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Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 3:02 pm
by dualstow
I suppose today is a good day for Lowe, who is tired of the steadily climbing stock market. Dow down 316 pts. S&P down 1.64% whoops, numbers are still coming in. Both down more than that.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 3:33 pm
by Cortopassi
Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.

I am going to have to think about why that is! 

Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...

Maybe not...

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:22 pm
by ochotona
Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
Because you know there is a strong long-term up-trend to stocks, whereas the real price of gold simply oscillates around between extremes. That's why.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:44 pm
by stuper1
ochotona wrote:
Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
Because you know there is a strong long-term up-trend to stocks, whereas the real price of gold simply oscillates around between extremes. That's why.
Have you looked at returns for stocks and gold from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010?  That's a fairly recent 10-year period.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:20 pm
by buddtholomew
Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.

I am going to have to think about why that is! 

Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...

Maybe not...
I mentally frame the PP as a portfolio to withstand equity declines and not as an investment that counter-balances gold declines. We are in good company when stocks decline, but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:46 pm
by dualstow
Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
I am going to have to think about why that is! 
Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...
..
yes please.  :)

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:50 pm
by Xan
buddtholomew wrote:...but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.
What kind of support do you need from other investors?  What do they have to do with your portfolio?

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:57 pm
by ochotona
stuper1 wrote: Have you looked at returns for stocks and gold from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010?  That's a fairly recent 10-year period.
Looking at one 10-year period is almost getting to be cherry-picking. Did you look at gold and stocks from an even longer period, 1980-2001? Pretty much the reverse case from 2000-2010.

Look at the performance of stocks and gold from 1915-2015. Stocks really grows over the long term with economies. Gold reacts to crises of certain kinds.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:02 pm
by ochotona
buddtholomew wrote: I mentally frame the PP as a portfolio to withstand equity declines and not as an investment that counter-balances gold declines.
The problem with gold is that is can get unreasonably expensive at times, and the overpricedness lasts for years at a time. If you buy high and sell it low, you're not helping yourself. That's just the basic facts.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:36 am
by buddtholomew
Xan wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:...but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.
What kind of support do you need from other investors?  What do they have to do with your portfolio?
I was merely offering an explanation for the emotions Cortopassi was struggling to reconcile.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Wed Mar 11, 2015 2:03 pm
by Reub
jabba wrote: I noticed martin armstrong today had a post of a possible drop until may. I might put a short on.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/0 ... -5-months/
Is his prediction based on the value of pi like some of his other predictions are?

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:55 pm
by ochotona
Twitter was alive last week around the fact that the S&P 500 has gone a very long stretch without being able to put together back-to-back gains. As of Friday, that streak is now 28 trading days. A streak that long is so rare, it’s only happened twice before since World War II—in May 1970 and April 1994.

Charles Schwab & Co. commentary today