Page 18 of 58
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:43 pm
by ochotona
dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:05 pm
#markettiming
What do you all think about trimming VP stocks after the midterm elections?
Go RealInvestmentAdvice.com, subscribe to the weekly Newsletter, and use the Real 401(k) Manager (at the bottom of the weekly newsletter) to manage the VP. Lance Roberts will advise you to be 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100% of full strength. It's free.
Or, use my blog.
Subscribe to my GEM blog, and use the signals for managing the VP. Not as nuanced as Lance Roberts, all-in or all-out.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:37 pm
by dualstow
Is that a yes or a no, Ocho?
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:40 am
by buddtholomew
ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:43 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:05 pm
#markettiming
What do you all think about trimming VP stocks after the midterm elections?
Go RealInvestmentAdvice.com, subscribe to the weekly Newsletter, and use the Real 401(k) Manager (at the bottom of the weekly newsletter) to manage the VP. Lance Roberts will advise you to be 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100% of full strength. It's free.
Or, use my blog.
Subscribe to my GEM blog, and use the signals for managing the VP. Not as nuanced as Lance Roberts, all-in or all-out.
Interesting life you’ve carved out for yourself Ocho.
Just visited your blog.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:33 am
by ochotona
I am super glad I ran into trend-following. I think it was Machine Ghost who tipped me off.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:02 pm
by buddtholomew
Ochotona = Pika?
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:36 pm
by dualstow
Now that's a rally. Might even last through the day.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:06 pm
by buddtholomew
dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:36 pm
Now that's a rally. Might even last through the day.
Insane!
NFLX up 15%+ after hours on EPS beat.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:07 pm
by dualstow
I'm glad to hear it. My family has done well with Netflix but I'm below breakeven myself, on that one.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:21 pm
by Cortopassi
buddtholomew wrote: ↑Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:06 pm
dualstow wrote: ↑Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:36 pm
Now that's a rally. Might even last through the day.
Insane!
NFLX up 15%+ after hours on EPS beat.
NFLX is up there with AMZN on the number of people who have been bashing it for burning cash for years but they have yet to stop going up. And the people who bash have not stopped bashing. One in particular I recall was calling to short AMZN in the $600s a couple years ago.
I don't really understand the passion some people have with their positions on certain stocks (or gold, or bonds). Why beat yourself up with the wrong analysis, day after day, year after year? Yeah, maybe one day you'll be right and AMZN will lose 50% of its value but that will be to a level higher than when you called to short it.
Just own some of all of them with the PP.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:30 pm
by dualstow
Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:21 pm
I don't really understand the passion some people have with their positions on certain stocks (or gold, or bonds). Why beat yourself up with the wrong analysis, day after day, year after year?
In the late 90s and early aughts, it was short sellers on AOL and Yahoo Message Boards trying to convince everyone to sell.
this bloated pig is going down!
Now, there's no excuse.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:46 pm
by ochotona
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:11 am
by dualstow
Yeah, saw that on Bogleheads. Now they’re resuming that perennial argument about international vs all U.S. Why do I even lurk.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:37 pm
by boglerdude
Stocks are inflation + dividend. Gambling/hot money cycles in the short term
Inflation can be "good" when its smart loans being made or gov printing money for infrastructure. 2007 was dumb loans inflation and Iraq war
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:24 am
by ochotona
Schwab, 10/12/2018:
"Stock market action recently illustrates again why it’s important for investors to remain disciplined and diversified in a way consistent with their risk tolerances and investment goals. The bull market may have more legs, and upside surprises are possible, but risks have been rising over the past year or so, leading us to be more cautious and recommend that investors limit the risk in their portfolios."
https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/ ... erspective
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:42 pm
by ochotona
Just picked up Ned Davis Research Group's note for October at Schwab.com
MORE EVIDENCE OF A GLOBAL BEAR MARKET
With Technology and U.S. benchmarks joining other global indices on the downside, it has become increasingly evident that stocks remain in a global bear market that started in January. Our Bear Watch report has moved closer to providing its confirmation, in which case we will be likely to downgrade equities to an underweight allocation for the first time in nearly a decade. An oversold bounce would provide a selling opportunity
for that downgrade.
55% equites, 35% bonds, 10% cash is their recommendation for risk-intolerant conservative investors.
{Ochotona is 45% equities, 35% bonds, 10% cash, 10% gold}
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:57 pm
by Don
ochotona wrote: ↑Sat Oct 20, 2018 8:42 pm
Just picked up Ned Davis Research Group's note for October at Schwab.com
MORE EVIDENCE OF A GLOBAL BEAR MARKET
With Technology and U.S. benchmarks joining other global indices on the downside, it has become increasingly evident that stocks remain in a global bear market that started in January. Our Bear Watch report has moved closer to providing its confirmation, in which case we will be likely to downgrade equities to an underweight allocation for the first time in nearly a decade. An oversold bounce would provide a selling opportunity
for that downgrade.
55% equites, 35% bonds, 10% cash is their recommendation for risk-intolerant conservative investors.
{Ochotona is 45% equities, 35% bonds, 10% cash, 10% gold}
"Bonds" is such a vague term. What kind of bonds?
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:30 pm
by ochotona
Yeah, right... Subprime is contained blah blah blah
JERUSALEM (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin dismissed concerns that China’s weakest economic growth since the global financial crisis could spill into other emerging markets and destabilize U.S. financial markets.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:12 am
by ochotona
November: Ned Davis is 50% equities now
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Mon Nov 19, 2018 5:10 pm
by ochotona
Another day another puke. Could be January 2008 again for all we know...
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sat Nov 24, 2018 2:00 pm
by ochotona
From my friend Lance Roberts:
"Last week, we further reduced equity risk further bringing exposures down to just 40% of our portfolios. On a rally to the 200-dma which fails, we will reduce risk more and add negative hedges to portfolios."
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:17 am
by boglerdude
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:10 pm
by ochotona
The stock market drop today was epic. It was like when a newborn baby's poo migrates out of the their diaper and up their back. Yechhh.
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Tue Dec 04, 2018 6:36 pm
by Kbg
ochotona wrote: ↑Tue Dec 04, 2018 4:10 pm
The stock market drop today was epic. It was like when a newborn baby's poo migrates out of the their diaper and up their back. Yechhh.
Actually only #10 most volatile this year...I think I heard that Bloomberg (mute if wrong)
However, A+ on the visuals!!! LOL
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 7:00 pm
by ochotona
The Schwab talking heads - Randy Frederick, Liz Ann Sonders, Kathy Jones... are getting really bearish. If you read their tweets, you get a sense of this.
@lizannsonders
@randyafrederick
@kathyjones
Re: Stock scream room
Posted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 1:39 pm
by Tortoise
If they had predicted the timing of the stock market downturn in advance, then I'd be impressed.
Just about anybody can look at a stock market graph and say, "Yup, sure looks like the graph has been sloping down for the past month or two," and then tell a story that rationalizes why it might continue to go down for a while.
