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Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 3:33 pm
by Cortopassi
Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.

I am going to have to think about why that is! 

Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...

Maybe not...

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:22 pm
by ochotona
Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
Because you know there is a strong long-term up-trend to stocks, whereas the real price of gold simply oscillates around between extremes. That's why.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:44 pm
by stuper1
ochotona wrote:
Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
Because you know there is a strong long-term up-trend to stocks, whereas the real price of gold simply oscillates around between extremes. That's why.
Have you looked at returns for stocks and gold from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010?  That's a fairly recent 10-year period.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:20 pm
by buddtholomew
Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.

I am going to have to think about why that is! 

Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...

Maybe not...
I mentally frame the PP as a portfolio to withstand equity declines and not as an investment that counter-balances gold declines. We are in good company when stocks decline, but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:46 pm
by dualstow
Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
I am going to have to think about why that is! 
Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...
..
yes please.  :)

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:50 pm
by Xan
buddtholomew wrote:...but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.
What kind of support do you need from other investors?  What do they have to do with your portfolio?

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:57 pm
by ochotona
stuper1 wrote: Have you looked at returns for stocks and gold from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010?  That's a fairly recent 10-year period.
Looking at one 10-year period is almost getting to be cherry-picking. Did you look at gold and stocks from an even longer period, 1980-2001? Pretty much the reverse case from 2000-2010.

Look at the performance of stocks and gold from 1915-2015. Stocks really grows over the long term with economies. Gold reacts to crises of certain kinds.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:02 pm
by ochotona
buddtholomew wrote: I mentally frame the PP as a portfolio to withstand equity declines and not as an investment that counter-balances gold declines.
The problem with gold is that is can get unreasonably expensive at times, and the overpricedness lasts for years at a time. If you buy high and sell it low, you're not helping yourself. That's just the basic facts.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:36 am
by buddtholomew
Xan wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:...but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.
What kind of support do you need from other investors?  What do they have to do with your portfolio?
I was merely offering an explanation for the emotions Cortopassi was struggling to reconcile.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Wed Mar 11, 2015 2:03 pm
by Reub
jabba wrote: I noticed martin armstrong today had a post of a possible drop until may. I might put a short on.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/0 ... -5-months/
Is his prediction based on the value of pi like some of his other predictions are?

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:55 pm
by ochotona
Twitter was alive last week around the fact that the S&P 500 has gone a very long stretch without being able to put together back-to-back gains. As of Friday, that streak is now 28 trading days. A streak that long is so rare, it’s only happened twice before since World War II—in May 1970 and April 1994.

Charles Schwab & Co. commentary today

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:41 pm
by Pointedstick
ochotona wrote: Twitter was alive last week around the fact that the S&P 500 has gone a very long stretch without being able to put together back-to-back gains. As of Friday, that streak is now 28 trading days. A streak that long is so rare, it’s only happened twice before since World War II—in May 1970 and April 1994.

Charles Schwab & Co. commentary today
Image

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:20 am
by dualstow
Wow is that a hillbilly toothpick, i.e. a raccoon's baculum (penile bone) I see on the right? I didn't know those were used for fortune telling!

(Edited for grammar only. Don't --> didn't)

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2015 10:45 am
by ochotona
Gary Savage at http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com thinks the S&P500 could go down 30% by 2016. That's a cheery thought.  ::) The red dotted lines he draws actually look kind of realistic and plausible when you consider market history since 1999 to the present.

Image

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2015 1:00 pm
by buddtholomew
ochotona wrote: Gary Savage at http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com thinks the S&P500 could go down 30% by 2016. That's a cheery thought.  ::) The red dotted lines he draws actually look kind of realistic and plausible when you consider market history since 1999 to the present.

Image
"Anything can happen and nothing has to happen." Predicting the future is a fools errand. The markets were closed and the employment figures were disastrous. Even with this information in-hand who could have foreseen treasuries falling today?
Let's leave forecasting to the geologists. There's no room for forecasting in investing.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2015 12:00 pm
by Libertarian666
So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:16 pm
by ochotona
This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.

I am currently 30% stocks, 69.5% various kinds of bonds more than 1/2 US Treasuries, 0.5% gold. Ready for the fireworks.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:21 pm
by Jack Jones
ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.
Why's that?

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:27 pm
by ochotona
Jack Jones wrote:
ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.
Why's that?
Lance Roberts: The mark of a bear

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:41 pm
by Jack Jones
ochotona wrote:
Jack Jones wrote:
ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.
Why's that?
Lance Roberts: The mark of a bear
Image

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2015 2:58 pm
by dragoncar
Libertarian666 wrote: So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?
Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:05 pm
by dualstow
dragoncar wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote: So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?
Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today
Hey, if we're going back in time, I would prefer to have been in Tesla.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2015 3:29 pm
by MediumTex
dualstow wrote:
dragoncar wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote: So are PP critics who are using the PP happy now? Would they prefer to be all in stocks?
Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today
Hey, if we're going back in time, I would prefer to have been in Tesla.
I would have just loaded up on Apple in 2008.

...and maybe some Ford at the depths of the crisis.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Wed Sep 02, 2015 11:15 pm
by Libertarian666
ochotona wrote: This week would be a really good time to lighten up on stocks.

I am currently 30% stocks, 69.5% various kinds of bonds more than 1/2 US Treasuries, 0.5% gold. Ready for the fireworks.
Wow, you really are ready for everything! But why such a high gold allocation? Are you some kind of doomer?  :P

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Thu Sep 03, 2015 1:18 am
by dragoncar
MediumTex wrote:
dualstow wrote:
dragoncar wrote: Yea I would prefer to have been in stocks the past three years up to and including today
Hey, if we're going back in time, I would prefer to have been in Tesla.
I would have just loaded up on Apple in 2008.

...and maybe some Ford at the depths of the crisis.
Lol you guys are really funny but only one of the above scenarios is actually a highly regarded investment strategy.  In fact I was in a BH portfolio and switched to PP so it's not a wild fantasy