Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:23 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:16 pm
I just can't see a scenario where small caps can break out, yet we hit a recession and/or sharp stock selloff in the short to medium term. Is the market starting to doubt the recession theory? Is the "smart money" starting to position themselves for a stock rally? Is the economy currently stronger than we think it is? Do we have some upside surprises waiting in the wings? Are growth names finally going to rotate out of favor with all the legal heat big name tech is taking right now? I've got so many questions starting to stir.
I wonder if it's just the usual "if it bleeds it leads" financial press overselling a dramatic recession story to sell ads. The FRED real-time (but lagged by a month) recession indicator says... no recession yet! Oil is kinda OK, unemployment hasn't turned up yet, maybe we do get a end of year rally. Wonder what the FED does this month!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:01 pm

3 1/2 months left in the year. PP was up 17.5% a couple days ago. Up 15.3% today (yes I am looking daily)

Weird sense in my stomach that someone is going to pull something out of their a** and that 15.3% is going to be in the sub 5% range by Dec 31st. Gold back at $1200. Crap like that.

But I also don't see how we can't join the global race to zero/negative rates and how TLT and gold wouldn't be the beneficiaries.

(This always happens to me when I see my portfolio return go down a percent or two)
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:16 pm

I went out searching for if anyone else in the people I follow are seeing any of the things I'm beginning to notice this week. This video here looked at a bunch of really informative and in depth charts that also do look bullish for stocks in the near term, it's worth a watch if you like that kind of thing (Ocho this would mean you, haha): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VCuBikV9vg

I'm definitely not sure what is going to happen, but I'm starting to doubt the Q4 stock selloff narrative that I have felt so sure of for months now. If this happens, I think we may see a healthy retracement in gold and bonds, but not to bring the PP down to 5% or anything that extreme. Moreover, I would see that as a buying opportunity more than anything. I use the term "healthy retracement" very intentionally here. My long term view has still not budged any, it's just the short to medium term narrative that I'm starting to doubt. I'm starting to question if the timeline I was operating off of might have been a bit too early.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:15 pm

Early to bed and early to rise makes a man healthy, wealthy, and wise.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by drumminj » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:36 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:16 pm
I'm starting to question if the timeline I was operating off of might have been a bit too early.
...and this is why we are in the pp - it's not about timing the market and shifting out of allocations. That talk belongs in the variable portfolio sub-forum!!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:38 pm

drumminj wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:36 pm
pmward wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:16 pm
I'm starting to question if the timeline I was operating off of might have been a bit too early.
...and this is why we are in the pp - it's not about timing the market and shifting out of allocations. That talk belongs in the variable portfolio sub-forum!!
This is a talk about stocks, so why would it not fit in the thread that is used... for stocks???
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:49 pm

We're just venting
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:18 am

drumminj wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:36 pm
pmward wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:16 pm
I'm starting to question if the timeline I was operating off of might have been a bit too early.
...and this is why we are in the pp - it's not about timing the market and shifting out of allocations. That talk belongs in the variable portfolio sub-forum!!
That’s how I felt about all the gold trade talk a year or two ago. I gave up. O0

I wouldn’t care except that it must be strange for someone new to the forum who hasn’t read any of Harry’s books to see all the fast-paced, momentumy, technical chatter. I mean, he’s got a chapter on how how technical stuff is mumbo jumbo.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:30 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:18 am
drumminj wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:36 pm
pmward wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:16 pm
I'm starting to question if the timeline I was operating off of might have been a bit too early.
...and this is why we are in the pp - it's not about timing the market and shifting out of allocations. That talk belongs in the variable portfolio sub-forum!!
That’s how I felt about all the gold trade talk a year or two ago. I gave up. O0

I wouldn’t care except that it must be strange for someone new to the forum who hasn’t read any of Harry’s books to see all the fast-paced, momentumy, technical chatter. I mean, he’s got a chapter on how how technical stuff is mumbo jumbo.
He has a chapter on the technical indicators he believed weren't mumbo jumbo and actually used extensively and successfully in his younger speculating years. He didn't believe all technical stuff was "mumbo jumbo". I highly encourage you to re-read "When the best laid plans..." again. 90% of the posts in this forum are about future speculation. There's simply no way to get rid of this, unless you stop going to investing forums. The gold scream room got to me last year as well, but that wasn't constructive. It was just one disgruntled person coming into the room a couple times a week basically saying "gold sucks, the PP sucks, my 70/30 is great, I have 6 million dollars and you all are poor fools" over and over again.

On this forum we have some people that love buy and hold with no VP, we have some people that love fundamental analysis, we have some people that love technical analysis, we have some people that love quantitative analysis, we have some people that love macro analysis. I think that these views are all valuable and constructive. I see no reason for anyone to poo poo the views that they don't subscribe to, especially since Harry was adamant that most people should have a VP. I also believe that due to normal human psychology most humans are better off having a VP. If all we allowed in here were discussions directly about the PP, there would be no discussion, and nobody would be here.
Last edited by pmward on Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:43 am

I’ve got it in my lap. Ok, he saw something in support and resistance — I think you and I talked about it the last time I said “mumbo jumbo” — but isn’t that totally obviated by rebalancing bands?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:49 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:43 am
I’ve got it in my lap. Ok, he saw something in support and resistance — I think you and I talked about it the last time I said “mumbo jumbo” — but isn’t that totally obviated by rebalancing bands?
FWIW, I agree with most of what Harry said on technicals, especially considering the demographic he was writing for. But no, rebalance bands are not a replacement for support and resistance. Both are used for two completely separate ends. I do agree that in the PP people are best sticking to rebalance bands. But in the VP any number of strategies are fair game. Support and resistance aka technical strategies are great. Momentum strategies are great. Buy and hold strategies are great. Quant strategies are great. I think these all are valuable. It really depends on the person and what their constitution and goals are. Personally, I know in my constitution I need a VP so I feel that I have some control. Having the VP to chase gains is a psychological tool that helps me to hold my PP and stick to the rules without modification.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:51 am

pmward wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:30 am
On this forum we have ...
I think that these views are all valuable and constructive. I see no reason for anyone to poo poo the views that they don't subscribe to, especially since Harry was adamant that most people should have a VP. I also believe that due to normal human psychology most humans are better off having a VP. If all we allowed in here were discussions directly about the PP, there would be no discussion, and nobody would be here.
I don’t recall anyone saying you couldn’t talk about it. drumminj said all that technical talk really belonged in the vp section. I was saying I felt the same way about previous talk in the gold section - someone was bragging about buying and selling all the time, which just doesn’t have anything to do with the permanent porftolio, but would be fine in the vp section.

None of it is verboten, though. And I agree that there isn’t much to talk about with respect to the workings of the portfolio itself. That’s the beauty of it. New people want to know how cash is dealt with or how to buy bonds at a certain brokerage firm and after that it practically runs itself. Thank Zod for the lounge section.
Under political pressure, Chick-Fil-A 🐓 chain cuts off the Salvation Army - wsj. :o
Vanguard treasury money market now yields 1.72%
compounded (last week, 1.73%)
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