Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8785
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 10, 2015 3:02 pm

I suppose today is a good day for Lowe, who is tired of the steadily climbing stock market. Dow down 316 pts. S&P down 1.64% whoops, numbers are still coming in. Both down more than that.
RIP Paul Volcker
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1517
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: Illinois

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 10, 2015 3:33 pm

Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.

I am going to have to think about why that is! 

Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...

Maybe not...
But what do I know?
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2879
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:22 pm

Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
Because you know there is a strong long-term up-trend to stocks, whereas the real price of gold simply oscillates around between extremes. That's why.
stuper1
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 797
Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2013 7:18 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by stuper1 » Tue Mar 10, 2015 4:44 pm

ochotona wrote:
Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
Because you know there is a strong long-term up-trend to stocks, whereas the real price of gold simply oscillates around between extremes. That's why.
Have you looked at returns for stocks and gold from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010?  That's a fairly recent 10-year period.
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2048
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:20 pm

Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.

I am going to have to think about why that is! 

Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...

Maybe not...
I mentally frame the PP as a portfolio to withstand equity declines and not as an investment that counter-balances gold declines. We are in good company when stocks decline, but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8785
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: next to emotional support peacock
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:46 pm

Cortopassi wrote: Very strange, I should be just as upset that stocks are down this much as when gold goes down this much.  But I am not.
I am going to have to think about why that is! 
Maybe because it has become a given that tomorrow will be a 400 point up day...
..
yes please.  :)
RIP Paul Volcker
User avatar
Xan
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 2350
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:51 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Xan » Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:50 pm

buddtholomew wrote:...but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.
What kind of support do you need from other investors?  What do they have to do with your portfolio?
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2879
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:57 pm

stuper1 wrote: Have you looked at returns for stocks and gold from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010?  That's a fairly recent 10-year period.
Looking at one 10-year period is almost getting to be cherry-picking. Did you look at gold and stocks from an even longer period, 1980-2001? Pretty much the reverse case from 2000-2010.

Look at the performance of stocks and gold from 1915-2015. Stocks really grows over the long term with economies. Gold reacts to crises of certain kinds.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2879
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:02 pm

buddtholomew wrote: I mentally frame the PP as a portfolio to withstand equity declines and not as an investment that counter-balances gold declines.
The problem with gold is that is can get unreasonably expensive at times, and the overpricedness lasts for years at a time. If you buy high and sell it low, you're not helping yourself. That's just the basic facts.
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2048
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Mar 11, 2015 9:36 am

Xan wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:...but there is minimal support from other investors when gold retracts.
What kind of support do you need from other investors?  What do they have to do with your portfolio?
I was merely offering an explanation for the emotions Cortopassi was struggling to reconcile.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
Reub
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3700
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2011 5:44 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Reub » Wed Mar 11, 2015 2:03 pm

jabba wrote: I noticed martin armstrong today had a post of a possible drop until may. I might put a short on.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/0 ... -5-months/
Is his prediction based on the value of pi like some of his other predictions are?
Last edited by Reub on Wed Mar 11, 2015 7:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2879
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Mar 30, 2015 7:55 pm

Twitter was alive last week around the fact that the S&P 500 has gone a very long stretch without being able to put together back-to-back gains. As of Friday, that streak is now 28 trading days. A streak that long is so rare, it’s only happened twice before since World War II—in May 1970 and April 1994.

Charles Schwab & Co. commentary today
Post Reply