How about US mid-caps?

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ochotona
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How about US mid-caps?

Post by ochotona » Sun Jul 24, 2016 8:42 pm

If you look at portfoliovisualizer.com or Portfoliocharts.com, US mid-caps really seem to be long-term outperformers. I am going to make sure I always have a generous slice of the mid-caps in my allocation. The PP with mid-caps backtests very well. Past performance no guarantee of future blah blah blah.
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Re: How about US mid-caps?

Post by Dieter » Sun Jul 24, 2016 9:05 pm

I assume familiar with Mel Lindenauers 'Unloved Mid-Caps' on Bogleheads?

The original (2000) : http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSoc ... ageIndex=1

Discussions from 2014 (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=137723) and 2015 (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=169637)

Why I don't worry when folks say that Vanguard Small Cap Value is not as 'Small' as can be.
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ochotona
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Re: How about US mid-caps?

Post by ochotona » Sun Jul 24, 2016 9:24 pm

Nice old threads, the academic debate goes on while investors pocket gains for decades.
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Re: How about US mid-caps?

Post by dualstow » Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:14 am

My pp's stock portion is 27.7% VIMAX (Vanguard's midcap blend). That wasn't a calculated move. I had a midcap and a smallcap index fund pre-pp, and lazily moved them over to the stock portion instead of starting from scratch. Good enough.
Since this is an era when many people are concerned about ‘fairness’ and ‘social justice,’ what is your ‘fair share’ of what someone else has worked for? Sowell
VUSXX is still paying over 1.5%. However, it now has 15% in (non-treasury-bill) govt obligations.
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Re: How about US mid-caps?

Post by dualstow » Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:37 pm

I was just looking through Vanguard's fund performances for funds that I own, YTD. REITs did nearly twice as well as Midcaps.
Since this is an era when many people are concerned about ‘fairness’ and ‘social justice,’ what is your ‘fair share’ of what someone else has worked for? Sowell
VUSXX is still paying over 1.5%. However, it now has 15% in (non-treasury-bill) govt obligations.
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ochotona
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Re: How about US mid-caps?

Post by ochotona » Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:40 pm

dualstow wrote:I was just looking through Vanguard's fund performances for funds that I own, YTD. REITs did nearly twice as well as Midcaps.
Agreed. I have a fantastic REIT in my HSA, symbol FREAX. 100% of my HSA is in FREAX. I'm applying dual momentum to manage it in case of a crash.
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Re: How about US mid-caps?

Post by dualstow » Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:42 pm

Of course, looking at 3, 5, 10-year returns, things start to really smooth out. As long as you're in an index, things turn out well.
These are the months that I wish I were in an all-stock portfolio. Cut to November, and maybe I won't be feeling that. >:D
Since this is an era when many people are concerned about ‘fairness’ and ‘social justice,’ what is your ‘fair share’ of what someone else has worked for? Sowell
VUSXX is still paying over 1.5%. However, it now has 15% in (non-treasury-bill) govt obligations.
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Tyler
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Re: How about US mid-caps?

Post by Tyler » Mon Aug 08, 2016 3:58 pm

You'll probably enjoy this -- MCV and MCG are now in the Portfolio Charts calculators.

https://portfoliocharts.com/2016/08/08/ ... t-updates/
Mechanical engineer, history buff, treasure manager... totally not Ben Gates
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Re: How about US mid-caps?

Post by dualstow » Mon Aug 08, 2016 8:26 pm

Awesome, Tyler.

In addition to the new calculator options, I'm lovin' the fruit analogy. And to think I spent time over the weekend using the digital color meter app and google images to get RGB values of nice colors for my spreadsheet cells. From fruit. Wasteful, I know, but my point is that I could have got half of them from your new page. O0
Since this is an era when many people are concerned about ‘fairness’ and ‘social justice,’ what is your ‘fair share’ of what someone else has worked for? Sowell
VUSXX is still paying over 1.5%. However, it now has 15% in (non-treasury-bill) govt obligations.
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Re: How about US mid-caps?

Post by MachineGhost » Mon Aug 08, 2016 8:41 pm

I never really looked at it before, but that Portfolio Finder is almost genius!

Of course, what's missing is a rational basis for clustering the assets. ;)
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Re: How about US mid-caps?

Post by Reub » Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:59 pm

Thank you for what you do, Tyler!
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Re: How about US mid-caps?

Post by Dieter » Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:52 pm

There goes (went) my evening. :) Yes, Mid-Cap well represented, esp. at the higher minimum returns.

The least painful portfolios with at least a 4% 15 year REAL CAGR (where did I get that 4%? :) all had:
* 40% stock (if inc. REIT as stock)
(20% SCV or MCV)
* 40% Bonds (if inc. TMM/Cash as bond)
* 20% Gold

Golden Butterfly-ish for the win! :)

By min CAGR, least pain portfolio:

* 4% min: LCV, SCV, ITT, STT, GLD (4.4% CAGR; -8.7% worst year)

* 5% min: MCB, SCV, TBM, LTT, GLD (5.2% CAGR; -9.8% worst year)

- Not that much more painful than the 4% least painful

- Change TBM to STT: 5.1% CAGR; -9.9% worst year

- Worst year jumps 50% (-10.7% to -15.5%) when min CAGR moved from 5.4% to 5.5 (5.6) %
(basically where jump from 40% to 60% stocks, REIT as Stocks)

* 6% min: Intl SM, TBM, LTT, REIT (6.1% CAGR, -20.1% Worst Year)
(E-gads, the tracking error; double worst year vs 5% min CAGR)

* 7% min CAGR, 1 portfolio total: MCV, Intl SM, LTT, REIT (7% CAGR; -26% worst year)
(from 50% stocks to 75% stocks)

Misc observations in top 10 by CAGR at the above levels:
* Almost no intl before ~5.8% CAGR
* TBM appeared more than expected
* Gold basically disappeared starting at 5.9%
* Not much LTT at the 4% level
* Exclude gold: volatility jumps; INTL & TIPS instead
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