Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue May 14, 2019 10:46 am

ochotona wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 8:59 pm
I'm a long bond and gold chicken.
For a split second I read that as you being long chicken, makes me very hungry this morning.

It seems like you buy gold all the time, though, Ocho. I was cleaning up an old phone -- just bought a new one after five years. Pixel 3a, whoo O0 -- and I saw some offline notes like "Adopt Ocho's idea of a coin a month?"

After I wrote that note, it seemed like you were buying a lot of gold here and there.
metal straws: yea or nay?
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue May 14, 2019 12:55 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue May 14, 2019 10:46 am
ochotona wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 8:59 pm
I'm a long bond and gold chicken.
For a split second I read that as you being long chicken, makes me very hungry this morning.

It seems like you buy gold all the time, though, Ocho. I was cleaning up an old phone -- just bought a new one after five years. Pixel 3a, whoo O0 -- and I saw some offline notes like "Adopt Ocho's idea of a coin a month?"

After I wrote that note, it seemed like you were buying a lot of gold here and there.

I was buying, then I hit my target and stopped. No more for now.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue May 14, 2019 2:32 pm

Well, that's not chicken.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue May 14, 2019 3:31 pm

Just bought chicken at the store. About 20% of my household food allocation.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by jhogue » Tue May 14, 2019 4:02 pm

Is this the new buddtholomew diet I have been hearing about?
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue May 14, 2019 4:15 pm

budd is a fellow weightroom aficionado, so I am sure we've both eaten more than our fair share of chickens.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu May 16, 2019 12:31 pm

Nothing short of all out nuclear war will shake this market for more than a few days/weeks. Amazing. Wonder what can cause an actual sustained downtrend.

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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Thu May 16, 2019 12:55 pm

Just as it always has, momentum works until it doesn't. Generally down trends don't start off of rumors. Matter of fact, news has much less effect on the markets than people realize. If you go back in time and look at the dates that big important news has been released and look at what happened in the markets you would be surprised at how little it actually made a difference. Even 911, which should have been murder on the stock market, was taken just as "meh" in the grand scheme. The downtrend for the bear market was already in place before 911, and 911 did not speed or slow it down, the market just continued on the trajectory and trend it already was on just as it would have done if 911 didn't happen.

The moment you start to realize that things like fundamentals, news, etc don't really matter on any timeframe measured in less than years, the more you'll be free from wondering why the market is not behaving why you expect on a given day, week, month, quarter, or even year. Technicals (measurement of current sentiment, fear, greed, momentum, trend, etc) are THE ONLY thing that matters in the short to medium term. There’s a popular saying amongst traders “the trend is your friend until the bend at the end.” What that means it is best not to bet short term against the current trend until there is technical proof that it’s over, regardless of how much conviction you have or how much it fundamentally might make sense to do so. As long as we are over the major support line at 2800, there really is not enough technical damage to even begin to consider a change in trend.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Thu May 16, 2019 10:43 pm

I cant find that post by Nisi, where he posts a stock chart, everyone reads into it, then he reveals it was randomly generated.

That said, money does slosh between assets classes, and it all cant move overnight.

Related
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 0&t=245475

Ill watch tonight. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy43vfYaxk0 Paul Tudor Jones - Trader Documentary 1987
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri May 17, 2019 9:23 am

boglerdude wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 10:43 pm
Ill watch tonight. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cy43vfYaxk0 Paul Tudor Jones - Trader Documentary 1987
Really cool! I have always thought being a Wall Street trader would have been a cool way to go in another life.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri May 17, 2019 10:31 am

Yeah, thanks for that, Boglerdude. Pasted it into my Telegram and can't wait to watch.
metal straws: yea or nay?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri May 17, 2019 10:38 am

According to wikipedia, Paul Tudor Jones was attempting to buy up all the copies of that doc back in the day to prevent people from watching it. He didn't say why, but speculation is that it revealed too much of his methods.
Only a few prefer liberty-- the majority seek nothing more than fair masters.
- Gaius Sallustius Crispus
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