Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pmward
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed May 29, 2019 9:11 am

Speaking of technicals... you all can thank me for the S&P losing support today. I'm vesting for a very large chunk of company stock next Monday, so of course we need to sell off right beforehand, haha. Ugly break of major support today though. I'm really hoping for a head fake false breakdown and a quick recovery back above 2800 before the weekly close. If not, the next support level is all the way down at the 2625-2675ish range so we could test those levels in the coming weeks. This is the first real technical damage of the recent pullback, we just opened the door to a possible correction if stocks don't catch a bid here and bounce back up. On the plus side... TLT is breaking out above resistance today. It's been such a strong run that I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback or sideways consolidation here. If we keep going up the next resistance level is about 132.50. I would be very surprised to see it continue to go up to those levels uncontested though, as the market is a bit extended in it's current run. But if stocks continue to sell, anything is possible. Either way, my theory of a blowoff top to new all-time highs in bonds over the next year or two to end the decades long bull run is looking on target.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by jacksonM » Sat Jun 01, 2019 10:20 am

Too bad Budd's not here any more. He always got upset when the PP didn't immediately perform as expected in the short term so today he might have been happy. With stocks taking a big hit I think my SEP-IRA which is mostly LTT's and gold might have had its biggest one day gain ever.

So will this be a continuing story for a while like it was when I first started the PP? Stay tuned.
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Kbg
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Sat Jun 01, 2019 10:28 am

I run a leveraged PP and, ya. Big pop. TMF is up huge.
pmward
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Sat Jun 01, 2019 11:45 am

Yeah I didn't think TLT was going to test the resistance level at 132.50 without a pullback first. But there seems to be nothing that can stop it, it's taken off like a rocketship. If it gets above that the next big supply level is 138.50, and all time highs are just a hop, skip and a jump from there. I'm not sure how much further this rally can go, but man it has some serious steam behind it, so who knows?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:29 am

I am very happy for PointedStick as I believe is all in stocks. As long as I live, I don't think I could ever go back to a 100% allocation. I only did that when I was starting out in investing, before my dad said, "You really should have some bonds."

S&P is closing in on its all-time high.
The guy in the latest gold commercials pronounces it “goad.” They couldn’t find someone who pronounces the “L”?
I do identify with Fredo. My brother is the smart one.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:38 am

Am I just a negative Nancy on stocks? Thank God for the PP, or I would still not be invested in stocks at all, but really why, for years now, can I not shake the feeling that the current economy is all a mirage, based off fake numbers and debt?

It must be a condition. I should be just as happy when my 40% allocation to stocks goes up as I am when my 25% allocation to gold goes up, but I just can't seem to ever be confident that the market isn't going to plunge at a moment's notice.

Must be that wall of worry?
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:42 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:38 am
Am I just a negative Nancy on stocks?
... but really why, for years now, can I not shake the feeling that the current economy is all a mirage
...
Must be that wall of worry?

You're just alive and using your brain.
I'm able to enjoy these surges while they last, but I am only using a small particle of brain. O0
Last edited by dualstow on Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
The guy in the latest gold commercials pronounces it “goad.” They couldn’t find someone who pronounces the “L”?
I do identify with Fredo. My brother is the smart one.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:42 am

I can't help thinking that going from the lower Bollinger Band to the upper in a few days isn't a good thing.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:17 pm

ochotona wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:42 am
I can't help thinking that going from the lower Bollinger Band to the upper in a few days isn't a good thing.
Depends on the timeframe you're looking at. On a daily chart yes it is, but daily chart is also for short term swing trades. On a weekly chart, which is a bit more accurate for long term investors, we are just barely above the center line. I probably wouldn't recommend anyone that is on this forum looking at a daily chart for anything, as nobody here is that short term. I think weekly and monthly charts are probably what I would recommend sticking to for analysis, as it filters out the short term noise. It helps separate the wheat from the chaff for someone that is not actively trading on a daily timeframe.
Last edited by pmward on Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by flyingpylon » Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:23 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:38 am
Am I just a negative Nancy on stocks? Thank God for the PP, or I would still not be invested in stocks at all, but really why, for years now, can I not shake the feeling that the current economy is all a mirage, based off fake numbers and debt?

It must be a condition. I should be just as happy when my 40% allocation to stocks goes up as I am when my 25% allocation to gold goes up, but I just can't seem to ever be confident that the market isn't going to plunge at a moment's notice.

Must be that wall of worry?
I used to feel similarly about the economy and stocks being a mirage, until I started to realize that the mirage includes WAY more than just that. Now it's like... why ask why... so what?
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Jun 10, 2019 7:30 pm

I get where PS is coming from. Like a Stoic or Buddhist philosophy of not being too attached to your wealth, so just let it ride on 100% stocks and screw the risk. I obviously come at it from the other angle, why bet it all on one thing if you don't have to? I like the idea of stable, robust, generational wealth, and I think that's best expressed in something like the PP.
To die, to sleep;
To sleep: perchance to dream: ay, there's the rub;
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:17 pm

Nicely put.

I actually decided just today that my taxable savings have finally grown to a size where it makes sense to consider my emergency fund and intermediate-term savings as part of my taxable PP rather than separate from it.

That change required me to make three large purchases of stocks, bonds, and gold. In isolation, the stock purchase would have made me nervous as hell since stocks seem potentially overvalued right now. But because I also bought bonds and gold to diversify, I'll sleep well tonight.

I love never having to worry about timing the market.
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