Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:08 pm

From Fidelity - "Buyers and sellers of LEAPS should consider the implications of Greeks.* Vega (an option price’s sensitivity for a given change in implied volatility) can be much higher for LEAPS. If you are thinking about buying LEAPS, you may want to do so when implied volatility is relatively low. Also, rho (an options’ sensitivity to a change in interest rates) can be important."

So buy a LEAP when VIX has quieted down substantially, when we're stable at whatever low or negative rate we end up at, and people are basically just lying on the floor bleeding out and whimpering?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:15 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:08 pm
From Fidelity - "Buyers and sellers of LEAPS should consider the implications of Greeks.* Vega (an option price’s sensitivity for a given change in implied volatility) can be much higher for LEAPS. If you are thinking about buying LEAPS, you may want to do so when implied volatility is relatively low. Also, rho (an options’ sensitivity to a change in interest rates) can be important."

So buy a LEAP when VIX has quieted down substantially, when we're stable at whatever low or negative rate we end up at, and people are basically just lying on the floor bleeding out and whimpering?
Usually markets bottom with lower volatility. Look back at 08. Volatility spiked in October 08, and plummeted by the time the real bottom was hit in March 09 at much lower levels. Volatility is only high when people are still panicking and bulls are still fighting the downtrend. When the bulls give up, volatility will subside, even though the market will still be trending lower. The peak of the VIX in Oct 08 was 96. What was it at the bottom the week of March 9th 09? Only 17. At the time of a real "once in a lifetime" bottom, nobody will want to buy LEAP options. That is precisely the time to load up on them.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:13 pm

And look at that, stocks fading now. Big reversal there.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:39 pm

pmward wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:15 pm
What was it at the bottom the week of March 9th 09? Only 17. At the time of a real "once in a lifetime" bottom, nobody will want to buy LEAP options. That is precisely the time to load up on them.
Sounds great. Oh, the market reverse because everyone figured out DJT was totally lying about 10 million barrel cuts from Saudi and Russia. Both Saudi and Russia issued statements denying speaking about such cuts. This is so not the first time DJT lied like a toddler and then got caught. So many times. Googleplex times. People shorting crude oil at the top of the spike made some coin today, thanks to the Liar-In-Chief.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:48 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:39 pm
pmward wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:15 pm
What was it at the bottom the week of March 9th 09? Only 17. At the time of a real "once in a lifetime" bottom, nobody will want to buy LEAP options. That is precisely the time to load up on them.
Sounds great. Oh, the market reverse because everyone figured out DJT was totally lying about 10 million barrel cuts from Saudi and Russia. Both Saudi and Russia issued statements denying speaking about such cuts. This is so not the first time DJT lied like a toddler and then got caught. So many times. Googleplex times. People shorting crude oil at the top of the spike made some coin today, thanks to the Liar-In-Chief.
Yes, he is always exaggerating and trying to jawbone the market. Of course, at this point, a production cut is a pretty moot point. The damage is already done. We already are drowning in supply and have 0 demand.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:17 pm

I apologize if it's already come up: You know how Gundlach has been predicting a stock drop? At least one stock newsletter guy is really miffed. Louis Navellier accused him of making that prediction to "help bonds" and called Gundlach a "weenie." Hmm. I look forward to their upcoming in-person debate.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:27 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:44 pm
Here's the actual tweet:
"Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia, & I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!"
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 7660925952

What is the lie exactly? Is he lying about his hope and expectation? How could you possibly know that?
The lie is not about "10 million barrels". The lie is about having spoken to Putin and MBS.

- the news portal for the Saudi royal family did confirm Trump and MBS spoke, but "10 million barrels" was not in the press release.

- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused on Thursday US President DT's claims about a phone conversation between Russian President P. and Saudi Crown Prince MBS. "No. There was no such conversation".

Also... 10 million barrels... per day? per month? per year? or one-time? He just said, and you quoted him, "10 million barrels". If one-time, that's about 3 hours of world consumption. Big deal!

Never forget, Trump came from real estate! If his mouth is moving... he's lying.

Why do people feel compelled to keep carrying DJT's water? Seems pointless to me.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:00 pm

Oilprice.com

No one has launched any talks about a potential new oil-production deal to replace the OPEC+ format, Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, said on Thursday, hours after U.S. President Donald Trump said that former friends-turned-foes Saudi Arabia and Russia are talking and “I think they’ll to come up with something.”

“No one has started talking about any specific or abstract deals yet,” the Kremlin spokesman Peskov told reporters on Thursday, as carried by Russian news agency TASS.

Also https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil-sp ... mm-barrels
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:49 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:27 pm
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused on Thursday US President DT's claims about a phone conversation between Russian President P. and Saudi Crown Prince MBS. "No. There was no such conversation".
Can't resist... release the transcript!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:16 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:49 pm
ochotona wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:27 pm
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused on Thursday US President DT's claims about a phone conversation between Russian President P. and Saudi Crown Prince MBS. "No. There was no such conversation".
Can't resist... release the transcript!
The Saudi transcript is here, www.spa.gov.sa/2054219
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:59 pm

Russia is the Marshawn Lynch of countries. Or maybe the Bob Huggins.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Dieter » Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:42 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:43 pm
ochotona wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:00 pm
Oilprice.com

No one has launched any talks about a potential new oil-production deal to replace the OPEC+ format, Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, said on Thursday, hours after U.S. President Donald Trump said that former friends-turned-foes Saudi Arabia and Russia are talking and “I think they’ll to come up with something.”

“No one has started talking about any specific or abstract deals yet,” the Kremlin spokesman Peskov told reporters on Thursday, as carried by Russian news agency TASS.

Also https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil-sp ... mm-barrels
Of course the Kremlin never puts out disinformation, so we should believe the Kremlin rather than Trump.
But wait, isn't Trump supposed to be Putin's puppet? Or was that last week?
I'm getting dizzy trying to follow the talking points!
It's easy -- can't trust Russia, Trump, or the Chinese.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:39 pm

The evidence that Trump is lying is that 10 million barrels per say would be 43% of Saudi and Russian daily production!

It's impossible on it's face! KSA and Russia would never volunteer for that. That's patently absurd.

Anyone who believes that's plausible has no operating brain cells. You've just proven it to the world.

That like saying Trump claiming he is going to leap from Earth to Moon, ain't going to happen.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:50 pm

The only way I am sure Trump is still alive is if he is lying about something.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:36 am

More Boglehead panic

At what point does a fund's performance history vs index matter?
TLH of 6-figure loss? {ouch !!!}
Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
How am I doing ? Do i need a financial advisor ?
Share what worked in your plan during the crisis
Anyone here depressed just looking at their portfolio?
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:54 am

ochotona wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:36 am
More Boglehead panic

At what point does a fund's performance history vs index matter?
TLH of 6-figure loss? {ouch !!!}
Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
How am I doing ? Do i need a financial advisor ?
Share what worked in your plan during the crisis
Anyone here depressed just looking at their portfolio?
It is funny how much they are panicking, especially since as of the moment the stock market still has the best case scenario priced in. We are currently at ~2500 priced for a quick V shaped recovery. The market is still strangely very optimistic on the whole, as evidenced by things like rallying on historically bad unemployment numbers, oil rallying 20%+ on a blatant and obvious lie from Trump, etc. The bulls are still impatiently looking for any sign of hope to do a Q4 2018 like V shaped recovery back to new highs by the fall. There is a desperation for good news on the bulls part. They still have way too much hope left for this to be a true bear market bottom. I'm still long term bullish, but I am bearish short term. I think we have more pain to come in the next couple months and that things are worse in the short term than is currently priced into the market.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:21 am

pmward wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:54 am
It is funny how much they are panicking, especially since as of the moment the stock market still has the best case scenario priced in. We are currently at ~2500 priced for a quick V shaped recovery. The market is still strangely very optimistic on the whole, as evidenced by things like rallying on historically bad unemployment numbers, oil rallying 20%+ on a blatant and obvious lie from Trump, etc. The bulls are still impatiently looking for any sign of hope to do a Q4 2018 like V shaped recovery back to new highs by the fall. There is a desperation for good news on the bulls part. They still have way too much hope left for this to be a true bear market bottom. I'm still long term bullish, but I am bearish short term. I think we have more pain to come in the next couple months and that things are worse in the short term than is currently priced into the market.
I know, the Knuckleheads forum is just such a strange place. They spend all this time analyzing stock market history, looking at charts, graphs, standard deviations, drawdowns. They get so snarky and pseudo-intellectual with each other. Yet for some reason these same people, who have done all this research, still invest as if bear markets don't happen and are somehow surprised when they do.

Like, uhhhh what?

It's as if someone told you that fighting Tyson Fury was going to get you KO'd, but you did it anyway and got KO'd. Hmmmmmm.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:35 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:33 am
pmward wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:54 am
ochotona wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:36 am
More Boglehead panic

At what point does a fund's performance history vs index matter?
TLH of 6-figure loss? {ouch !!!}
Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
How am I doing ? Do i need a financial advisor ?
Share what worked in your plan during the crisis
Anyone here depressed just looking at their portfolio?
It is funny how much they are panicking, especially since as of the moment the stock market still has the best case scenario priced in. We are currently at ~2500 priced for a quick V shaped recovery. The market is still strangely very optimistic on the whole, as evidenced by things like rallying on historically bad unemployment numbers, oil rallying 20%+ on a blatant and obvious lie from Trump, etc. The bulls are still impatiently looking for any sign of hope to do a Q4 2018 like V shaped recovery back to new highs by the fall. There is a desperation for good news on the bulls part. They still have way too much hope left for this to be a true bear market bottom. I'm still long term bullish, but I am bearish short term. I think we have more pain to come in the next couple months and that things are worse in the short term than is currently priced into the market.
Please provide proof of the "blatant and obvious lie".
If you have none, you should stop spreading Democrat propaganda.
Please provide proof he was telling the truth. It's very clear to me that you are the one on this forum constantly spreading political propaganda and too brainwashed to look at the reality of the situation from an unbiased, impartial, and nonpartisan viewpoint. I know I'm far from the only person that places absolutely 0 weight in anything you say in regards to Trump.
Last edited by pmward on Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by pmward » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:41 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:39 am
pmward wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:35 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:33 am
pmward wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:54 am
ochotona wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:36 am
More Boglehead panic

At what point does a fund's performance history vs index matter?
TLH of 6-figure loss? {ouch !!!}
Why Do So Many Recommend 70% - 100% Stocks?
How am I doing ? Do i need a financial advisor ?
Share what worked in your plan during the crisis
Anyone here depressed just looking at their portfolio?
It is funny how much they are panicking, especially since as of the moment the stock market still has the best case scenario priced in. We are currently at ~2500 priced for a quick V shaped recovery. The market is still strangely very optimistic on the whole, as evidenced by things like rallying on historically bad unemployment numbers, oil rallying 20%+ on a blatant and obvious lie from Trump, etc. The bulls are still impatiently looking for any sign of hope to do a Q4 2018 like V shaped recovery back to new highs by the fall. There is a desperation for good news on the bulls part. They still have way too much hope left for this to be a true bear market bottom. I'm still long term bullish, but I am bearish short term. I think we have more pain to come in the next couple months and that things are worse in the short term than is currently priced into the market.
Please provide proof of the "blatant and obvious lie".
If you have none, you should stop spreading Democrat propaganda.
Please provide proof he was telling the truth. It's very clear to me that you are the one on this forum spreading political propaganda and not looking at the reality of the situation.
You are the one making a claim. I'm asking for proof.
You have none, so you are the propagandist.
Welcome to my ignore list.
Hahahahahaha. What a tool.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:46 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:21 am
I know, the Knuckleheads forum is just such a strange place. They spend all this time analyzing stock market history, looking at charts, graphs, standard deviations, drawdowns. They get so snarky and pseudo-intellectual with each other. Yet for some reason these same people, who have done all this research, still invest as if bear markets don't happen and are somehow surprised when they do.

Like, uhhhh what?

It's as if someone told you that fighting Tyson Fury was going to get you KO'd, but you did it anyway and got KO'd. Hmmmmmm.

It's like they're a bunch of self-righteous Fundamentalist clergy... oops, and then several of them have affairs and get pregnant out of wedlock, some of them come out, Like, uhhhh what?

They write the same way... "As we were instructed by Jack Bogle,... "

sounds like "The Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) was asked which was the best kind of earning, he replied: That for which a man works with his hands. And honest trading." [BUY AND HOLD NO DOUBT]

It's kind of a cult, but it's under stress.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:48 am

ochotona wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:39 pm
The evidence that Trump is lying is that 10 million barrels per say would be 43% of Saudi and Russian daily production!

It's impossible on it's face! KSA and Russia would never volunteer for that. That's patently absurd.

Anyone who believes that's plausible has no operating brain cells. You've just proven it to the world.

That like saying Trump claiming he is going to leap from Earth to Moon, ain't going to happen.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:49 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:33 am
Please provide proof of the "blatant and obvious lie".
If you have none, you should stop spreading Democrat propaganda.

RE-POST
ochotona wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:39 pm
The evidence that Trump is lying is that 10 million barrels per say would be 43% of Saudi and Russian daily production!

It's impossible on it's face! KSA and Russia would never volunteer for that. That's patently absurd.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Dieter » Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:38 am

ochotona wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:49 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:33 am
Please provide proof of the "blatant and obvious lie".
If you have none, you should stop spreading Democrat propaganda.

RE-POST
ochotona wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:39 pm
The evidence that Trump is lying is that 10 million barrels per say would be 43% of Saudi and Russian daily production!

It's impossible on it's face! KSA and Russia would never volunteer for that. That's patently absurd.
From what I've seen, 10+m / day from all producers is a goal of some. (Including US production cuts).

Trump did say just Saudi and Russia., And 10m-15m.

But didn't give any timeframe.

I sure assume he meant daily, as 10m a week (or longer) periods is pretty insignificant (less than the 2m/day Saudi's recently increased their production.

Given that storage space is running low, something is going to give. Below link quotes someone saying 15m/day worldwide cuts may not be enough.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/02/tru ... l-cut.html
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by shekels » Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:07 pm

I am going to post this here as it is about OIL. Granted it is Not about Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUC6lsLr04I&app=desktop
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Dieter » Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:00 pm

shekels wrote:
Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:07 pm
I am going to post this here as it is about OIL. Granted it is Not about Trump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUC6lsLr04I&app=desktop
Interesting. Will be interesting to see how things change after the end of the beginning and impact on industries, especially transportation and oil.

Specifically to the video, I am hoping my 12yo car lasts a while longer - maybe electric, but the longer I wait, generally the better the car will be. Self driving would sure be nice.

But if work mostly from home, would we even need a second car....
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