Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10268
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:07 pm

ochotona wrote: BTW, I am out of stocks now.
Yikes.
Sony’s first AI image sensor will make cameras everywhere smarter -- the verge dot com
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2721
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:26 pm

good timing
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:31 pm

Only big caps recovered.  Everything else is struggling.  Don't let the mirage of cap-weighted confuse you!  The question at this point is whether investors are going to go risk-on with broader participation or is this the false calm before the storm as it always is at market tops?

[img width=800]http://i.imgur.com/ONJWer7.png[/img]
Last edited by MachineGhost on Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2721
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:16 pm

this year has been even more of a stock pickers market then the last 7 years have been .

managed funds in the mid cap and small cap areas have been all over the place .
you have  managed funds like fidelity small cap growth up over 6% , fidelity small cap stock up over 6% ,  fidelity midcap growth strategy's  up over 5% , fidelity nasdaq composite index up over 8%
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3175
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:31 pm

The Meb Faber Ivy-10 ETF portfolio is back in US Large Caps and US REIT as of today. And bonds.

US Small Cap, all non-US stocks, non-US REIT, commodities are all not in play.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10268
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:41 pm

mathjak107 wrote: this year has been even more of a stock pickers market than the last 7 years have been .
ugh, it's sad to see these novice words on the pp forum.
Sony’s first AI image sensor will make cameras everywhere smarter -- the verge dot com
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2721
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:45 pm

get used to it , you could have almost thrown a dart at any fidelity large cap fund the last 6 out of 7 years and beat the s&p 500 .

as we were saying in another thread , the more popular indexing becomes the more money the herd throws in to the same exact stock making them even more over valued .

the value is every where else lately .

reuters reported that fidelity's  large cap funds not counting the land slide this year have brought in an extra 35 billion to share holders in large cap funds compared to the s&p 500 performance .

i own both index and managed and the managed have been out performing for a long long time . funds like fidelity contra , growth company , capital appreciation and blue chip growth all have excellent long term records and continue to do so .

when you look at the handful of managed mega funds that hold the bulk of  of investors money ,indexing isn't the winner  most of the time .

it is only when you consider the thousands of tiny funds with little investor money , most of which we never even  heard of  because  they have so little of investor money that indexing looks like a no brainier .  it isn't the fact that many of the managers of these small funds are not good stock pickers either  that hurts them . it is the fact that expenses run higher because they have relatively little investor money .

once you actually follow investor money the odds are very different .

in fact today you have high fee index funds in 401k's so stock picking ability and fund expenses are really two separate issues .

put  danoff from contra fund in to one of these tiny funds and even with his suburb stock picking ability the fund likely would lag because of expenses being so high so don't confuse the two parameters .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Mon Nov 02, 2015 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Mon Nov 02, 2015 6:27 pm

ochotona wrote: The Meb Faber Ivy-10 ETF portfolio is back in US Large Caps and US REIT as of today. And bonds.

US Small Cap, all non-US stocks, non-US REIT, commodities are all not in play.
Ehhh, I wouldn't call 10-year T-Notes, "bonds".  And REIT isn't a separate category from equity, but I digress.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2721
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:01 pm

ochotona wrote: The Meb Faber Ivy-10 ETF portfolio is back in US Large Caps and US REIT as of today. And bonds.

US Small Cap, all non-US stocks, non-US REIT, commodities are all not in play.
phew , after we already went up 1700 points it is first  back in  today ?   
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3175
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:08 pm

mathjak107 wrote: phew , after we already went up 1700 points it is first  back in  today ? 
Oh yes. The plan is to trade no more often than once a month. Whipsaws are pretty much guaranteed every few years.  And, you will underperform during bull markets. But you will never be in for a true bear. The risk adjusted return is really good over a complete market cycle.
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:08 pm

dualstow wrote: ugh, it's sad to see these novice words on the pp forum.
Are you being facetious?  Stock picking has outperformed the S&P 500 for the last 15 years...
All trades Buy&Hold (~SPY)
Initial capital 10000 10000
Ending capital 42750.44 19839.61
Net Profit 32750.44 9839.61
Net Profit % 327.50% 98.40%
Exposure % 63.40% 99.66%
Net Risk Adjusted Return % 516.57% 98.73%
Annual Return % 9.73% 4.48%
Risk Adjusted Return % 15.35% 4.49%
Total transaction costs 423.16 2

Max. trade drawdown -898.92 -6969.75
Max. trade % drawdown -52.73 -55.26
Max. system drawdown -5598.44 -6966.46
Max. system % drawdown -16.37% -55.08%
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
User avatar
MachineGhost
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10054
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 9:31 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Mon Nov 02, 2015 7:11 pm

mathjak107 wrote: phew , after we already went up 1700 points it is first  back in  today ? 
Thats the price paid for avoiding 1700+ points to the downside.  Worry less about the gains and more about the losses.  The gains will take care of themselves.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Post Reply