Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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technovelist
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by technovelist » Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:55 pm

pugchief wrote: Interestingly, the gold miners got hammered today even though gold was up.
Gold stocks are stocks. Gold is gold. They aren't the same.
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sophie
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Tue Oct 07, 2014 4:06 pm

Saw this and had to check...wow.  What happened today?

CNN seems to like calendar-based explanations of stock market performance dips.  Last month it was "September is bad for stocks".  Before that it was "sell in May", then "summer is bad for stocks".  Now it's "October is scary for stocks."  I guess that's what you write when you want to sound smart but don't have anything worthwhile to say.

Note to all those who were frantic to avoid buying bonds in a recent thread:  SEE????  TLT went up more today than the stock market went down.  Gold went down a bit, so PP is probably near flat for the day.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Reub » Tue Oct 07, 2014 4:13 pm

Actually GLD and IAU were up a little, making the day positive despite massive stock market losses. :)

Now GTU was another story! :(
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by iwealth » Tue Oct 07, 2014 4:20 pm

sophie wrote: CNN seems to like calendar-based explanations of stock market performance dips.  Last month it was "September is bad for stocks".  Before that it was "sell in May", then "summer is bad for stocks".  Now it's "October is scary for stocks."  I guess that's what you write when you want to sound smart but don't have anything worthwhile to say.
"Sell in May and go away" is a widely used investing strategy. You exit the market in May and come back in November. It actually backtests quite well.
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technovelist
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by technovelist » Tue Oct 07, 2014 4:25 pm

Reub wrote: Actually GLD and IAU were up a little, making the day positive despite massive stock market losses. :)

Now GTU was another story! :(
Good for me if that keeps up, as I'm planning to trade physical gold in my retirement account for GTU outside.  ;D
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Reub » Tue Oct 07, 2014 6:04 pm

What I meant was that GTU was down today while GLD and IAU were up, once again under performing.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dragoncar » Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:15 am

Reub wrote: What I meant was that GTU was down today while GLD and IAU were up, once again under performing.
Is there a financial reason GTU is so low?  I mean like increased risk in the underlying company itself?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by stuper1 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:17 pm

For every day that GTU underperforms, there seems to be another day that it overperforms compared to GLD.  Over the long-term, the performance seems to be quite similar.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:45 pm

GTU has a lag compared to the gold index price.  It runs at a discount when few people are buying (relative to sellers), and at a premium when there is high demand for gold.  So it does not necessarily track gold perfectly on a day to day basis.

A lot of people here (including me) are buying it even in retirement accounts because of the current discount of 7%.  If gold rises and that discount goes to zero (or even a premium), you'll get an extra 7% bump added to your winnings.
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technovelist
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by technovelist » Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:23 pm

sophie wrote: GTU has a lag compared to the gold index price.  It runs at a discount when few people are buying (relative to sellers), and at a premium when there is high demand for gold.  So it does not necessarily track gold perfectly on a day to day basis.

A lot of people here (including me) are buying it even in retirement accounts because of the current discount of 7%.  If gold rises and that discount goes to zero (or even a premium), you'll get an extra 7% bump added to your winnings.
Right, and furthermore the discount can't grow indefinitely because there is some mechanism for cashing out if it does. They actually called me to discuss that but I was on a very important call and couldn't pick up. I need to call them back about how that works...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by stuper1 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:20 pm

Here's a comparison of GTU and GLD.  It seems to me that GTU is tracking GLD pretty well.

[img width=500]http://i60.tinypic.com/264n8yo.jpg[/img]
Last edited by stuper1 on Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Pointedstick » Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:40 pm

Stuper1, why are you using Internet Exploder!?! ;)
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