we should buy at Amazon?

Thanks


Mine's a max-scan OBD2. Still only $19.99 on Amazon ....

https://www.amazon.com/Autel-MaxiScan-M ... 488&sr=8-5

You can pay a lot more if you want but I've had this one for about 10 years and it gets the job done.

I think they have something now that you can permanently plug into the OBD port and it sends signals to your cell phone if you want to get fancy.


Thanks.

Looks like an excellent buy as what catches my eye is an average 4+ star rating, 10,700 ratings, and over 1,000 questions asked.

I don't think a bad product gets that type of response.

Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: Inflation

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:24 am

Back to inflation...

Hearing from two friends in Toronto area. Houses are over 1 million, and bidding wars.
Lake cottages up north are way over 1 million, sometimes 2 million, and bidding wars.

I just think this can't end well.
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Re: Inflation

Post by ppnewbie » Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:47 am

I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:24 am
Back to inflation...

Hearing from two friends in Toronto area. Houses are over 1 million, and bidding wars.
Lake cottages up north are way over 1 million, sometimes 2 million, and bidding wars.

I just think this can't end well.
To me Jay Powell’s words are losing credibility by the second. I have a tertiary connection to a member of the Fed board of governors. And I can tell you these people are elitist and clueless.

If you ever hear “Let them eat cake” find the nearest bunker and hide for a few years.
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Re: Inflation

Post by stuper1 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:07 pm

I had to buy a tool at Lowes this morning. The guy who helped me find it was shaking his head, because OSB board that recently sold for $8 each just got marked up to $50 each. That's insane. The price of new homes must be skyrocketing, which will make the price of used homes do the same.
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Re: Inflation

Post by flyingpylon » Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:48 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:23 am
I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:24 am
Back to inflation...

Hearing from two friends in Toronto area. Houses are over 1 million, and bidding wars.
Lake cottages up north are way over 1 million, sometimes 2 million, and bidding wars.

I just think this can't end well.
I think another real estate meltdown ala 2008 is inevitable, and coming soon.
Just curious what you think will cause the meltdown... the underlying factors seem very different.
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Re: Inflation

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:13 pm

It seems like a perfect storm.
Supply lag in new home construction after the 08 bust
Interest rates below the free or real market forces rates->People want to buy houses
Wild money creation and stock market record highs->people feel rich
Lockdowns->Working from home->People want to move

Bingo, OSB for $50 a sheet, and northwoods lake cottages for 2 mil.

I was going to buy some vaulted gold today, but my wife made me do some repairs. Damn youtube repair videos anyway.
Tomorrow for sure!
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Re: Inflation

Post by GT » Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:34 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:19 am
I was out the other day and got a coffee, which I have not done in a few months because of COVID. I nearly had a mild shock when I learned the coffee cost $5.75!
Tell the Barista you only expected a 2.6% increase on the cup of coffee

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... cid=msnews

"The rate of inflation over the past year shot up to 2.6% from 1.7% in the prior month, marking the highest level since the fall of 2018.

The Fed predicted in March that inflation would average 2.4% in 2021, using its preferred PCE price measure. The rate of inflation would then drop back down to the central bank’s 2% target by 2022."
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Re: Inflation

Post by GT » Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:43 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:24 am
Back to inflation...

Hearing from two friends in Toronto area. Houses are over 1 million, and bidding wars.
Lake cottages up north are way over 1 million, sometimes 2 million, and bidding wars.

I just think this can't end well.

It is crazy - I used Zillow, and according to their assessment, my home has gone up 23K in value in 30 days - that cant be right

I hope the city does not use the same software or my property tax will be going up for 2022
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Re: Inflation

Post by doodle » Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:47 pm

GT wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:43 pm
I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:24 am
Back to inflation...

Hearing from two friends in Toronto area. Houses are over 1 million, and bidding wars.
Lake cottages up north are way over 1 million, sometimes 2 million, and bidding wars.

I just think this can't end well.

It is crazy - I used Zillow, and according to their assessment, my home has gone up 23K in value in 30 days - that cant be right

I hope the city does not use the same software or my property tax will be going up for 2022
If you've watched any of the strong towns series on youtube that increased tax revenue might be necessary for all these far flung suburbs to stay on top of maintaining infrastructure....that is if the feds don't come in and pay for it all
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