Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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boglerdude
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:37 pm

Stocks are inflation + dividend. Gambling/hot money cycles in the short term

Inflation can be "good" when its smart loans being made or gov printing money for infrastructure. 2007 was dumb loans inflation and Iraq war
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:24 am

Schwab, 10/12/2018:

"Stock market action recently illustrates again why it’s important for investors to remain disciplined and diversified in a way consistent with their risk tolerances and investment goals. The bull market may have more legs, and upside surprises are possible, but risks have been rising over the past year or so, leading us to be more cautious and recommend that investors limit the risk in their portfolios."

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/ ... erspective
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:42 pm

Just picked up Ned Davis Research Group's note for October at Schwab.com

MORE EVIDENCE OF A GLOBAL BEAR MARKET
With Technology and U.S. benchmarks joining other global indices on the downside, it has become increasingly evident that stocks remain in a global bear market that started in January. Our Bear Watch report has moved closer to providing its confirmation, in which case we will be likely to downgrade equities to an underweight allocation for the first time in nearly a decade. An oversold bounce would provide a selling opportunity
for that downgrade.

55% equites, 35% bonds, 10% cash is their recommendation for risk-intolerant conservative investors.

{Ochotona is 45% equities, 35% bonds, 10% cash, 10% gold}
Don
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Don » Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:57 pm

ochotona wrote:
Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:42 pm
Just picked up Ned Davis Research Group's note for October at Schwab.com

MORE EVIDENCE OF A GLOBAL BEAR MARKET
With Technology and U.S. benchmarks joining other global indices on the downside, it has become increasingly evident that stocks remain in a global bear market that started in January. Our Bear Watch report has moved closer to providing its confirmation, in which case we will be likely to downgrade equities to an underweight allocation for the first time in nearly a decade. An oversold bounce would provide a selling opportunity
for that downgrade.

55% equites, 35% bonds, 10% cash is their recommendation for risk-intolerant conservative investors.

{Ochotona is 45% equities, 35% bonds, 10% cash, 10% gold}
"Bonds" is such a vague term. What kind of bonds?
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:30 pm

Yeah, right... Subprime is contained blah blah blah

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin dismissed concerns that China’s weakest economic growth since the global financial crisis could spill into other emerging markets and destabilize U.S. financial markets.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:12 am

November: Ned Davis is 50% equities now
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