Gyroscopic Investing

buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 8:01 pm Funny, I was glued to SPY during that time as well and noticed a couple attempts to breach and hold below that 279 number. Low was 278.96, Close 281.60.

Been watching GDX for a good entry again after 35.20 sale.

Yep, important support levels like $279.13 rarely give way easily. The best chance the bears have to get and hold below there is to try to gap below it tomorrow morning. We will have to wait and see what happens. If they starts closing some candles below $279.13 then the bears are actually scoring some points and doing some real technical damage, something they have been completely unable to do since March 23.

pmward wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 9:26 am Double top's do not exist until they set a lower low.

Yup, I am bit too quick and a bit of looking ahead (which obviously is my mind drawing dragons in the air), indeed crossing of the confirmation line is pending... Have struggled with some reversion trades in the past due to that (entering too early), promise I will not do that in the future

We had a nice -2.xx% gap in EU, has gained a bit since then but still it smells a negative day. Let's see, though its nice to see again the pros going against the prevailing trend shortly after market opening and betting against ..

pmward wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 8:48 pm Yep, important support levels like $279.13 rarely give way easily.

Its 278.34 now, listening to L'Inverno / Le quattro stagioni (Vivaldi) - that makes the moment even more dramatic ahahah

Vil wrote: ↑Thu May 14, 2020 8:44 am

pmward wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 8:48 pm Yep, important support levels like $279.13 rarely give way easily.

Its 278.34 now, listening to L'Inverno / Le quattro stagioni (Vivaldi) - that makes the moment even more dramatic ahahah

Yep the bears not surprisingly did the gap thing I mentioned last night. They even got an hourly close below $279.13 which really does weaken that level a bit. But so far the bulls have pulled us back above now, and are going back for that next important $181 level. Watch how it handles that $181. Usually the market does one of two things in this scenario. It either goes up close to $181 and then just hangs around doing nothing, this is a bull flag which basically is building energy to break back above $181 which would put the ball back in the bulls court and set the stage for a late afternoon rescue rally. Or it goes up to $181 and quickly turns back around and goes back down, which keeps the ball in the bears hand and sets up yet another test of that now weakened $279.13 level into the close. The hourly chart is very important right here.

Maybe it won't last but my losses are rapidly evaporating.

I have no regrets about not panic-selling.

The ability of the stock market to shake off bad news is truly incredible. Pandemic, 20 percent unemployment, Chinese trade wars, race riots...nothing can seem to keep it down.

doodle wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 11:41 pm The ability of the stock market to shake off bad news is truly incredible. Pandemic, 20 percent unemployment, Chinese trade wars, race riots...nothing can seem to keep it down.

Yes, isn't it amazing what unlimited money printing can do for the stock market?

doodle wrote: ↑Sun May 31, 2020 11:41 pm The ability of the stock market to shake off bad news is truly incredible. Pandemic, 20 percent unemployment, Chinese trade wars, race riots...nothing can seem to keep it down.

Bad news = liquidity. Liquidity = stock market going up. Stock market going up = good news. Therefore, bad news = good news.

Liquidity could flow into any asset. This doesn't make any sense to me. Practically back at pre corona virus levels but world looks completely different.

doodle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 8:23 am Liquidity could flow into any asset. This doesn't make any sense to me. Practically back at pre corona virus levels but world looks completely different.

You need to accept the fact that the economy and fundamentals do not move the stock market. I've been saying this on this board for 2 years now (and been proven right time and again) and still nobody gets it. If the economy and fundamentals moved markets, the market would be way down right now. The day you can accept this fact is the day you finally will be free to start to understand what really does move markets, and that will be the day that you will start being on the right side of the trades instead of always on the wrong side.

If it's emotion that moves markets then I guess the concept of trading is almost entirely a crapshoot...unless there is some other mysterious predictable force at work.

I guess the better question is...where is all the optimism coming from? I see no bright light on the horizon.

doodle wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:06 pm If it's emotion that moves markets then I guess the concept of trading is almost entirely a crapshoot...unless there is some other mysterious predictable force at work

Emotions show up on a chart. It's not a crapshoot. If people are greedy today, odds are they are going to be greedy tomorrow. If people are fearful today, odds are they will be fearful tomorrow. Nobody can every make a 100% bet, but you can find bets that are higher probability than others, and if you manage your risk properly and don't do anything dumb you can profit greatly on the whole.

Or you can just hold something like a PP and stop speculating on what could/should happen, and just let the market do whatever it's going to do.

Gold is well below 1700. 30-year Treasury bond prices are falling.
Stocks up big time.

All is well. Nothing happened.

the same as flight to safety drives up gold and treasuries , risk on again crushes them .

Stocks down 6%, Thu Jun 11 3:00PM EST
added:
down 7% 3:30 EST

It is indeed ugly out there. S&P testing 3000 currently, which is an extremely important level to hold for many reasons. Definitely feels more like March today than like May.

Gotta love the stock market. Does well for weeks, then it suddenly shits its pants for no apparent reason.

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:52 pm Gotta love the stock market. Does well for weeks, then it suddenly shits its pants for no apparent reason.

Seems to be partly fears of the 2nd wave of corona and partly Powell's gloomy outlook.
What I'm not sure of was the reason the market rose so fast in the first place. :-) Wishful thinking, I guess.

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:54 pm

Tortoise wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:52 pm Gotta love the stock market. Does well for weeks, then it suddenly shits its pants for no apparent reason.

Seems to be partly fears of the 2nd wave of corona and partly Powell's gloomy outlook.
What I'm not sure of was the reason the market rose so fast in the first place. :-) Wishful thinking, I guess.

The market performs the BEST when things are REALLY bad, but speculation is that things will be less bad going forward. At the same time, there have been a lot of shorts that have been burned over and over again, who have been just itching to try to drop the market. It wasn't the news that caused the spike or the selloff, the news was simply the excuse for people to finally do what they have already been wanting to do. It was a lot of pent up aggression. 48% single day spike in the VIX goes to show how extreme that pent up emotion was.

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and opine that the bear market rally may finally be loosing steam as Wall Street has been getting a reality check on how bad things are, and are likely to remain for some time.

Ad Orientem wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:25 pm I'm gonna go out on a limb here and opine that the bear market rally may finally be l(o)sing steam as Wall Street has been getting a reality check on how bad things are, and are likely to remain for some time.

Just yesterday, so many voices were saying 'hey, maybe it's going to be a V-shaped recovery after all."

I would like to ascribe the plunge to rational thought, even belated, suddenly arrived rational thought, but...why start (being rational) now?

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:40 pm but...why start (being rational) now?

Exactly this!! The stock market is never rational. We could turn around and be up 5% tomorrow. Then again we could also be down another 5% tomorrow. Either way the media will try to spin it after the fact to force it into some picture they want to paint, just like last week they were painting the bullish picture and this week they are painting the bearish picture.

From my perspective we are seeing Wall Street manipulating increased volatility to drive profits. Returns must be made and for insiders and professionals that is aided by increased volatility. The fact that market touched on January highs when the future prosperity of the world is hanging by a tenuous thread and suffering from historically high unemployment says to me that this is past the realm of irrational...there is gamesmanship going on.

doodle wrote: ↑Sun Jun 14, 2020 12:05 am From my perspective we are seeing Wall Street manipulating increased volatility to drive profits. Returns must be made and for insiders and professionals that is aided by increased volatility. The fact that market touched on January highs when the future prosperity of the world is hanging by a tenuous thread and suffering from historically high unemployment says to me that this is past the realm of irrational...there is gamesmanship going on.

Unemployment has actually been flat for over a month now. The increase in weekly initial claims has been made up for by the decrease in recurring claims (i.e. the people going back to work are making up for new job losses). In other words, for the moment, unemployment has peaked. If you look back at recessions in history, the stock market bottoms and starts going up usually a few weeks before the unemployment peak. It did the same here. This is nothing different than any other recession. The only difference is the speed it happened in. But from a historical standpoint, it's not irrational, it is following the same playbook it always has. In June 09 you probably would have said the same thing you are saying now and look how wrong you would have been. The market is forward looking, not backward or even present looking. If you are looking backwards, or even in the present, you are always going to be disconnected from the market. The market historically performs BEST when things are really bad, but looking slightly less bad going forward. If you wait for past looking economic data (that lags by 3-6 months) to catch up in order to feel safe you will always miss the boat. The stock market is the tail that wags the dog. When CEO's start seeing their stock price going back up, their confidence increases and they start to slow layoffs and even start hiring again.