Modelling TLT in an Era of Rising Rates

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Kbg
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Modelling TLT in an Era of Rising Rates

Postby Kbg » Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:59 pm

ochotona
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Re: Modelling TLT in an Era of Rising Rates

Postby ochotona » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:07 pm

I like this site. I am sort of following the Paul Novell Tactical Bond Allocation. It should keep me from getting mired in the mud.
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Kbg
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Re: Modelling TLT in an Era of Rising Rates

Postby Kbg » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:39 pm

ochotona wrote:I like this site.


Me too. I like to read the articles when they publish them. I thought this one was fantastic. Who knows what "will" happen, but a good scenario model is very helpful to get a sense of what could happen and get one thinking about options.
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Re: Modelling TLT in an Era of Rising Rates

Postby barrett » Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:54 am

Thanks for posting this, kbg.

I had a couple of thoughts...

One is that it's not clear to me if the article and graphs are using nominal or real returns (maybe I just missed that).

The other is trying to figure out if this information is actionable. It would seem that holding a mix of both long-duration treasuries and T-Bills would be prudent... which is of course what the PP already does.

Not trying to say the article was not informative. It was excellent. Just not sure if I should change anything.
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Kbg
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Re: Modelling TLT in an Era of Rising Rates

Postby Kbg » Mon Apr 24, 2017 1:07 pm

Me, not actionable. Good what if scenario. The main takeaway is we are going to lose money early in "the cycle" which will mitigate as interest rates rise. If one can't handle the early phase then it may be actionable.
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Re: Modelling TLT in an Era of Rising Rates

Postby mathjak107 » Fri Apr 28, 2017 4:32 am

the longer you go out the more greed ,fear and perception of inflation and events take control and interest rate rises on the short end mean less .

you really can't model to much any more than you can model stocks going out decades which trade on greed ,fear and perception . .

you can guess but that is about it

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