Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Mon Aug 28, 2017 1:07 pm
ochotona wrote:I wonder if Houston will impact the market on Monday. Talk about Black Swans.
Is it really a Black Swan though?
Tyler wrote:Apparently gold floats.
ha!
RIP Marcello Gandini
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Aug 29, 2017 7:47 am
The severity and economic impact was a black "egret". I think the market doesn't know how to price it yet. This area has a huge GDP, larger than many nations.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:04 pm
The Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) of Houston-Sugar Land-Woodlands is $0.5 trillion, about the same as Sweden or Poland. The GDP of Greece is $0.19 trillion.
Houston is home to half of the Fortune 500 companies in Texas. Houston trails only New York City for most names on the list.
We are shut down. The market has NOT priced this in.
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Xan
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by Xan » Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:23 pm
ochotona wrote:The Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) of Houston-Sugar Land-Woodlands is $0.5 trillion, about the same as Sweden or Poland. The GDP of Greece is $0.19 trillion.
Houston is home to half of the Fortune 500 companies in Texas. Houston trails only New York City for most names on the list.
We are shut down. The market has NOT priced this in.
Have you sold your stocks?
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:38 pm
Xan wrote:ochotona wrote:The Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) of Houston-Sugar Land-Woodlands is $0.5 trillion, about the same as Sweden or Poland. The GDP of Greece is $0.19 trillion.
Houston is home to half of the Fortune 500 companies in Texas. Houston trails only New York City for most names on the list.
We are shut down. The market has NOT priced this in.
Have you sold your stocks?
No, I'm a trend-follower. I'll take a loss, then I'll sell {then they'll go up}
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Mr Vacuum
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by Mr Vacuum » Thu Aug 31, 2017 5:55 pm
ochotona wrote:The Gross Metropolitan Product (GMP) of Houston-Sugar Land-Woodlands is $0.5 trillion, about the same as Sweden or Poland. The GDP of Greece is $0.19 trillion.
Houston is home to half of the Fortune 500 companies in Texas. Houston trails only New York City for most names on the list.
We are shut down. The market has NOT priced this in.
Still nothing. I hear gas prices are rising, but the stock market and energy sector carry on.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Fri Sep 01, 2017 9:24 am
Mr Vacuum wrote:Still nothing. I hear gas prices are rising, but the stock market and energy sector carry on.
FYI, the campuses of BP, ConocoPhillips, and Shell are underwater. We'll see who gets to work next week. Many of their employees are in shelters because they are flooded out, they have no cars to get to work. 10% of structures on the County tax rolls have water in them.
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Mr Vacuum
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by Mr Vacuum » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:07 am
ochotona wrote:Mr Vacuum wrote:Still nothing. I hear gas prices are rising, but the stock market and energy sector carry on.
FYI, the campuses of BP, ConocoPhillips, and Shell are underwater. We'll see who gets to work next week. Many of their employees are in shelters because they are flooded out, they have no cars to get to work. 10% of structures on the County tax rolls have water in them.
(plugs ears)
I can't hear you!
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sophie
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by sophie » Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:54 pm
Absolute market price fluctuation is probably not a good barometer for such events:
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/5-worst-d ... ct-cm68124
Perhaps it's not the absolute gains or losses, but rather the performance relative to what it might have been absent the hurricane. It may be that without it, stocks would have jumped after seeing the August jobs report. Instead, they've been fairly flat or gone up only slightly.
This is kind of like Obama's problem after the economic stimulus: there was no way to know if it worked or not.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Sat Oct 14, 2017 10:36 am
bit.ly/2hH3pCX
Risk of a melt-up cited. LizAnn Sonders is always a perma-bull, so if she talks about a melt-up, then it could be underway already.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:02 pm
I just reduced my equity exposure from 60% to 55%. With trendfollowing that's likely HBPP drawdown levels. It's getting too crazy.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:37 pm
Liz Ann Sonders and Randy A. Frederick from Schwab have just gotten on a video today, where they have been gently reminding clients that
maybe things are getting too frothy, they've sensed sentiment shifting to extremely positive and speculative just in the past few weeks... they are perma-bulls, so maybe this is as much warning as they will ever issue!
https://youtu.be/PTuQGdtlaRY
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:11 pm
sophie wrote:On the other hand, if I held 60% in stocks and followed an active trading philosophy like our friend ochotona, I'd be on edge right now too.
Actually, my downside due to stocks is just about like the PP. Trend following will reduce the drawdown by at least half, so at 55% stocks, really the drawdown in a 2008-2009 scenario is going to be -10%-ish. But you do have to be awake on the last day of the month and decide to trade or not based on very simple metrics.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:40 pm
I'm at 50% stocks, give or take, so I will be hurt by a stock crash, psychologically. On the other hand, I'm young enough that I should be wishing for stocks to get cheap.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:57 pm
dualstow wrote:I'm at 50% stocks, give or take, so I will be hurt by a stock crash, psychologically. On the other hand, I'm young enough that I should be wishing for stocks to get cheap.
Subscribe by email or RSS to my trendfollowing signals. Then get out of stocks when the getting's good. Don't ride them down to the abyss. Gemsignals.blogspot.com
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:59 pm
I appreciate it, but I'll pass. They're mostly dividend paying stocks, those that aren't in the pp. (PP has index funds).
RIP Marcello Gandini
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:42 am
What's NW- oh, I got it. Net Worth.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Cortopassi
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by Cortopassi » Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:12 pm
Is it possible the computers/algos/powers that be, etc have such good control this time around that the markets really will never go down?
I almost ask that seriously. Not that I am going above my allocation, but damn it is freaking unstoppable.
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:58 pm
Cortopassi wrote:Is it possible the computers/algos/powers that be, etc have such good control this time around that the markets really will never go down?
I almost ask that seriously. Not that I am going above my allocation, but damn it is freaking unstoppable.
Hey, the market has to set new records somehow. This is how it happened in the past. We all just look more often now that it's this high.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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buddtholomew
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by buddtholomew » Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:28 pm
Look at GE.
Trough (pre-market) to close today + 11% AFTER missing earnings and guiding -30% lower.
You were saying this market is not rigged...
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eufo
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by eufo » Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:49 pm
BUY! BUY! BUY!
XIV is getting ridiculous
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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eufo
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by eufo » Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:19 pm
Kinda puts it in perspective... nicely done, sir.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind