Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri May 01, 2020 7:51 am

I didn't stay in!
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mathjak107
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri May 01, 2020 8:04 am

ochotona wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 7:51 am
I didn't stay in!
you sold all equities ? we are effectively buying in every day in any asset we hold and continue to keep in play . we are up or down each day the same dollars regardless of new money or old money .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Fri May 01, 2020 8:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri May 01, 2020 8:06 am

I’m not throwing asset allocation and the pp out the window just because a couple of people on the internet are good at market timing.
Luckin Coffee, another reason why I mostly stick to the domestic (U.S.) market
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mathjak107
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri May 01, 2020 8:07 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 8:06 am
I’m not throwing asset allocation and the pp out the window just because a couple of people on the internet are good at market timing.
i agree ... but that is not what my posts are referring to ....... i am just saying if we leave our money invested we are no different then someone first buying in as far as loss or gain potential going forward
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pp4me » Fri May 01, 2020 8:43 am

Tortoise wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:27 pm
Stock market investors are currently optimistic for the same reason that most people still think that we can all stay locked down for 12-18 months until a vaccine arrives, without utterly crippling the economy:

Delusion, plain and simple.
That pretty much sums up what I'm seeing and although it's always a good idea to hope for the best it's prudent to prepare for the worse which is exactly what those of us who follow the PP strategy have been doing with our money. Remarkably, my own portfolio just went slightly into positive territory YTD with the stock market gains. If anyone asked me today how they could duplicate the success I would have to honestly tell them you probably can't and you should refer to the story of the ant and the grasshopper.

I think it's very likely that the depression is already well underway and that chronic unemployment will be with us for a long time. The idea that businesses can re-open at reduced capacity and stay afloat is just another one of the delusions. A restaurant owner in New York has already said that nothing less than opening at 100% is going to save his business. At 25% capacity, as some are proposing, they won't even be able to re-hire and pay many of their previous employees, let alone make any profit at all.

Thinking about depression politics is even more depressing. Although I'm heartened to see some Americans finally protesting the government overreach and the erosion of civil liberties, the truth is that the polls still show that 75% of the people support the lockdowns. So if the pattern of the great depression is repeated I would expect a leftward lurch. So prepare for president Biden and Dems in charge of both houses of congress.

And I won't even go into the history of how the great depression actually ended.

If I sound overly pessimistic about things all I can say is that this has been a good psychological coping mechanism through the years because Shit happens.

Maybe we should start calling the Permanent Portfolio the Pessimist's portfolio.
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mathjak107
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri May 01, 2020 9:25 am

my guess is that since we all see doom and gloom and maybe even a depression like scenario , markets never play out the way we think ...there is always stuff not even on the radar that alters what we all think is a given, that is both up or down .
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Fri May 01, 2020 9:48 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 9:25 am
my guess is that since we all see doom and gloom and maybe even a depression like scenario , markets never play out the way we think ...there is always stuff not even on the radar that alters what we all think is a given, that is both up or down .
This exactly. I know I've said it here a few times already, but it bears repeating... the markets cannot do the most obvious thing... or else it becomes an easy money printing machine for all. By design, it needs to confuse and confound in the short term to keep the bears and the bulls honest. Logic has NOTHING to do with markets on any timeframe less than a year. Less than a year it's all sentiment and emotion, fear and greed, etc that drive the prices. There is nothing logical about that. Know your timeframe. If you are a buy and hold investor, then buy and hold, follow the rules of your portfolio, and leave the sentiment speculation to the short term traders. If you're a short term trader, trade the current sentiment and ignore the logic or what you *believe* *should* happen. If you're a trend follower, follow the trend that is in front of you. Trade the chart you have, not the one you want. Know your timeframe. If you are a PP investor, then stop worrying, rebalance when the opportunities come, and let the market do whatever it's going to do. I have 0 worries about the 40% of my portfolio that is in a PP.
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mathjak107
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri May 01, 2020 10:12 am

assets would not trade if we all saw the same thing and it played out as we saw it ...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tyler » Fri May 01, 2020 12:07 pm

pp4me wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 8:43 am
Maybe we should start calling the Permanent Portfolio the Pessimist's portfolio.
Definitely not! It's true that the PP attracts a certain subset of people with doubts about the stock market, but the portfolio itself isn't inherently optimistic or pessimistic. The whole point is that it maintains a neutral outlook.
Mechanical engineer, history buff, treasure manager... totally not Ben Gates
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri May 01, 2020 12:16 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 8:07 am
dualstow wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 8:06 am
I’m not throwing asset allocation and the pp out the window just because a couple of people on the internet are good at market timing.
i agree ... but that is not what my posts are referring to ....... i am just saying if we leave our money invested we are no different then someone first buying in as far as loss or gain potential going forward
I know that, but as long as these posts are in the pp §, I tend to add that response in case there are new eyes who don't know that.
Luckin Coffee, another reason why I mostly stick to the domestic (U.S.) market
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mathjak107
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri May 01, 2020 2:02 pm

Tyler wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 12:07 pm
pp4me wrote:
Fri May 01, 2020 8:43 am
Maybe we should start calling the Permanent Portfolio the Pessimist's portfolio.
Definitely not! It's true that the PP attracts a certain subset of people with doubts about the stock market, but the portfolio itself isn't inherently optimistic or pessimistic. The whole point is that it maintains a neutral outlook.
However it allocates the assets equally into scenarios that tend to not have equal chances of playing out ...so yeah I would say the butterfly is likely better matched as to the likelihood of how assets tend to play out long term ,while the pp has more weight in pessimism for stocks.... prosperity tends to beat the other scenarios as far as amount of time it plays out since markets are up 2/3 the time and only down 1/3
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Fri May 01, 2020 3:12 pm

The GB assumes future stock market gains will resemble the past (hence overweighting stocks) and can thus be described as an “optimistic” portfolio. Or at least a predictive portfolio.

The PP, by contrast, makes no such assumption or prediction. Thus its equal weighting and its accurate description as a “neutral” portfolio.
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