Re: Emerging Markets
Posted: Wed Mar 22, 2017 7:57 pm
Thanks. I have lots of EM
Permanent Portfolio Forum
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https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8997
Quite satisfied and the CAPE is lower about 15 so more room to grow. The dividend is like 3%.Desert wrote:So you are happy this year so far! Up 12% YTD.ochotona wrote:Thanks. I have lots of EM
Tyler, I have a question about your portfoliocharts.com website. Do you have a calculator that will do something like the following: I pick a certain number of specific assets, say 2 to 10 specific assets. Then, I ask the calculator to crunch the numbers and tell me what "dosage" of each asset would have given me the best long-term return (but based on multiple calculations using many possible start dates). Basically, I'm looking for a portfolio optimization calculator. I tell it the ingredients I want in my portfolio, and the calculator tells me the "dosage" for each ingredient.Tyler wrote:Emerging markets are a fine component to a portfolio in the right dosage.
Yeah. I believe Larry said he's taking on more risk in a recent Boglehead thread, the title of which asks, Are you taking on less risk?Tyler wrote:Emerging markets are a fine component to a portfolio in the right dosage.
But the more I read Swedroe extol the virtues of valuations and expected returns, it strikes me that despite the one passive portfolio named after him he's really not a passive investor at all. Adviser gonna advise.
I don't have that yet, but it's a good idea. I've played with it in the past, but have yet to get it to a point I'm comfortable with. It's a tricky problem to crack, both mathematically and responsibly. "Ideal" percentages are shiftier than you realize.stuper1 wrote:Tyler, I have a question about your portfoliocharts.com website. Do you have a calculator that will do something like the following: I pick a certain number of specific assets, say 2 to 10 specific assets. Then, I ask the calculator to crunch the numbers and tell me what "dosage" of each asset would have given me the best long-term return (but based on multiple calculations using many possible start dates). Basically, I'm looking for a portfolio optimization calculator. I tell it the ingredients I want in my portfolio, and the calculator tells me the "dosage" for each ingredient.Tyler wrote:Emerging markets are a fine component to a portfolio in the right dosage.
Yes, he has a definite stance here and one I don't agree with.Tyler wrote:Emerging markets are a fine component to a portfolio in the right dosage.
But the more I read Swedroe extol the virtues of valuations and expected returns, it strikes me that despite the one passive portfolio named after him he's really not a passive investor at all. Adviser gonna advise.
No, I read that part. I'm talking more about returns this year. VTI up less than 5% while VWO is up more than 12%Desert wrote:Rather than getting riled, you may want to read the article again.eufo wrote: Also, he speaks of recency, but most EM are up substantially as of "recent", so explain to me how recency might make someone avoid EM.
Bah, the whole article just gets me riled up!
The second mistake is that investors are subject to recency—allowing more recent returns to dominate their decision-making. From 2008 through 2016, the S&P 500 Index returned 7.1% per year, providing a total return of 85.5%.
During the same period, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 1.3% a year, providing a total return of -11.3%. It managed to underperform the S&P 500 Index by 8.4 percentage points per year and posted a total return underperformance gap of 96.8 percentage points.
One of the problems I've always had including a Swedroe portfolio on the site is that it's surprisingly difficult to pin down. The funds he recommends in books, articles, and posts actually change pretty often. A few Swedroe fans used to email me that I was posting the wrong portfolio, only to find out that we were looking at different sources.Desert wrote:I have no idea how you concluded that.Tyler wrote:Emerging markets are a fine component to a portfolio in the right dosage.
But the more I read Swedroe extol the virtues of valuations and expected returns, it strikes me that despite the one passive portfolio named after him he's really not a passive investor at all. Adviser gonna advise.
Totally agree. His concepts are definitely insightful and helpful. Well, except for the gold hate.Desert wrote: But even with all that, I find his concepts pretty useful. I don't think he was the guy who came up with the concept of a small slice of volatile assets coupled with a larger slice of low-volatility assets, but he's done the best job of describing, defending and popularizing the idea.
ochotona wrote:I found an EM ETF with 16% China, not 27%. It's FNDE. If I pair it with Meb Faber's EM-like GVAL, I can get the China exposure to 8%.
I am concerned China is another central bank and real estate bubble, and their growth stats are all fictions.
Especially right around Thanksgiving.hrnzkn wrote:I have experiences about turkey bonds.. there is nice income especially energy bonds. For example: energy company TUPRS risen up %100 percent only in 1 year.