The Bond Dream Room

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:17 pm

Bonds are back with a vengeance this Friday. Nice.
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:24 pm

It was amazing to watch bonds, gold, and stocks today. What fireworks!
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buddtholomew
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by buddtholomew » Sat Dec 02, 2017 9:27 am

Volatility certainly increased this past week, but interestingly my portfolio barely budged.

International FAANG stocks (BABA, etc) declined quite precipitously (40% of VP), but the PP held its own with LTT’s recovering yesterday following the Flynn debacle. I almost forgot why we hold 25% in treasuries, but now I remember :-)
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:11 pm

...
Last edited by Kriegsspiel on Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Dec 02, 2017 4:12 pm

ochotona wrote:It was amazing to watch bonds, gold, and stocks today. What fireworks!
I love when my investments go up!

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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:10 pm

OUCH
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buddtholomew
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:32 pm

So where’s the bottom in TLT and ceiling in yields - 3.25, 3.5, 4% or more?
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eufo
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by eufo » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:22 pm

The technicals don't look good for TLT, but who knows? I'm definitely going to be buying some soon if this continues.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by iwealth » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:12 am

eufo wrote:The technicals don't look good for TLT, but who knows? I'm definitely going to be buying some soon if this continues.
I struggle to find a good investment thesis for bonds right now.

Wages are rising, inflation next? The economy is humming. Earnings are excellent. Tax reform done. Recession isn't on the horizon. Actually, the only thing I can see that would hamper equities short-medium term would be rising interest rates.

Tough to see a rosy scenario for bonds barring a recession. Or some unexpected geopolitical or natural disaster type of shock.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by eufo » Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:05 am

I can't find a good reason to buy anything right now, but if that allocation drops enough... I'll pick more up.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:45 am

Good to see iwealth writing again! I think I last saw you write about leaving gold saying you “get stocks”, i.e. understand them and thus presumably were about to put more in them. I’m a bit envious! I’m sticking with the pp, but I would have been fine staying in nearly all stocks in 2010 instead. Where “fine” = glorious.

More on topic: I know the 30-year bonds are held for their volatile price movements, but if the ten-year note yield keeps rising, it’s yield I’ll be thinking about. Tempted to, anyway.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by stuper1 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:03 pm

I think if you backtest the PP using 10-year Treasuries instead of 30-year Treasuries, there is not a whole lot of difference in the results.
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