Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:26 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:56 pm
In my VP I've bought some shares of Lululemon. 8)
You want to grab some of that yoga pants booty, eh matey?
To die, to sleep
To sleep, perchance to dream; ay, there's the rub
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
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Smith1776
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:37 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:26 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:56 pm
In my VP I've bought some shares of Lululemon. 8)
You want to grab some of that yoga pants booty, eh matey?
Of all the companies I've done Phil Fisher style scuttlebutt research on, this one was by far the most enjoyable! ^-^ ^-^ ^-^ ^-^
Early to bed and early to rise makes a man healthy, wealthy, and wise.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:40 pm

How solid arrears there?
To die, to sleep
To sleep, perchance to dream; ay, there's the rub
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
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Smith1776
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:03 pm

Solid enough for my PP, that's for sure.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:10 pm

O0 O0
Under political pressure, Chick-Fil-A 🐓 chain cuts off the Salvation Army - wsj. :o
Vanguard treasury money market now yields 1.72%
compounded (last week, 1.73%)
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Smith1776
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 6:06 pm

*Sigh*

Guys, ever the tinkerer I am: 100% of the stock portion of my PP is now officially value tilted via:

BMO MSCI Canada Value Index ETF - https://www.bmo.com/gam/ca/advisor/prod ... file%2FZVC

and

Vanguard Global Value Factor ETF - https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individua ... /?overview

I'm so lucky I'm almost entirely non-taxable... :o
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:12 pm

I just have such a hard time getting behind value these days. I just don't think it's possible for it to shine until the financial repression is finally over. Value is tilted too hard to financials, and financials struggle as long as interest rates are held artificially low or negative. I think the day will come, likely a few years from now, when the central banks finally fully paint themselves into a corner and everything blows up in their faces. When that day comes, this will be the time I'll be looking to heavily skew towards value. I think value coming back goes along with Ray Dalio's "Paradigm Shift" that he is predicting in the next decade. Until that point in time, I think it's too early; I just don't think it's possible for value to outperform with such a large allocation to financials in an artificially low/negative interest rate environment.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:18 pm

I am watching the relative momentum of growth and momentum ETFs. When value wakes up, we will know.

Value vs. Growth performance tracker
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:20 pm

And this image.

FSLSX is an old Fidelity value mutual fund, FDGRX is an old Fidelity growth mutual fund.

I'd say the worm is ready to turn, but who knows?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:47 pm

Very interesting to see small caps going up to test resistance at top of the downtrend channel line the last couple of days, while large caps, bonds, and gold are all floundering. I think that if small caps break out into a new uptrend, that it is very bullish for new highs in stocks (small caps especially have a lot of potential upside in a new stock rally) and a bearish sign for the defensives that have up until now been leading. Will be interesting to see if we get a new uptrend in small caps, and how that resolves in the other assets. Small caps are what I'm watching very closely right now, as the main reason I've been so down on stocks in general lately is that I look to small caps as the canary in the coal mine for stocks, and they've been floundering in a downtrend. But a fresh break out in the small caps would completely change my short to medium term views. Also, value is looking to be perking up vs growth short term. Maybe we are getting some early signals that the "worm is turning" as Ocho likes to say? I'm still a bit resistant to this and require further validation and follow through to buy in, but my curiosity is piqued.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:51 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:47 pm
"worm is turning" as Ocho likes to say? I'm still a bit resistant to this and require further validation and follow through to buy in, but my curiosity is piqued.
This ex-SLB employee is watching the same dynamic play out with SLB, and RSP...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:16 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:51 pm
pmward wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:47 pm
"worm is turning" as Ocho likes to say? I'm still a bit resistant to this and require further validation and follow through to buy in, but my curiosity is piqued.
This ex-SLB employee is watching the same dynamic play out with SLB, and RSP...
IJS closed less than 1% from the channel line. We have to break above and hold above that for me to really consider this scenario. We could still reject once again at the trend line, and continue on as we have been. But momentum on the daily chart macd is currently +1.1 which is the highest it's been since that sharp rally that came off of the December lows, and it's still increasing. So we have high and increasing momentum going into this channel line test. We have also had very high volume on each of the big up days in the last week. This alone is making me start to wonder what the markets know that we don't? Seeing large capitol flows out of defensives and into small caps, and small cap value specifically, is interesting and is making me start to question the assumptions I've been operating under for the last year. I just can't see a scenario where small caps can break out, yet we hit a recession and/or sharp stock selloff in the short to medium term. Is the market starting to doubt the recession theory? Is the "smart money" starting to position themselves for a stock rally? Is the economy currently stronger than we think it is? Do we have some upside surprises waiting in the wings? Are growth names finally going to rotate out of favor with all the legal heat big name tech is taking right now? Can a value rotation lead the market for at least one more leg higher? I've got so many questions starting to stir. This last year and a half has been the trickiest and most unpredictable markets I've ever seen.
Last edited by pmward on Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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