Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Nov 17, 2020 8:13 am

doodle wrote:
Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:02 pm
This market is getting insane. Cramer is attributing it to younger inexperienced investors who have only seen stock gains for the last decade. To them the party can go on forever. I'm starting to slowly divest. We hitting some pretty lofty numbers here. Id be surprised if we see 4k on the SP before we see 3k or less. Anyone else getting that feeling?
Plenty of pundits and prognosticators on both sides. I heard Cramer say that and was concerned, but he could be right about young naive investors and we could still see sustained gains for a variety of reasons. I’m at about 55% in stocks (vp + pp). I’m not really adding shares, but I don’t want to go lower than 50%. If it crashes, it crashes. I’ll maintain my allocation.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:00 am

We all have to keep in mind that fundamentals, price, value, etc really only matter about once or twice a generation. Since we went through two major episodes where those things mattered in just the 00's alone, what makes today the time when these things need to suddenly matter again? If you look back at history, odds are we got another 5-10 years to go at least before the next secular bear market. Now, there will be some short lived cyclical bear phases in between (like this year for example). The odds are MUCH greater that the bull has much further left to run vs the bull being winded and ready to keel over. Obsessing over fundamentals/price/value is a good way to be on the wrong side of the trade 90% of the time. But hey, I guess a broken clock is still right twice a day, right?
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Cortopassi
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Nov 17, 2020 1:51 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:00 am
Obsessing over fundamentals/price/value is a good way to be on the wrong side of the trade 90% of the time.
Can I have the first 20 years of my investing career as a do over because of this stupid notion I had!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by doodle » Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:34 am

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/cramer ... een.html

I don't know when the bear is going to wake up, but when it does it's going to be brutal.

It makes me nervous when 'braaahs' I used to work dead end jobs with are texting me with stock market stories.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:28 pm

Sure, it’s a meaningless metric but hooray Dow 30,000 🎉
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kbg » Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:29 pm

I think the most important thing I learned from HB was the difficulty of predicting...this lesson is so well ingrained now that all I really look for is some indication that what I'm holding is not performing according to historical data. If the data says whatever I'm holding should be getting trashed for the given conditions we are in...don't really care anymore. I actually get more "weirded out" when something is performing well that shouldn't be...my radar warning receiver is on high when this happens.

For me the "inability to predict thing" sinking in and its ramifications has changed everything including my bottom line in a big way.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:40 pm

Kbg wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:29 pm
I think the most important thing I learned from HB was the difficulty of predicting...this lesson is so well ingrained now that all I really look for is some indication that what I'm holding is not performing according to historical data. If the data says whatever I'm holding should be getting trashed for the given conditions we are in...don't really care anymore. I actually get more "weirded out" when something is performing well that shouldn't be...my radar warning receiver is on high when this happens.

For me the "inability to predict thing" sinking in and its ramifications has changed everything including my bottom line in a big way.
I well learned that lesson from reading Bernstein's book in the early 2000's, which led me to index funds and choosing an asset allocation and sticking with it NO TIMING!

Therefore when I learned of Harry Browne and Permanent Portfolio last year, it was a reinforcement with being more specific on the asset allocation.

Vinny
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Nov 25, 2020 10:56 am

Kbg wrote:
Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:29 pm
I think the most important thing I learned from HB was the difficulty of predicting...this lesson is so well ingrained now that all I really look for is some indication that what I'm holding is not performing according to historical data. If the data says whatever I'm holding should be getting trashed for the given conditions we are in...don't really care anymore. I actually get more "weirded out" when something is performing well that shouldn't be...my radar warning receiver is on high when this happens.

For me the "inability to predict thing" sinking in and its ramifications has changed everything including my bottom line in a big way.
Yeah, I love intermarket analysis. It's not fool-proof by any means, but there's a lot of info that can be gleaned from comparing what different asset classes, factors, locales, etc are doing relative to each other.
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