Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:00 pm

From my friend Lance Roberts:

"Last week, we further reduced equity risk further bringing exposures down to just 40% of our portfolios. On a rally to the 200-dma which fails, we will reduce risk more and add negative hedges to portfolios."
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:17 am

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... n-6-25-mom

Why would you loan someone money to buy stocks?
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:10 pm

The stock market drop today was epic. It was like when a newborn baby's poo migrates out of the their diaper and up their back. Yechhh.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:36 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:10 pm
The stock market drop today was epic. It was like when a newborn baby's poo migrates out of the their diaper and up their back. Yechhh.
Actually only #10 most volatile this year...I think I heard that Bloomberg (mute if wrong)

However, A+ on the visuals!!! LOL
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:00 pm

The Schwab talking heads - Randy Frederick, Liz Ann Sonders, Kathy Jones... are getting really bearish. If you read their tweets, you get a sense of this.

@lizannsonders
@randyafrederick
@kathyjones
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Tortoise
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:39 pm

If they had predicted the timing of the stock market downturn in advance, then I'd be impressed.

Just about anybody can look at a stock market graph and say, "Yup, sure looks like the graph has been sloping down for the past month or two," and then tell a story that rationalizes why it might continue to go down for a while.

::)
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:42 pm

Yep. I love that people can make a living off of it.
Turns out you *can* profit from predictions, but only if you are the predictor. And you don't have to be right!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm

My rebalance for Jan has turned from cash going into about 50% bonds and 50% gold and selling some stocks to

6% bonds, 17% gold and 75% stocks.

I'm not sure I like the turn of this....

My PP at a low for the year now.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Xan » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm
My PP at a low for the year now.
They have medicine for that now. :-)
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:52 pm

Xan wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm
My PP at a low for the year now.
They have medicine for that now. :-)
That crosses my mind every damn time I use pp in a sentence. O0
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:20 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:52 pm
Xan wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm
My PP at a low for the year now.
They have medicine for that now. :-)
That crosses my mind every damn time I use pp in a sentence. O0
HAH!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:36 pm

It’s funniest when people are arguing about the strategy and keep saying “PP” in the middle of a bunch of serious statements. ;D
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:31 am

A lot of the stock market selling he's going to turn out to be tax-loss harvesting. people talk about a Santa Claus rally but the Santa Claus rally really doesn't statistically take place until after Christmas.

Postscript Dec 25 - Lance Roberts looking for 2620-2650 as a possible oversold rally target.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by whatchamacallit » Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm

Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:10 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm
Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
+1. Time in the market not timing the market.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:23 pm

Not every day you see 1000 points, wow.

Still, my rebalance is now buy 98% stocks, a sliver of bonds, and actually selling gold. Interesting.

We'll see what that looks like when I really will rebalance in early Jan after contributing to my IRAs.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:42 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:10 pm
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm
Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
+1. Time in the market not timing the market.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170911171 ... -time.html
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:48 am

I took a look. While I agree with the author that holding stocks long term does not magically alleviate risk and turn them into bonds, it is the only way to fly if you are going to hold stocks at all. I mean I would rather shun equities altogether rather than try to time. How bout you?
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:42 am
dualstow wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:10 pm
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm
Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
+1. Time in the market not timing the market.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170911171 ... -time.html
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:22 am

My objective is to have enough assets I don't have to worry about it.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:35 am

Ned Davis Research, in their monthly outlook, has lowered the stock allocation for their portfolio for risk averse investors to 40%. Normally it's 55%. This is the most cautious they've been since the GFC of 2008.

"On December 20, we reduced our recommended stock allocation by 10% and shifted it to bonds in our balanced account strategy. We have reached the downside extreme of what we would ever recommend for stock allocation, which has ranged from 40% to an upside limit of 70% since first constraining the allocation in 2008."
Last edited by ochotona on Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Jan 17, 2019 1:29 pm

Image

The Buffet Indicator is at 130. My total stock allocation right now is just under 50%.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jan 17, 2019 2:23 pm

Dow is now out of correction territory.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Jan 21, 2019 6:41 pm

Is the U.S. Stock Market Bubble Bursting? A New Model Suggests “Yes”

GMO White Paper, Marn Tarlie, January 2019

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx16Ir ... sp=sharing

Key Points
■ A new model suggests that from early 2017 through much of 2018, the U.S. stock market was a bubble.
■ Driven by negative changes in sentiment, the bubble started to deflate in the fourth quarter of 2018, in spite of strong fundamentals.
■ Our advice, consistent with our portfolio positions established in Q1 2018 – as usual, we were early – is to own as little U.S. equity as your career risk allows.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:19 am

Bulls dont die of old age. Where's the malinvestment? China could poop the bed. Oil could go up, if high rates squeeze frackers
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:59 am

boglerdude wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:19 am
Bulls dont die of old age. Where's the malinvestment? China could poop the bed. Oil could go up, if high rates squeeze frackers
Malinvestment... Everything?

Buying back shares with covenant lite BBB corporate debt (wink) instead of property, plant, equipment, R&D?
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