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Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:48 am
by dualstow
I took a look. While I agree with the author that holding stocks long term does not magically alleviate risk and turn them into bonds, it is the only way to fly if you are going to hold stocks at all. I mean I would rather shun equities altogether rather than try to time. How bout you?
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:42 am
dualstow wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:10 pm
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm
Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
+1. Time in the market not timing the market.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170911171 ... -time.html

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:22 am
by Kriegsspiel
My objective is to have enough assets I don't have to worry about it.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:35 am
by ochotona
Ned Davis Research, in their monthly outlook, has lowered the stock allocation for their portfolio for risk averse investors to 40%. Normally it's 55%. This is the most cautious they've been since the GFC of 2008.

"On December 20, we reduced our recommended stock allocation by 10% and shifted it to bonds in our balanced account strategy. We have reached the downside extreme of what we would ever recommend for stock allocation, which has ranged from 40% to an upside limit of 70% since first constraining the allocation in 2008."

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:29 pm
by Kriegsspiel
Image

The Buffet Indicator is at 130. My total stock allocation right now is just under 50%.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:23 pm
by dualstow
Dow is now out of correction territory.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:41 pm
by ochotona
Is the U.S. Stock Market Bubble Bursting? A New Model Suggests “Yes”

GMO White Paper, Marn Tarlie, January 2019

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx16Ir ... sp=sharing

Key Points
■ A new model suggests that from early 2017 through much of 2018, the U.S. stock market was a bubble.
■ Driven by negative changes in sentiment, the bubble started to deflate in the fourth quarter of 2018, in spite of strong fundamentals.
■ Our advice, consistent with our portfolio positions established in Q1 2018 – as usual, we were early – is to own as little U.S. equity as your career risk allows.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:19 am
by boglerdude
Bulls dont die of old age. Where's the malinvestment? China could poop the bed. Oil could go up, if high rates squeeze frackers

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:59 am
by ochotona
boglerdude wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:19 am
Bulls dont die of old age. Where's the malinvestment? China could poop the bed. Oil could go up, if high rates squeeze frackers
Malinvestment... Everything?

Buying back shares with covenant lite BBB corporate debt (wink) instead of property, plant, equipment, R&D?

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Tue Jan 22, 2019 11:20 pm
by boglerdude
Plants to build what? There's ample global industrial capacity

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:52 am
by Kriegsspiel
There was a good quote in The Age Of Stagnation by Satyajit Das where a corporate CEO said something like "Money isn't the problem. I can go out tomorrow and get a billion dollars at 0% interest. The problem I have is; what am I going to do with it? What am I going to spend it on?" They don't seem to have good ideas for it, so they buy back shares.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:28 am
by ochotona
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:52 am
There was a good quote in The Age Of Stagnation by Satyajit Das where a corporate CEO said something like "Money isn't the problem. I can go out tomorrow and get a billion dollars at 0% interest. The problem I have is; what am I going to do with it? What am I going to spend it on?" They don't seem to have good ideas for it, so they buy back shares.
Like all of the Stars Wars sequels still had to invoke the frickin Death Star. Completely out of ideas, so buy back shares, get my bonus, pump and dump.

Re: Stock scream room

Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:46 am
by dualstow
Not only do you appear to read a book a week, Kriegs, but you also have excellent recall.
Seems that way.
If it's anything denser than Stephen King, I can't read a book in a week.