Gyroscopic Investing

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2019 3:11 pm Anybody getting concerned that in the past <2 months, market indices have risen anywhere from 10-15%?

30% year so far for Nasdaq. Is it warranted?

How long ago I would have jumped out if not for the PP, thinking this is unsustainable....!

But we haven't gotten to the irrational exuberance part yet.

Some really good ST indicators are the RSI of course, and the deviation of the weekly or monthly candle from the 5 period exponential moving average. When the entire candle is above the average line, give the buying a rest... wait until it reconnect. It will. Same on the downside. Stop selling. RSI suggests overbought on a daily basis, and pretty much weekly as well. I'm not in a hurry with my pension lump-sum. I think there has to be a pull-back.

I don't know much about candles -- the Trader Joe's honeycrisp is very nice --
but it is interesting that the market has gone up so much on light trading volume.
If we get heavy volume, wow.

Harry Dent is now selling a -70 to -90% stock market decline narrative. -90% would bring us back to July August 1987.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4302114?source=ansh

ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:10 pm Harry Dent is now selling a -70 to -90% stock market decline narrative. -90% would bring us back to July August 1987.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4302114?source=ansh

I think the PP would do well -- or at least it would do no worse than (most) any other strategy and, therefore, do well in relative terms -- and we'd have a great stock buying opportunity. Even if the other three assets did nothing, and stocks declined by 90%, we'd go from 25/25/25/25 to 2.5/25/25/25 -- in other words, from 100 to 77.5, a decline in the PP of 22.5%. Or about as bad as the decline in stocks was late last year and affected those who were 100% stocks.

harry dent is likely the worst predictor in history ..why he bothers to still do this stuff escapes me .

mathjak107 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 29, 2019 3:08 am harry dent is likely the worst predictor in history ..why he bothers to still do this stuff escapes me .

That’s how I feel about Stansberry. The answer in both cases: someone is paying for their useless prognostications.

Doom porn to sell subscriptions, nuf said.

Not a fan of doom porn, but Warren Buffet is a hardcore stock bug and he is sitting on $128 billion in cash. More than a few people think the market is getting frothy and is due for a correction.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/29/buffett ... ation.html

warren has tried to buy some private companies with that money but it did not go through . tech data was one .

he is on the hunt to buy but he has not found what he is looking for . don't forget he buys a lot of private companies we can't and they are uneffected in price by market drops since they dont trade on stock exchanges .

Yep, Warren B was outbid by Apollo Global.

Whatever has been going on since October is insane. Is it just me who thinks this is unsustainable? Yet nearly day after day, record highs. Wow.

% of stocks above 200 day MA is around 80% vs. 55% at the beginning of Oct.

I wouldn't touch stocks with a 20 foot pole unless I was in the PP, so we are all profiting from this, but it just seems so much smoke and mirrors. We go from WW3 starting to All is Well in 48 hours. It's like this is all running on a 2 hour movie timescale.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:30 am I wouldn't touch stocks with a 20 foot pole unless I was in the PP, so we are all profiting from this, but it just seems so much smoke and mirrors. We go from WW3 starting to All is Well in 48 hours. It's like this is all running on a 2 hour movie timescale.

Agreed, I've been struggling with this as well. The only way I can convince myself to buy stocks is to remind myself I believe in the system of 4 assets, and I need to hold all four. It's still not been easy, though.

Then again, I have the same struggle with LTT and gold these days

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:30 am I wouldn't touch stocks with a 20 foot pole unless I was in the PP, so we are all profiting from this, but it just seems so much smoke and mirrors. We go from WW3 starting to All is Well in 48 hours. It's like this is all running on a 2 hour movie timescale.

I'm in the opposite camp. Stocks may turn out to be overvalued at any time, decimating shares. However, investing in stocks is betting on prosperity. People still to go to work, companies continue to create value and smoke & mirrors or not, stocks continue their upward trend, even with a ten-year hiccup between 2000 and 2010. If I had the stomach for it, I'd go 90% stocks.

EDIT: added a missing preposition.

Up until a few years before retirement I was always 100% equities.......as a long term investor there was never any logic to trying to mitigate temporary short term dips and permanently reduce my long term returns .....

I was well rewarded for it despite wars , 2 back to back recessions and the lost decade for equities...today I run in maintenance mode in retirement..... I range from 25-50% equities depending on where we are in the cycle. I no longer want the volatility of high equity allocations

I concur. Equities look pretty inflated right now. But then again so do bonds. People sometimes ask me where all the inflation is that I have occasionally warned of. And I just tell them to look at the stock market. If I were speculating I'd be over-weighting cash and gold.

Overvalued is hard to put a number on ...if earnings rise , or rates come down everything has a new view .

Everyone thought stocks were way over priced in 1982 after p/es doubled ...little did anyone know the greatest bull market in history was ready to take off

We are ten years into a bull market that pretty much smokes all that has gone before. Could I be wrong? Yep. Am I making any bets here? Nope. But if I was... I'd say this market is due for a correction. It will be interesting to see where this goes from here and how much longer the good times last.

US Large caps excluded, we actually had a bear in just about every equity market Sep-Dec 2018 defined as 20% or greater DD.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:00 pm

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:06 pm It will be interesting to see where this goes from here and how much longer the good times last.

If anyone wants to take the other side, I would be willing to bet big $ that the good times last at least until after the election in Nov.

I'll take that bet. When we've gotten to the point that the market goes up on Iran accidentally shooting down an airliner, something is F'ed up. I feel some black swan is coming before Nov.

Not saying the shooting down would be a 1000 point drop, but seriously, up? And up big? Does anything cause more than a 4 hour drop in stock prices anymore?

Gotta love Trump with his 409k and isn't your account up 70/80/90% tweet.

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:51 pm I feel some black swan is coming before Nov.

Paradoxical statement. It’s not a black swan if you feel it’s coming.
Do you feel the market is overvalued, or do you think something truly strange is going to take us by surprise?

Many stocks are overvalued, but this does not feel like irrational exuberance.

I am no seer, I just think that there is so much effort behind the scenes to make things look better than they are that something is going to break. What that is I don't know. What triggers it, I don't know.

It is just my BS opinion! Am I am perpetually negative on stocks since 2008 so I am still biased by that drop.

Stocks on sale today, guys. Courtesy of coronavirus fears.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:22 am Stocks on sale today, guys. Courtesy of coronavirus fears.

It seems like every couple of years there are big news headlines about some abcVirus or xyzDisease, the stories show lots of pictures of people in public places wearing face masks and make it sound like there's going to be a global outbreak, but then after a couple of weeks it just kind of fades into the background and we don't hear any more about it.

Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I have a feeling this is another instance of the same.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:38 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:22 am Stocks on sale today, guys. Courtesy of coronavirus fears.

It seems like every couple of years there are big news headlines about some abcVirus or xyzDisease, the stories show lots of pictures of people in public places wearing face masks and make it sound like there's going to be a global outbreak, but then after a couple of weeks it just kind of fades into the background and we don't hear any more about it.

Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I have a feeling this is another instance of the same.

Yea.