Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pmward
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:48 am

doodle wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 12:05 am
From my perspective we are seeing Wall Street manipulating increased volatility to drive profits. Returns must be made and for insiders and professionals that is aided by increased volatility. The fact that market touched on January highs when the future prosperity of the world is hanging by a tenuous thread and suffering from historically high unemployment says to me that this is past the realm of irrational...there is gamesmanship going on.
Unemployment has actually been flat for over a month now. The increase in weekly initial claims has been made up for by the decrease in recurring claims (i.e. the people going back to work are making up for new job losses). In other words, for the moment, unemployment has peaked. If you look back at recessions in history, the stock market bottoms and starts going up usually a few weeks before the unemployment peak. It did the same here. This is nothing different than any other recession. The only difference is the speed it happened in. But from a historical standpoint, it's not irrational, it is following the same playbook it always has. In June 09 you probably would have said the same thing you are saying now and look how wrong you would have been. The market is forward looking, not backward or even present looking. If you are looking backwards, or even in the present, you are always going to be disconnected from the market. The market historically performs BEST when things are really bad, but looking slightly less bad going forward. If you wait for past looking economic data (that lags by 3-6 months) to catch up in order to feel safe you will always miss the boat. The stock market is the tail that wags the dog. When CEO's start seeing their stock price going back up, their confidence increases and they start to slow layoffs and even start hiring again.
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Vil
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Vil » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:05 am

pmward wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 8:48 am
The stock market is the tail that wags the dog.
Wondering how the appearances of new GI forum members and more forum hits relates to the stock market ..
Can recall Xan mentioned the hits increased during the worst market days in Feb/Mar. But guess if being any sort of indicator, sadly GI forum would be quite laggine one (for Boglers) ;D

PS. I am not a new GI forum member, I am here since 1st Jan 2020 hahahaha
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:08 pm

Stocks up on Russell changes, though the changes will happen June 29th.
forcemeat, ie stuffing, is etymologically related to ‘farce’. When you say something is a farce, a joke, you’re saying something is a bunch of stuffing.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:48 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:08 pm
Stocks up on Russell changes, though the changes will happen June 29th.
What changes? You mean the yearly reconstitution?
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:12 pm

pmward wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:48 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:08 pm
Stocks up on Russell changes, though the changes will happen June 29th.
What changes? You mean the yearly reconstitution?
Yes, although I didn’t know that’s what it was called until you mentioned it.
forcemeat, ie stuffing, is etymologically related to ‘farce’. When you say something is a farce, a joke, you’re saying something is a bunch of stuffing.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:47 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 5:12 pm
pmward wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 3:48 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:08 pm
Stocks up on Russell changes, though the changes will happen June 29th.
What changes? You mean the yearly reconstitution?
Yes, although I didn’t know that’s what it was called until you mentioned it.
Ah, yeah they do that every year. Not a big deal. It's a poor time to hold any Russell based funds though, because people front run the reconstitution and that forces the index fund providers to have to basically pay to rebalance. I read somewhere that this costed the average Russell fund something like 1% every year vs the index. Russell indexes were made to be indexes not funds, haha.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:14 am

NASDAQ is at an all-time high.
forcemeat, ie stuffing, is etymologically related to ‘farce’. When you say something is a farce, a joke, you’re saying something is a bunch of stuffing.
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mathjak107
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:57 pm

So it looks like this is now the price for buying in to the 2021 and beyond economy ....the 2020 show is cancelled ....all tickets today are priced for next years shows
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by vnatale » Mon Jul 06, 2020 2:34 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 1:57 pm
So it looks like this is now the price for buying in to the 2021 and beyond economy ....the 2020 show is cancelled ....all tickets today are priced for next years shows
Just to be clear you are NOT talking about "music" shows but making some form of analogy and referring to the pricing going on in the financial markets?

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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Jul 06, 2020 3:04 pm

Yep ...the stock market has pretty much closed the books on 2020 ....the prices we are at now get us in for the 2021 and beyond show
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:02 pm

Rebalanced out of an International Growth fund that has risen 25%+ YTD (top holdings include Alibaba, Tesla and Amazon - 11.4% in North America). Felt like the wrong move so hopefully its the right one ;D
Last edited by buddtholomew on Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:18 pm

There was basically no point to getting out of the market before the crash. (I didn’t).
Amazing recovery. I’ve been trimming my vp, though.
forcemeat, ie stuffing, is etymologically related to ‘farce’. When you say something is a farce, a joke, you’re saying something is a bunch of stuffing.
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