Gyroscopic Investing

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Feb 24, 2022 8:25 am I took a lot of vp profits in individal stocks right after New Year’s, but I have sold zero index fund shares.
Bought some dividend payers - of course AT&T slashed their dividend by 50% after I bought in.

Is this part of your PP or is it VP money?

The dividend stuff is all VP.
I left the index funds alone because that's PP. Those will only get sold by standard rebalancing.

And the major indices ended the day POSITIVE. How about that.

Anybody watching or reading any current stock bulls? I am curious to see their perspectives.


I keep hoping for a big bounce back but it keeps going lower.

No screams after the move on Friday?!

Must be shell shocked.

murphy_p_t wrote: ↑Sat Apr 30, 2022 9:28 pm No screams after the move on Friday?!

Must be shell shocked.

I’ve been expecting it. We have to have a prolonged bear market at some point.

Agreed. Another reason why the pp is no longer for me.

I would imagine there are quite a few people who have been able to participate in the recent run-up in stocks because of the PP. Without that framework, they might have pulled out of stocks years ago.

Xan wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 3:52 pm I would imagine there are quite a few people who have been able to participate in the recent run-up in stocks because of the PP. Without that framework, they might have pulled out of stocks years ago.

Your comments are going to fall mostly on deaf ears. It seems this forum is now mostly frequented by people who dislike the PP

murphy_p_t wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 3:46 pm Agreed. Another reason why the pp is no longer for me.

I don’t follow. A bear market in stocks makes you want to leave the pp? To pile into stocks while they’re low?
or something else - more gold?

Xan wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 3:52 pm I would imagine there are quite a few people who have been able to participate in the recent run-up in stocks because of the PP. Without that framework, they might have pulled out of stocks years ago.

True. I'm grateful for that...

I determined some months ago that is time for me to move on, however.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 4:50 pm

murphy_p_t wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 3:46 pm Agreed. Another reason why the pp is no longer for me.

I don’t follow. A bear market in stocks makes you want to leave the pp? To pile into stocks while they’re low?
or something else - more gold?

I think there's a strong likelihood there's something much bigger than your normal bear market in the coming year or two... Something on the order of 1929 onwards...

I hope I can time it as well as you suggest!


(Yeah, I'm overweight mining stocks)

murphy_p_t wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 5:00 pm

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 4:50 pm

murphy_p_t wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 3:46 pm Agreed. Another reason why the pp is no longer for me.

I don’t follow. A bear market in stocks makes you want to leave the pp? To pile into stocks while they’re low?
or something else - more gold?

I think there's a strong likelihood there's something much bigger than your normal bear market in the coming year or two... Something on the order of 1929 onwards...

I hope I can time it as well as you suggest!


(Yeah, I'm overweight mining stocks)

I'm not going to disagree with you, because I think this is definitely a possibility (as well as the massive deflation that came with that crash, as strange as that sounds given the current high levels of inflation). But I would caution that I've (personally) been expecting another Great Depression for about 10 years, and yet here we are....

Thank you.

In my view, it just means we're 10 years closer.

In case I'm wrong, I still have some domestic ETFs for different market segments, following guidance from a financial newsletter. (Xle, xlv, xlv, short sp500 fund, etc)

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:01 am let 2022 be the year of GOLD

If 2022 is not the year of GOLD, it would be definitely the year of pain.

Take the PP and shove it [ edited ]

Folks, let's let this be a Budd-free summer here, and Budd, you can have a forum-free summer. I think it'll be nicer for everyone!

it’s ok, everyone knows what they’re dealing with now.

Too funny...why does someone care who's not in the portfolio?

I think when Budd is mad at the PP, an inanimate object, he needs to release the pressure somewhere so takes it out on us. Personally, I’m okay with it.

I like to think of him as one of the FBI agents in the original Twin Peaks. The one played by Miguel Ferrer, not Kyle Maclachlan.
Budd’s path is a difficult one.

I was ridiculed for years because I didn’t ascribe to the philosophy that one or more assets would buoy the portfolio in times of economic distress. We are now witnessing this distress first-hand and the PP has proven it does not have the ability to overcome an inflationary environment with rising interest rates. Moreover, the one asset that differentiates the portfolio from other conservative allocations and was selected for this very economic climate (Gold) is wavering in the wind with inflation at 40 year highs. If this does not give you pause then I don’t know what to tell you. The portfolio just isn’t what others have made it out to be. Period.

YTD Returns:
SPY -21.84
IAU +.58
TLT -23.86

But had you had 60/40 or all stocks your balance over the years would have been way higher too.

So being down more maybe only part of the story

I took a look on Portfolio Visualizer comparing the PP, GB, and a 60/40 (with World-TSM and ITT as bond). Starting 2010 (after the last crash) with $100k, and monthly 1k contributions. All of them were creamed by the Classic Jack Bogle Vanguard 60/40 portfolio (the green benchmark line).

America kicked serious ass over the past decade.