Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8801
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Sep 18, 2019 7:58 pm

That all makes sense, especially firewalling the pp. At first it seemed strange that new money from wages would go to the vp, but - it has to come from somewhere. (My vp came from savings/windfall, so I hadn’t thought about it much. And yes, same deal as with my question about new money- it could have gone to the pp instead).
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 272
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 2:34 am

It can definitely be difficult to maintain that firewall between your PP and VP (that's what she said), even if you have an explicit plan to do so.

The temptation to replenish the VP with PP cash can also be hard to resist.

My PP components are all ETFs, while my VP components are all individual stocks. This difference in form has made it a little bit easier in my case.

If I used the same investment vehicles in both the PP and VP that might muddy the waters.
640K ought to be enough for anybody.
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3220
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Sat Sep 21, 2019 7:26 am

Yes, HB did indeed caution that the PP is not to be a pool to replenish the VP when your bets go bad. You have a fixed amount of cash to start your VP, and if you lose it, c'est la vie.

If your active stock trading is 20% of your assets, then you don't have a PP - you have an actively managed portfolio that happens to include some PP assets. If you're comfortable with that, more power to you - but it really is something different from the passive investing philosophy that's at the core of the PP.

Also note - the many discussions about stock signals that have dominated the board lately were not (as now claimed) limited to VP speculation - I read these as applying also to the PP stock allocation. Please chime in if that's not correct. It would be good to clarify this because people new to the PP sometimes come here for information, and they could end up getting mixed/confusing messages.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1524
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: Illinois

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:11 pm

Anybody getting concerned that in the past <2 months, market indices have risen anywhere from 10-15%?

30% year so far for Nasdaq. Is it warranted?

How long ago I would have jumped out if not for the PP, thinking this is unsustainable....!
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8801
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:22 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:11 pm
Anybody getting concerned that in the past <2 months, market indices have risen anywhere from 10-15%?

30% year so far for Nasdaq. Is it warranted?

How long ago I would have jumped out if not for the PP, thinking this is unsustainable....!
But we haven't gotten to the irrational exuberance part yet.
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2879
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:40 pm

Some really good ST indicators are the RSI of course, and the deviation of the weekly or monthly candle from the 5 period exponential moving average. When the entire candle is above the average line, give the buying a rest... wait until it reconnect. It will. Same on the downside. Stop selling. RSI suggests overbought on a daily basis, and pretty much weekly as well. I'm not in a hurry with my pension lump-sum. I think there has to be a pull-back.
Attachments
candle.PNG
candle.PNG (56.55 KiB) Viewed 1966 times
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8801
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:52 pm

I don't know much about candles -- the Trader Joe's honeycrisp is very nice --
but it is interesting that the market has gone up so much on light trading volume.
If we get heavy volume, wow.
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2879
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:10 pm

Harry Dent is now selling a -70 to -90% stock market decline narrative. -90% would bring us back to July August 1987.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4302114?source=ansh
Pet Hog
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 194
Joined: Tue May 28, 2013 4:08 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Pet Hog » Fri Nov 29, 2019 2:17 am

ochotona wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:10 pm
Harry Dent is now selling a -70 to -90% stock market decline narrative. -90% would bring us back to July August 1987.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4302114?source=ansh
I think the PP would do well -- or at least it would do no worse than (most) any other strategy and, therefore, do well in relative terms -- and we'd have a great stock buying opportunity. Even if the other three assets did nothing, and stocks declined by 90%, we'd go from 25/25/25/25 to 2.5/25/25/25 -- in other words, from 100 to 77.5, a decline in the PP of 22.5%. Or about as bad as the decline in stocks was late last year and affected those who were 100% stocks.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2100
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Nov 29, 2019 3:08 am

harry dent is likely the worst predictor in history ..why he bothers to still do this stuff escapes me .
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8801
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Nov 29, 2019 3:35 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 3:08 am
harry dent is likely the worst predictor in history ..why he bothers to still do this stuff escapes me .
That’s how I feel about Stansberry. The answer in both cases: someone is paying for their useless prognostications.
You know you’re into the pp when you see expiration dates at the grocery store and think, I have some bonds coming due then.
User avatar
Kbg
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1401
Joined: Fri May 23, 2014 4:18 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Fri Nov 29, 2019 9:10 am

Doom porn to sell subscriptions, nuf said.
Post Reply