Will Stocks Defy History?

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Gosso
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Will Stocks Defy History?

Post by Gosso » Tue Jan 13, 2015 6:53 pm

dragoncar
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Re: Will Stocks Defy History?

Post by dragoncar » Tue Jan 13, 2015 7:18 pm

Hmmm.. gold higher, dollar higher, bonds unsure, rate hike coming "just to see if they can"

edit: finished the "article"... is about way more than stocks.  Really interesting for the whole PP on a macro level
Last edited by dragoncar on Tue Jan 13, 2015 7:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Gosso
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Re: Will Stocks Defy History?

Post by Gosso » Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:48 am

dragoncar wrote: edit: finished the "article"... is about way more than stocks.  Really interesting for the whole PP on a macro level
I always enjoy Gundlach's presentations, lots of great research.

***

Although the above chart showing that the total returns of the S&P500 never gaining more than six years in a row seems to not check out.  Gundlach's data shows a negative return in 1994 for the S&P500, while my (and others) data shows a small gain.  This pushes the number of years to 9 years between 1991 and 1999.  And then if we ignore the minor down years then we can push the streak to 25 years between 1975-1999 (that was one hell of a run!).

                  S&P500    Total Return    +ve
              Adj. Close
1957-12-31 0.7
1958-12-31 1.0  43.4% 1
1959-12-31 1.2  11.9% 2
1960-12-31 1.2  0.4% 3
1961-12-31 1.5  26.8% 4
1962-12-31 1.4  -8.8% 0
1963-12-31 1.7  22.7% 1
1964-12-31 1.9  16.3% 2
1965-12-31 2.2  12.3% 3
1966-12-31 1.9  -10.2% 0
1967-12-31 2.4  23.9% 1
1968-12-31 2.7  11.0% 2
1969-12-31 2.5  -8.5% 0
1970-12-31 2.5  4.0% 1
1971-12-31 2.9  14.3% 2
1972-12-31 3.5  18.9% 3
1973-12-31 3.0  -14.8% 0
1974-12-31 2.2  -26.6% 0
1975-12-31 3.0  37.3% 1 1
1976-12-31 3.7  23.6% 2 2
1977-12-31 3.4  -7.5% 0 3
1978-12-31 3.6  6.3% 1 4
1979-12-31 4.3  18.3% 2 5
1980-12-31 5.7     32.2% 3 6
1981-12-31 5.4  -5.1% 0 7
1982-12-31 6.5  21.5% 1 8
1983-12-31 8.00 22.5% 2 9
1984-12-31 8.50 6.1% 3 10
1985-12-31 11.10 31.7% 4 11
1986-12-31 13.20 18.6% 5 12
1987-12-31 13.90 5.1% 6 13
1988-12-31 16.20 16.4% 7 14
1989-12-31 21.20 31.4% 8 15
1990-12-31 20.60 -3.3% 0 16
1991-12-31 26.80 30.4% 1 17
1992-12-31 28.90 7.6% 2 18
1993-12-31 31.70 10.0% 3 19
1994-12-31 31.90 0.4% 4 20
1995-12-31 44.00 38.0% 5 21
1996-12-31 53.90  22.5% 6 22
1997-12-31 71.90 33.5% 7 23
1998-12-31 92.60 28.7% 8 24
1999-12-31 111.4 20.4% 9 25
2000-12-31 100.6 -9.7% 0
2001-12-31 88.70 -11.8% 0
2002-12-31 69.60 -21.6% 0
2003-12-31 89.20 28.2% 1
2004-12-31 98.70 10.7% 2
2005-12-31 103.5 4.8% 3
2006-12-31 119.9 15.8% 4
2007-12-31 126.1 5.1% 5
2008-12-31 79.70 -36.8% 0
2009-12-31 100.7 26.4% 1
2010-12-31 115.9 15.1% 2
2011-12-31 118.0 1.9% 3
2012-12-31 136.9 16.0% 4
2013-12-31 181.2 32.3% 5
2014-12-31 205.5 13.5% 6
Lang
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Re: Will Stocks Defy History?

Post by Lang » Mon Jan 19, 2015 2:37 pm

Yeah, the chart is wrong.
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Re: Will Stocks Defy History?

Post by MilfordTony » Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:24 am

Yes, the index has never finished higher in seven consecutive years, which is something it's trying to do this year. But, "there's a first time for everything" says Scott Wren, senior global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
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Re: Will Stocks Defy History?

Post by dragoncar » Wed Mar 25, 2015 8:02 am

MilfordTony wrote: Yes, the index has never finished higher in seven consecutive years, which is something it's trying to do this year. But, "there's a first time for everything" says Scott Wren, senior global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
I was initially dubious regarding the veracity of that quote.  When I saw the impeccable credentials behind those words, however, I was quite convinced.
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