Gyroscopic Investing

pmward wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:53 am

dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:07 am I think Sophie did some backtesting that showed buying the lagging asset produced, well, a lagging total compared to the other methods.

I would be curious to see the results of that. I've always wondered which was the best way to accumulate, but I'm not aware of any tools I can use to automate this so it would require either hand coding a tool or hand testing, nether of which I've had the motivation to do, haha.

I remembered wrong. Lagging asset method does well. Tortoise remembers right: not a huge difference between #1 and #2.
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=9393&p=169302#p169386

I was unable to find the original post, but the link above is Sophie's summary of her findings.

ADDED: here's a 2013 thread on the topic. viewtopic.php?f=1&t=4452

Thanks. I've been doing the buy the lowest asset plan, and looks like the difference is small enough to not warrant any real consideration of change.

I think we ended up deciding that buying the lagging asset is a good strategy for taxable accounts because it avoids the tax costs of rebalancing. That did better than the cash accumulation method which is another way of accomplishing same.

The best performance came from distributing new contributions equally (or in accordance with target asset proportions), which is what you do in a 401K. We'd been talking about the hit you take from commissions especially for gold ETFs, so I was actually kind of surprised by the result. I didn't model the effects of taxes though.

Also, with the stock market gyrating up and down in response to Trump-isms, it's been pretty easy lately to time stock purchases to juice returns. I just got a 5% boost from a stock purchase thanks to the Mexico tariff affair. Normally I'd be not in favor of this sort of thing, but the sequence of events is so laughably predictable it's hard not to.

For taxable, I doubt anything would do better than buying the lagging asset (eg avoiding taxable events).

Similar to Sophie but with gold, I’ve been rebalancing at the current support resistance bands.

SPY total return is 18%, we're at the year-end targets many of the pundits set at the beginning of 2019, I think it just goes in a trading range or down, and I don't care to buy any more equities because bonds and gold are roaring.

I think we do have potential to go higher. However, it's clear we are looking at late cycle dynamics as it's the defensives that are driving the market higher right now, not the growth stocks. So it's not a question of whether it can go higher, it's for how much longer?

I thought bonds were going to get killed today with the stock melt-up. Apparently not. Bonds ain't buying the "everything is awesome" narrative.

Later... bonds are down!

ochotona wrote: ↑Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:16 am I thought bonds were going to get killed today with the stock melt-up. Apparently not. Bonds ain't buying the "everything is awesome" narrative.

I never realized that a melt-up = a rise, but I just looked it up and it does. I guess it's just a weird back-formation from meltdown? I always erroneously took it as more melt than up, as in, "She's breaking up, Captain!"

I would hardly consider a .8% increase a melt-up... Especially since we are still rangebound for going on 19 months now...

Happy 4th! No trading today!
Fireworks is just another way to set fire to your money. Lots of fun....Bad investment.

With the Brexit going on and the trade war and the Iran issue, maybe its time to start thinking about protecting your investment. (link removed (mod))

now that is a link to some solid investing advice spam

Topics, in the context of protection, such as dividend stocks, stop-loss orders, options trading, and much more are discussed in detail.

Although options strategies are considered advanced topics in investing, the essential concepts of options for protection are simplified so that the beginner investor will readily grasp the protection strategy.

For those of you who hold an international index, say VEU (ex-us stock etf) are you happy with its performance? Is it in your pp or vp?

I haven’t really looked. Besides an Israel etf, I don’t really hold foreign stocks these days. Occasional currency plays, like the Swiss franc & Japanese yen, but nothing serious or long-lasting.

Everything's coming up Millhouse today!

Jack Jones wrote: ↑Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:45 pm Everything's coming up Millhouse today!

Someone needs to duct-tape Trump's mouth shut... stocks dumping today after more tariffs

ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:05 pm Someone needs to duct-tape Trump's mouth shut... stocks dumping today after more tariffs

I must have missed that news while watching my gold and bonds take off.

ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:05 pm Someone needs to duct-tape Trump's mouth shut...

3M stocks then will skyrocket. :-)

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:54 pm

ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:05 pm Someone needs to duct-tape Trump's mouth shut...

3M stocks then will skyrocket. :-)

Not supposed to start till Sept 1. He's got plenty of time to walk it back. Look, here, Trump is even co-opting PP discussion boards.

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:54 pm

ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:05 pm Someone needs to duct-tape Trump's mouth shut...

3M stocks then will skyrocket. :-)

Someone should sticky these comments.

I still think Trump has people trading for him. Secret calls on disposable cell phones. "We're having cheeseburgers" means buy calls. "We're having French fries" means buy puts.

ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Aug 01, 2019 4:29 pm I still think Trump has people trading for him. Secret calls on disposable cell phones. "We're having cheeseburgers" means buy calls. "We're having French fries" means buy puts.

Oh my, the PP is working its magic today. I am up nearly 2%, and I just saw what stocks are doing....

Yeah this is a bad omen for stocks. The fall correction officially began when we lost support at 2880. We lost support at 2880 2 days ago, closed up at 2881 yesterday on very low volume, then rejected lower today. Very ominous signal, imo.

Nice recovery today. I’m almost sorry to see it.

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:10 pm Nice recovery today. I’m almost sorry to see it.

It's still on low volume. I wouldn't think too much into it.