Page 18 of 58
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:07 pm
by dualstow
I'm glad to hear it. My family has done well with Netflix but I'm below breakeven myself, on that one.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:21 pm
by Cortopassi
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:06 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:36 pm
Now that's a rally. Might even last through the day.
Insane!
NFLX up 15%+ after hours on EPS beat.
NFLX is up there with AMZN on the number of people who have been bashing it for burning cash for years but they have yet to stop going up. And the people who bash have not stopped bashing. One in particular I recall was calling to short AMZN in the $600s a couple years ago.
I don't really understand the passion some people have with their positions on certain stocks (or gold, or bonds). Why beat yourself up with the wrong analysis, day after day, year after year? Yeah, maybe one day you'll be right and AMZN will lose 50% of its value but that will be to a level higher than when you called to short it.
Just own some of all of them with the PP.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:30 pm
by dualstow
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:21 pm
I don't really understand the passion some people have with their positions on certain stocks (or gold, or bonds). Why beat yourself up with the wrong analysis, day after day, year after year?
In the late 90s and early aughts, it was short sellers on AOL and Yahoo Message Boards trying to convince everyone to sell.
this bloated pig is going down!
Now, there's no excuse.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:46 pm
by ochotona
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:11 am
by dualstow
Yeah, saw that on Bogleheads. Now they’re resuming that perennial argument about international vs all U.S. Why do I even lurk.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:37 pm
by boglerdude
Stocks are inflation + dividend. Gambling/hot money cycles in the short term
Inflation can be "good" when its smart loans being made or gov printing money for infrastructure. 2007 was dumb loans inflation and Iraq war
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:24 am
by ochotona
Schwab, 10/12/2018:
"Stock market action recently illustrates again why it’s important for investors to remain disciplined and diversified in a way consistent with their risk tolerances and investment goals. The bull market may have more legs, and upside surprises are possible, but risks have been rising over the past year or so, leading us to be more cautious and recommend that investors limit the risk in their portfolios."
https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/ ... erspective
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:42 pm
by ochotona
Just picked up Ned Davis Research Group's note for October at Schwab.com
MORE EVIDENCE OF A GLOBAL BEAR MARKET
With Technology and U.S. benchmarks joining other global indices on the downside, it has become increasingly evident that stocks remain in a global bear market that started in January. Our Bear Watch report has moved closer to providing its confirmation, in which case we will be likely to downgrade equities to an underweight allocation for the first time in nearly a decade. An oversold bounce would provide a selling opportunity
for that downgrade.
55% equites, 35% bonds, 10% cash is their recommendation for risk-intolerant conservative investors.
{Ochotona is 45% equities, 35% bonds, 10% cash, 10% gold}
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:57 pm
by Don
ochotona wrote: ↑Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:42 pm
Just picked up Ned Davis Research Group's note for October at Schwab.com
MORE EVIDENCE OF A GLOBAL BEAR MARKET
With Technology and U.S. benchmarks joining other global indices on the downside, it has become increasingly evident that stocks remain in a global bear market that started in January. Our Bear Watch report has moved closer to providing its confirmation, in which case we will be likely to downgrade equities to an underweight allocation for the first time in nearly a decade. An oversold bounce would provide a selling opportunity
for that downgrade.
55% equites, 35% bonds, 10% cash is their recommendation for risk-intolerant conservative investors.
{Ochotona is 45% equities, 35% bonds, 10% cash, 10% gold}
"Bonds" is such a vague term. What kind of bonds?
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:30 pm
by ochotona
Yeah, right... Subprime is contained blah blah blah
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin dismissed concerns that China’s weakest economic growth since the global financial crisis could spill into other emerging markets and destabilize U.S. financial markets.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:12 am
by ochotona
November: Ned Davis is 50% equities now
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:10 pm
by ochotona
Another day another puke. Could be January 2008 again for all we know...
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:00 pm
by ochotona
From my friend Lance Roberts:
"Last week, we further reduced equity risk further bringing exposures down to just 40% of our portfolios. On a rally to the 200-dma which fails, we will reduce risk more and add negative hedges to portfolios."
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:17 am
by boglerdude
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:10 pm
by ochotona
The stock market drop today was epic. It was like when a newborn baby's poo migrates out of the their diaper and up their back. Yechhh.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:36 pm
by Kbg
ochotona wrote: ↑Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:10 pm
The stock market drop today was epic. It was like when a newborn baby's poo migrates out of the their diaper and up their back. Yechhh.
Actually only #10 most volatile this year...I think I heard that Bloomberg (mute if wrong)
However, A+ on the visuals!!! LOL
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:00 pm
by ochotona
The Schwab talking heads - Randy Frederick, Liz Ann Sonders, Kathy Jones... are getting really bearish. If you read their tweets, you get a sense of this.
@lizannsonders
@randyafrederick
@kathyjones
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:39 pm
by Tortoise
If they had predicted the timing of the stock market downturn in advance, then I'd be impressed.
Just about anybody can look at a stock market graph and say, "Yup, sure looks like the graph has been sloping down for the past month or two," and then tell a story that rationalizes why it might continue to go down for a while.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:42 pm
by dualstow
Yep. I love that people can make a living off of it.
Turns out you *can* profit from predictions, but only if you are the predictor. And you don't have to be right!
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm
by Cortopassi
My rebalance for Jan has turned from cash going into about 50% bonds and 50% gold and selling some stocks to
6% bonds, 17% gold and 75% stocks.
I'm not sure I like the turn of this....
My PP at a low for the year now.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm
by Xan
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm
My PP at a low for the year now.
They have medicine for that now. :-)
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:52 pm
by dualstow
Xan wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm
My PP at a low for the year now.
They have medicine for that now. :-)
That crosses my mind every damn time I use pp in a sentence.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 4:20 pm
by Cortopassi
dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:52 pm
Xan wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:46 pm
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Wed Dec 19, 2018 3:16 pm
My PP at a low for the year now.
They have medicine for that now. :-)
That crosses my mind every damn time I use pp in a sentence.
HAH!
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:36 pm
by Smith1776
It’s funniest when people are arguing about the strategy and keep saying “PP” in the middle of a bunch of serious statements.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Thu Dec 20, 2018 12:31 am
by ochotona
A lot of the stock market selling he's going to turn out to be tax-loss harvesting. people talk about a Santa Claus rally but the Santa Claus rally really doesn't statistically take place until after Christmas.
Postscript Dec 25 - Lance Roberts looking for 2620-2650 as a possible oversold rally target.