Stock scream room

Kriegsspiel · Post by **Kriegsspiel** » Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:14 pm

ochotona wrote:Fun like the Norovirus. If we get a bear market with margin calls and forced redemptions, we get a negative feedback loop powering the market lower.

Ocho gets it.

Kriegsspiel · Post by **Kriegsspiel** » Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:16 pm

eufo wrote:I love my cash, I love my cash, I love my cash...

Seriously, though... I do.

I like cash too. I think if I wasn't down with the PP philosophy, I'd naturally drift towards something like the Larry Portfolio/Nassim Taleb Barbell philosophy.

boglerdude · Post by **boglerdude** » Sun Feb 25, 2018 12:23 am

where do brokers get the $ used for margin loans?

eufo · Post by **eufo** » Sun Feb 25, 2018 8:27 am

boglerdude wrote:where do brokers get the $ used for margin loans?

I'd imagine it's created and lent the same way a bank might do, but I really have no idea.

ochotona · Post by **ochotona** » Sun Feb 25, 2018 12:08 pm

eufo wrote:
boglerdude wrote:where do brokers get the $ used for margin loans?
I'd imagine it's created and lent the same way a bank might do, but I really have no idea.

I don't know either, but everyone has a little cash in their brokerage accounts, maybe they re-lend that out.

ochotona · Post by **ochotona** » Sat Mar 24, 2018 6:21 pm

Copper is below 200 day moving average first time since 2016 election. Suggests slowing world economy.

ochotona · Post by **ochotona** » Sat Mar 24, 2018 8:23 pm

Lance Roberts is trimming is equity allocation from 60% to 45%. He's a local Houston guy who is getting more widespread credibility.

http://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-mar ... d-03-23-18

barrett · Post by **barrett** » Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:00 pm

Anyone putting in buy orders this afternoon?

bedraggled · Post by **bedraggled** » Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:33 pm

Dow 30, Dow transports and the S & P 500 are each below Dow theory sell signal. Must wait for the close. This is for a VP, I guess.

Post by **dualstow** » Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:23 pm

barrett wrote:Anyone putting in buy orders this afternoon?

Every week. (US$500 only)

ochotona · Post by **ochotona** » Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:29 pm

I don't know. I tried to catch the falling crude oil knife in late 2014. It ended badly.

buddtholomew · Post by **buddtholomew** » Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:29 pm

Bought IJS 10 min before close.
Stock portion of PP is now 55/45 S&P 500/iShares SCV.
I can only do this because other assets in the portfolio are mitigating the losses.

Purchases YTD (PP+VP)

SCV
REIT
TLT
VBTIX (Total bond market)

ochotona · Post by **ochotona** » Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:19 am

It's quiet here... Maybe TOO quiet...

Post by **dualstow** » Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:19 am

ochotona wrote:It's quiet here... Maybe TOO quiet...

It's just been too crazy. I think people are tired of screaming.

buddtholomew · Post by **buddtholomew** » Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:54 pm

It’s wondeful to be heavy in stocks and still protected to the downside to the best of ones ability.

Cortopassi · Post by **Cortopassi** » Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:56 pm

buddtholomew wrote:It’s wondeful to be heavy in stocks and still protected to the downside to the best of ones ability.

Until tomorrow...

buddtholomew · Post by **buddtholomew** » Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:22 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:It’s wondeful to be heavy in stocks and still protected to the downside to the best of ones ability.
Until tomorrow...

Yes, but I’m ok with that.
What I’m not OK with is stocks gaining and the PP losing.

Kriegsspiel · Post by **Kriegsspiel** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:04 am

Up! Down! Up! Down!

I assume the Flash Boys have been making a killing lately.

eufo · Post by **eufo** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:15 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:Up! Down! Up! Down!

I assume the Flash Boys have been making a killing lately.

The good ones are making a killing. The bad ones are getting killed.

Kriegsspiel · Post by **Kriegsspiel** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:55 pm

Maybe I'm out of touch, but how can front-running lose money?

boglerdude · Post by **boglerdude** » Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:49 am

I wonder if gambling were legal, stock volatility would decrease

ochotona · Post by **ochotona** » Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:17 am

https://thefelderreport.com/2018/04/18/ ... to-an-end/

ochotona · Post by **ochotona** » Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:06 am

"Trump threatens government shutdown in September if no funding for wall"

This might be the "bullet in the head" during a seasonally weak time for stocks at the end of a by then 9.5 year run.

sophie · Post by **sophie** » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:04 am

The funny thing about these articles on predicting stock market performance is that they go entirely by trend lines, ratios etc...which are great ways of describing what happened after the fact. I found it hilarious that an article referring to the stock market drop of 2009 can manage to completely ignore the actual reason why it happened, as opposed to the valuation & trend line explanation.

I thought Harry Browne described this very well: the market is the sum total of millions of individual actions, responding to a set of circumstances that is unique to any given time period and will never recur in the same way again.

eufo · Post by **eufo** » Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:25 am

sophie wrote:the market is the sum total of millions of individual actions, responding to a set of circumstances that is unique to any given time period and will never recur in the same way again.

I like this one.

Also, another one I like, but forget the source (and I'm paraphrasing)..

"The past doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes."

Stock scream room

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US stock market impressive performance may be coming to an end

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