Gyroscopic Investing

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:08 pm

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:34 pm It’s always GLD and TLT taking the beating.
No one ever mentioned the pitfalls of GLD and TLT cannobalizing each other...

Budd, it's always mentioned, in the form of "The assets are not designed to all move in the same direction."

Haha, see the irony in that statement with everything down today. Just venting...just sad that we sit for 8 years waiting for either GLD or TLT to rally enough to rebalance. Now that stocks are feeling some pain, they still go down. Hmmm..

Not that it makes anyone feel better, but gold got slammed in 2008 as stocks were getting hit, while bonds kind of treaded water before popping, so this is not unusual.

Desert wrote: ↑Wed Aug 01, 2018 7:54 am It's definitely a loss. Mark to market is the most honest accounting method, because we don't know what the future holds. We only know the value of an asset in the present. It might go up or down in the future, nobody knows.

My Dad never invested a single penny in the stock market and thought I was foolish to do so. Whenever there was a big market crash like the one in 1987, he would always ask me how much money I lost. My answer was always the same - not a penny - I still own all the stock I had before and none of the companies went bankrupt.

So that's basically where my head is at when it comes to the word "loss".

And in addition to the IRS rules, there is the very definition of the word "investment" - In general, to invest is to allocate money in the expectation of some benefit in the future . Given that, it seems to me that what is meant by "loss" in this one-day context, is really that my investments don't look so good on paper today as they did yesterday. If you want to call this a "loss", that is only in your mind - unless you decide to lock it in, of course.

Or your ETF manager locks in a loss for you?

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 6#p4037666

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:12 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Wed Aug 01, 2018 3:08 pm

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:34 pm It’s always GLD and TLT taking the beating.
No one ever mentioned the pitfalls of GLD and TLT cannobalizing each other...

Budd, it's always mentioned, in the form of "The assets are not designed to all move in the same direction."

Haha, see the irony in that statement with everything down today. Just venting...just sad that we sit for 8 years waiting for either GLD or TLT to rally enough to rebalance. Now that stocks are feeling some pain, they still go down. Hmmm..

Maybe we should amend it to, unless the direction is down.

MangoMan wrote: ↑Fri Aug 03, 2018 4:27 pm Why isn't anyone whining that all 3 assets are in the same direction (UP) today?

Human nature is weird, isn't it?

Who tunes into the news expecting to hear something positive?

All time high on SCHX, presumably S&P500 also.

Just reached 35.03% in PP equities with 55/45 SP500 and SCV. No other assets are out of tolerance but future contributions will go to Gold. Just haven’t decided whether to exchange from SCV or Cash.

ochotona wrote: ↑Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:50 am All time high on SCHX, presumably S&P500 also.

The S&P 500 PR (price only) is just below its January 26th 2018 high.

The S&P 500 TR did indeed hit a new all-time high (the January high was 5606 and today's close was just shy of 5635) so it makes sense that the ETF would hit an all-time high since it includes reinvested dividends as well.

Can someone theorize why SCV is outperforming even with a weaker USD? Isn’t the narrative a stronger USD is more competitive for the Domestic small company?

I'm not sure this observation really holds anymore.

- Big companies are pretty good at being global which lessens the currency impact

- It's not hard to be a small company and sell globally anymore

If I were to guess, it's a simple rotation into something that has been lagging for quite a while, meanwhile larger stocks are super pricey.

Business sentiment is good cuz Trump (deregulation). But who knows, speculative money flows around asset classes.

But is SCV cheap? SmallCap 600 Value ETF, PE = -25
https://www.etf.com/RZV

As a broad generalized statement, nothing in the US market is cheap.

Politico -

Wall Street pros often talk about a potential relief rally if Trump departs the White House early.

The underlying economy would remain strong, and a hypothetical President Mike Pence would likely continue Trump’s policy of low taxes and fewer regulations without all the wild tweeting and investigations and persistent trade wars.

“I’m not sure the market would be all that upset by Trump being forced to leave,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. “Many Republicans might welcome it, and if Pence moves in, the basic low regulation, low tax nature of the presidency would be the same, only without the constant self-induced volatility, and maybe ‘trade wars' would diminish.”

CNBC had some trader on two days ago who was projecting an upside of 3400-3500 on the SP500, and that would be the top of the rally from March 2009. 20% more... if true, another few years?

ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:46 pm a hypothetical President Mike Pence would likely continue Trump’s policy of low taxes and fewer regulations without all the wild tweeting and investigations and persistent trade wars.

Sounds good! I would welcome a hypothetical Mike Pence into the White House. The real one, I'm still a little leery of, heh heh.

ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:47 am CNBC had some trader on two days ago who was projecting an upside of 3400-3500 on the SP500, and that would be the top of the rally from March 2009. 20% more... if true, another few years?

OMG Credit Suisse just came out with a 3350 call for SP500 by end of 2019! Sounds like fun, but when this binch rolls over it will not be fun. Hussman is gonna have a stroke. Gartman, too.

Bring on the exuberance.

CNBC - Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio may be warning about the economy, but Wall Street bull Jeff Saut isn't changing his thesis.

March 2019 will mark the 10th year of this bull market, and "We ought to have another seven to eight years left," he said.

ochotona wrote: ↑Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:02 am CNBC - Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio may be warning about the economy, but Wall Street bull Jeff Saut isn't changing his thesis.

March 2019 will mark the 10th year of this bull market, and "We ought to have another seven to eight years left," he said.

We ought to have peace and prosperity in perpetuity.

Market crash or another 7 years of prosperity? It’s all too stressful to think about. I need to calm down with some chamomile tea and Serena Williams news items.

Charles Nenner has stopped screaming about Dow 5,000. Listening to "Market Wrap" by Moe Ansari podcast. He does see dis-inflation / deflation coming back. Bond rally.

Oh wait... now he says "a huge bear market continuing into 2021". Moe is feigning genuine curiosity as he asks Nenner. He invites Nenner on for some extra color.

Oh, and gold $2500, but it could touch $1050 first.

He likes gold and bonds.

ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:33 pm Charles Nenner has stopped screaming about Dow 5,000. Listening to "Market Wrap" by Moe Ansari podcast. He does see dis-inflation / deflation coming back. Bond rally.

Oh wait... now he says "a huge bear market continuing into 2021". Moe is feigning genuine curiosity as he asks Nenner. He invites Nenner on for some extra color.

Oh, and gold $2500, but it could touch $1050 first.

He likes gold and bonds.

Nenner’s notes should go back into the drawer...hahah; love Moe on the other hand...”Hopium”

Professor Shiller predicting 2.6% annual forward return on US stocks for next decade.

ochotona wrote: ↑Fri Sep 14, 2018 3:16 pm Professor Shiller predicting 2.6% annual forward return on US stocks for next decade.

Perfect indication to buy more stocks!!!!

Ochotona you seriously need to read Harry Browne's book, How the Best-Laid Investment Plans Usually Go Wrong. He does a very thorough debunking of virtually all prediction strategies. By the time you're done with it, you'll just laugh at stuff like this.