Stock scream room
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- dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room
Wow is that a hillbilly toothpick, i.e. a raccoon's baculum (penile bone) I see on the right? I didn't know those were used for fortune telling!
(Edited for grammar only. Don't --> didn't)
(Edited for grammar only. Don't --> didn't)
Last edited by dualstow on Mon Apr 06, 2015 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Stock scream room
Gary Savage at http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com thinks the S&P500 could go down 30% by 2016. That's a cheery thought.
The red dotted lines he draws actually look kind of realistic and plausible when you consider market history since 1999 to the present.



- buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room
"Anything can happen and nothing has to happen." Predicting the future is a fools errand. The markets were closed and the employment figures were disastrous. Even with this information in-hand who could have foreseen treasuries falling today?ochotona wrote: Gary Savage at http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com thinks the S&P500 could go down 30% by 2016. That's a cheery thought.The red dotted lines he draws actually look kind of realistic and plausible when you consider market history since 1999 to the present.
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Let's leave forecasting to the geologists. There's no room for forecasting in investing.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: Stock scream room
So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?
Re: Stock scream room
This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.
I am currently 30% stocks, 69.5% various kinds of bonds more than 1/2 US Treasuries, 0.5% gold. Ready for the fireworks.
I am currently 30% stocks, 69.5% various kinds of bonds more than 1/2 US Treasuries, 0.5% gold. Ready for the fireworks.
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Re: Stock scream room
Why's that?ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.
Re: Stock scream room
Lance Roberts: The mark of a bearJack Jones wrote:Why's that?ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.
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Re: Stock scream room
ochotona wrote:Lance Roberts: The mark of a bearJack Jones wrote:Why's that?ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.

Re: Stock scream room
Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including todayLibertarian666 wrote: So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?
- dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room
Hey, if we're going back in time, I would prefer to have been in Tesla.dragoncar wrote:Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including todayLibertarian666 wrote: So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?
Re: Stock scream room
I would have just loaded up on Apple in 2008.dualstow wrote:Hey, if we're going back in time, I would prefer to have been in Tesla.dragoncar wrote:Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including todayLibertarian666 wrote: So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?
...and maybe some Ford at the depths of the crisis.
Q: “Do you have funny shaped balloons?”
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Re: Stock scream room
Wow, you really are ready for everything! But why such a high gold allocation? Are you some kind of doomer?ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.
I am currently 30% stocks, 69.5% various kinds of bonds more than 1/2 US Treasuries, 0.5% gold. Ready for the fireworks.

Re: Stock scream room
Lol you guys are really funny but only one of the above scenarios is actually a highly regarded investment strategy. In fact I was in a BH portfolio and switched to PP so it's not a wild fantasyMediumTex wrote:I would have just loaded up on Apple in 2008.dualstow wrote:Hey, if we're going back in time, I would prefer to have been in Tesla.dragoncar wrote: Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today
...and maybe some Ford at the depths of the crisis.
Re: Stock scream room
Growth investing isn't a highly regarded imvestment strategy?dragoncar wrote:
Lol you guys are really funny but only one of the above scenarios is actually a highly regarded investment strategy. In fact I was in a BH portfolio and switched to PP so it's not a wild fantasy
According to the experts at CNBC, everyone should be stock picking. I say that mostly tongue-in-cheek, but who decides what is highly regarded and what isn't?
- dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room
Me too, but the fantasy part is the specific timing you gave:dragoncar wrote: In fact I was in a BH portfolio and switched to PP so it's not a wild fantasy
As has been pointed out in another thread this morning or yesterday, stocks took a big plunge before they started coming up. Of course it's hard to compete with a specific range.Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today
Re: Stock scream room
I see articles on the Fidelity home page like "Is now a good time to invest in ABC" or "should you have these 3 stocks in your portfolio right now" and I have to wonder who the hell they are talking to. Are there really a substantial number of investors out there that do their own stock picking? Personally, I don't know any but maybe I travel in the wrong circles.iwealth wrote: According to the experts at CNBC, everyone should be stock picking. I say that mostly tongue-in-cheek, but who decides what is highly regarded and what isn't?
Re: Stock scream room
If I hadn't switched, I'd be in a BH portfolio for the last three years. So the specific timing is not fantasy. I could very well have decided to keep my present allocation, and was pretty much on the fence.dualstow wrote:Me too, but the fantasy part is the specific timing you gave:dragoncar wrote: In fact I was in a BH portfolio and switched to PP so it's not a wild fantasyAs has been pointed out in another thread this morning or yesterday, stocks took a big plunge before they started coming up. Of course it's hard to compete with a specific range.Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today
- dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room
Not to beat this thing to death, but you wrote
that's different.
Now if you had said, "I wish I'd never abandoned Bogleheads",Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today
that's different.
Re: Stock scream room
BTW, I am out of stocks now.
Re: Stock scream room
Both statements are factually correct.dualstow wrote: Not to beat this thing to death, but you wroteNow if you had said, "I wish I'd never abandoned Bogleheads",Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today
that's different.
Re: Stock scream room
Well, at least the dividend yield on this crappy asset is up lately.
Re: Stock scream room
US stocks to the far right... they have been racing ahead for so many years, and non-US have been sucking for a long time. Maybe time for a reversal?


- MachineGhost
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Re: Stock scream room
Its all in the timing.
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Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
- mathjak107
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Re: Stock scream room
good timing