Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Cortopassi
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:16 pm

This is what is supposed to happen, stocks crushed, bonds and gold are making up for it today!
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buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:17 pm

Cortopassi wrote:This is what is supposed to happen, stocks crushed, bonds and gold are making up for it today!
Not really.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Mr Vacuum » Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:37 pm

Great discounts to invest your tax cuts into :-\
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by eufo » Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:56 pm

Since I didn't panic sell at the open, the market decided to collapse. Sorry, everyone... Lol!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by drumminj » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:36 pm

Cortopassi wrote:This is what is supposed to happen, stocks crushed, bonds and gold are making up for it today!
Not quite making up for it, but I sure feel good about selling ~10% of my stocks last week to rebalance, and finishing my rebalancing today by buying LTT during the early dip, and some gold yesterday before markets opened.

The short-term moves are inconsequential overall, but I like when timing works in my favor (it usually doesn't) O0 Still down on the day with stocks tanking so much.
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Cortopassi
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:35 pm

Hard not to be down today (unless you are tech...!), but the PP did buffer reasonably well, and even more so now with gold rising in the evening.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:04 pm

Charles Nenner was on Moe Ansari's podcast yesterday. One year ago he was predicting a stock slump starting in Q3 2017 which would take the Dow to 7000.

One year later, he has stopped being immediately bearish about the stock market, he thinks there may be another hidden cycle at work which could push it higher but "the jury is still out on that one" he says. He still thinks there will be a bear market which will bottom in 2020-2021. No mention of Dow 7000.

He thinks there could be a minor low in Gold soon, then from middle of 2018 it will head higher. Target is $2500.

Thinks interest rates will start decreasing again, suggests it would be a good time soon to lock in some longer-term bonds at a higher interest rate.

Charles is always entertaining.
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buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:00 pm

ochotona wrote:Charles Nenner was on Moe Ansari's podcast yesterday. One year ago he was predicting a stock slump starting in Q3 2017 which would take the Dow to 7000.

One year later, he has stopped being immediately bearish about the stock market, he thinks there may be another hidden cycle at work which could push it higher but "the jury is still out on that one" he says. He still thinks there will be a bear market which will bottom in 2020-2021. No mention of Dow 7000.

He thinks there could be a minor low in Gold soon, then from middle of 2018 it will head higher. Target is $2500.

Thinks interest rates will start decreasing again, suggests it would be a good time soon to lock in some longer-term bonds at a higher interest rate.

Charles is always entertaining.
I listened on 1220 last night as well.
Nenner’s Notes ;D
You’re right, very entertaining.
I liked the piece about Au trending higher mid-2018.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:22 pm

I am pretty sure I would not pay for Nenner's advice!
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buddtholomew
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Feb 07, 2018 8:25 pm

The cycle is down and if it goes up it will go down further next time. Genius.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:25 am

I am thinking of taking a tax loss soon on Treasuries, converting my taxable account to 100% equity in case we are down for the year, I can tax loss harvest equities also. I would rebuy the same bonds in my IRA, after waiting 31 days.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by whatchamacallit » Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:49 pm

It might be too early to gauge but stocks going down have the least emotional stress on me versus losing money on bonds and gold.

It might be a possibly irrational belief that they will always go up in the long run and don't feel that way at all about bonds and gold.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:12 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:It might be too early to gauge but stocks going down have the least emotional stress on me versus losing money on bonds and gold.

It might be a possibly irrational belief that they will always go up in the long run and don't feel that way at all about bonds and gold.
Same with me.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Mr Vacuum » Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:32 pm

Cortopassi wrote:Where are the tweets? Where is Trump? Aren't the democrats, illegals, someone somewhere responsible for this HUGE stock market drop?

>:D
Here's your tweet, corto. I can't tell who he's blaming after all.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/sta ... 8968622086
In the “old days,” when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down. Big mistake, and we have so much good (great) news about the economy!
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:48 pm

SP500 below 200 day moving average. Trendfollowers will start selling...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Mr Vacuum » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:43 pm

Matt Levine on Feb 6. The market fell further after he wrote this, but if you enjoy his column this was the perfect take following on his previous segments on market volatility. (All his columns last week were enjoyable, on various topics)


https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... ock-market
People are worried that people aren't worried oh wait no.

On November 30 of last year, the S&P 500 Index closed at a new all-time high of 2647.58, up 18.3 percent for the year thus far. Two days earlier, Bloomberg Markets had published "What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market." "Equities keep hitting record highs and volatility hovers near historic lows, all while geopolitical tensions abound," the article began, and then it compiled worries from investors and strategists and pundits who worried that the party would eventually have to end. Would leveraged quant-fund unwinds finally bring down the long bull market? "Some sort of cyber event"? Weaknesses in China's financial system? Stresses to stock-exchange closing auctions? Over-reliance on index funds? Contagion from a Bitcoin crash? Concentration in repo markets? Really anything was possible; a long period of calm optimism had given people a lot of free time to imagine horrible counterfactuals.

Yesterday the S&P 500 closed at 2,648.94, a hair above where it ended last November.

So what to make of it? If you slept through December and January and last week and, above all, yesterday, and you woke up today to find the market up 0.05 percent over the last couple of months, I suppose you might conclude that the surreal bull market had quietly sputtered out. You might go back and re-read that list of worries and be like, well, sure, this list of worries is worrying, I can see why the market stopped being so uniformly optimistic, perhaps an even mix of optimism and pessimism is warranted and stock prices should drift up more slowly than they have been for the past few years.

Of course that was not the experience you had if you were awake for the last couple of months.
Last edited by Mr Vacuum on Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:45 pm

Nikkei down more than 2% now. Space junk will be circulating around the globe. See you all tomorrow at 9:30 AM Eastern!

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Re: Stock scream room

Post by eufo » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:56 pm

I gotta say, I'm actually embracing this correction. I was worried at the beginning, now I'm at acceptance.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:47 pm

Nikkei down two plus?
To Aokigahara
those traders will trudge

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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Mr Vacuum » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:52 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:Nikkei down two plus?
To Aokigahara
those traders will trudge
Nice one. I’m still grinning about the It’s Happening! gif from last week.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:18 pm

eufo wrote:I gotta say, I'm actually embracing this correction. I was worried at the beginning, now I'm at acceptance.
Same here. Well, I wasn't worried, but I wasn't thrilled.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:04 pm

Image

I don't really know what to do with this information, but it looked fun enough to share.
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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:55 pm

Fun like the Norovirus. If we get a bear market with margin calls and forced redemptions, we get a negative feedback loop powering the market lower.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by eufo » Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:10 pm

I love my cash, I love my cash, I love my cash...

Seriously, though... I do.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:14 pm

ochotona wrote:Fun like the Norovirus. If we get a bear market with margin calls and forced redemptions, we get a negative feedback loop powering the market lower.
Ocho gets it.
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