Gyroscopic Investing

Wow is that a hillbilly toothpick, i.e. a raccoon's baculum (penile bone) I see on the right? I didn't know those were used for fortune telling!

(Edited for grammar only. Don't --> didn't)

Gary Savage at http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com thinks the S&P500 could go down 30% by 2016. That's a cheery thought.  The red dotted lines he draws actually look kind of realistic and plausible when you consider market history since 1999 to the present.

ochotona wrote: Gary Savage at http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com thinks the S&P500 could go down 30% by 2016. That's a cheery thought.  The red dotted lines he draws actually look kind of realistic and plausible when you consider market history since 1999 to the present.

"Anything can happen and nothing has to happen." Predicting the future is a fools errand. The markets were closed and the employment figures were disastrous. Even with this information in-hand who could have foreseen treasuries falling today?
Let's leave forecasting to the geologists. There's no room for forecasting in investing.

So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?

This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.

I am currently 30% stocks, 69.5% various kinds of bonds more than 1/2 US Treasuries, 0.5% gold. Ready for the fireworks.

ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.

Why's that?

Jack Jones wrote:

ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.

Why's that?

Lance Roberts: The mark of a bear

ochotona wrote:

Jack Jones wrote:

ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.

Why's that?

Lance Roberts: The mark of a bear

Libertarian666 wrote: So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?

Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today

dragoncar wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote: So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?

Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today

Hey, if we're going back in time, I would prefer to have been in Tesla.

dualstow wrote:

dragoncar wrote:

Libertarian666 wrote: So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?

Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today

Hey, if we're going back in time, I would prefer to have been in Tesla.

I would have just loaded up on Apple in 2008.

...and maybe some Ford at the depths of the crisis.

ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.

I am currently 30% stocks, 69.5% various kinds of bonds more than 1/2 US Treasuries, 0.5% gold. Ready for the fireworks.

Wow, you really are ready for everything! But why such a high gold allocation? Are you some kind of doomer? 

MediumTex wrote:

dualstow wrote:

dragoncar wrote: Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today

Hey, if we're going back in time, I would prefer to have been in Tesla.

I would have just loaded up on Apple in 2008.

...and maybe some Ford at the depths of the crisis.

Lol you guys are really funny but only one of the above scenarios is actually a highly regarded investment strategy.  In fact I was in a BH portfolio and switched to PP so it's not a wild fantasy

dragoncar wrote:
Lol you guys are really funny but only one of the above scenarios is actually a highly regarded investment strategy.  In fact I was in a BH portfolio and switched to PP so it's not a wild fantasy

Growth investing isn't a highly regarded imvestment strategy?

According to the experts at CNBC, everyone should be stock picking. I say that mostly tongue-in-cheek, but who decides what is highly regarded and what isn't?

dragoncar wrote: In fact I was in a BH portfolio and switched to PP so it's not a wild fantasy

Me too, but the fantasy part is the specific timing you gave:

Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today

As has been pointed out in another thread this morning or yesterday, stocks took a big plunge before they started coming up. Of course it's hard to compete with a specific range.

iwealth wrote: According to the experts at CNBC, everyone should be stock picking. I say that mostly tongue-in-cheek, but who decides what is highly regarded and what isn't?

I see articles on the Fidelity home page like "Is now a good time to invest in ABC" or "should you have these 3 stocks in your portfolio right now" and I have to wonder who the hell they are talking to. Are there really a substantial number of investors out there that do their own stock picking? Personally, I don't know any but maybe I travel in the wrong circles.

dualstow wrote:

dragoncar wrote: In fact I was in a BH portfolio and switched to PP so it's not a wild fantasy

Me too, but the fantasy part is the specific timing you gave:

Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today

As has been pointed out in another thread this morning or yesterday, stocks took a big plunge before they started coming up. Of course it's hard to compete with a specific range.

If I hadn't switched, I'd be in a BH portfolio for the last three years.  So the specific timing is not fantasy.  I could very well have decided to keep my present allocation, and was pretty much on the fence.

Not to beat this thing to death, but you wrote

Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today

Now if you had said, "I wish I'd never abandoned Bogleheads",
that's different.

BTW, I am out of stocks now.

dualstow wrote: Not to beat this thing to death, but you wrote

Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today

Now if you had said, "I wish I'd never abandoned Bogleheads",
that's different.

Both statements are factually correct.

Well, at least the dividend yield on this crappy asset is up lately.

US stocks to the far right... they have been racing ahead for so many years, and non-US have been sucking for a long time. Maybe time for a reversal?

Its all in the timing.

ochotona wrote: BTW, I am out of stocks now.

Yikes.

good timing