Stock scream room
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Re: Stock scream room
From my friend Lance Roberts:
"Last week, we further reduced equity risk further bringing exposures down to just 40% of our portfolios. On a rally to the 200-dma which fails, we will reduce risk more and add negative hedges to portfolios."
"Last week, we further reduced equity risk further bringing exposures down to just 40% of our portfolios. On a rally to the 200-dma which fails, we will reduce risk more and add negative hedges to portfolios."
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Re: Stock scream room
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... n-6-25-mom
Why would you loan someone money to buy stocks?
Why would you loan someone money to buy stocks?
Re: Stock scream room
The stock market drop today was epic. It was like when a newborn baby's poo migrates out of the their diaper and up their back. Yechhh.
Re: Stock scream room
Actually only #10 most volatile this year...I think I heard that Bloomberg (mute if wrong)
However, A+ on the visuals!!! LOL
Re: Stock scream room
The Schwab talking heads - Randy Frederick, Liz Ann Sonders, Kathy Jones... are getting really bearish. If you read their tweets, you get a sense of this.
@lizannsonders
@randyafrederick
@kathyjones
@lizannsonders
@randyafrederick
@kathyjones
Re: Stock scream room
If they had predicted the timing of the stock market downturn in advance, then I'd be impressed.
Just about anybody can look at a stock market graph and say, "Yup, sure looks like the graph has been sloping down for the past month or two," and then tell a story that rationalizes why it might continue to go down for a while.
Just about anybody can look at a stock market graph and say, "Yup, sure looks like the graph has been sloping down for the past month or two," and then tell a story that rationalizes why it might continue to go down for a while.
- dualstow
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Re: Stock scream room
Yep. I love that people can make a living off of it.
Turns out you *can* profit from predictions, but only if you are the predictor. And you don't have to be right!
Turns out you *can* profit from predictions, but only if you are the predictor. And you don't have to be right!
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Re: Stock scream room
My rebalance for Jan has turned from cash going into about 50% bonds and 50% gold and selling some stocks to
6% bonds, 17% gold and 75% stocks.
I'm not sure I like the turn of this....
My PP at a low for the year now.
6% bonds, 17% gold and 75% stocks.
I'm not sure I like the turn of this....
My PP at a low for the year now.
Re: Stock scream room
They have medicine for that now. :-)
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Re: Stock scream room
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Re: Stock scream room
It’s funniest when people are arguing about the strategy and keep saying “PP” in the middle of a bunch of serious statements.
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Re: Stock scream room
A lot of the stock market selling he's going to turn out to be tax-loss harvesting. people talk about a Santa Claus rally but the Santa Claus rally really doesn't statistically take place until after Christmas.
Postscript Dec 25 - Lance Roberts looking for 2620-2650 as a possible oversold rally target.
Postscript Dec 25 - Lance Roberts looking for 2620-2650 as a possible oversold rally target.
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Re: Stock scream room
Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
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Re: Stock scream room
+1. Time in the market not timing the market.whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
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Re: Stock scream room
Not every day you see 1000 points, wow.
Still, my rebalance is now buy 98% stocks, a sliver of bonds, and actually selling gold. Interesting.
We'll see what that looks like when I really will rebalance in early Jan after contributing to my IRAs.
Still, my rebalance is now buy 98% stocks, a sliver of bonds, and actually selling gold. Interesting.
We'll see what that looks like when I really will rebalance in early Jan after contributing to my IRAs.
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Re: Stock scream room
https://web.archive.org/web/20170911171 ... -time.htmldualstow wrote: ↑Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:10 pm+1. Time in the market not timing the market.whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
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Re: Stock scream room
I took a look. While I agree with the author that holding stocks long term does not magically alleviate risk and turn them into bonds, it is the only way to fly if you are going to hold stocks at all. I mean I would rather shun equities altogether rather than try to time. How bout you?
Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:42 amhttps://web.archive.org/web/20170911171 ... -time.htmldualstow wrote: ↑Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:10 pm+1. Time in the market not timing the market.whatchamacallit wrote: ↑Wed Dec 26, 2018 3:09 pm Wow. Up 5% today. Great example of reason to never get out of market. Even for a day.
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Re: Stock scream room
My objective is to have enough assets I don't have to worry about it.
Re: Stock scream room
Ned Davis Research, in their monthly outlook, has lowered the stock allocation for their portfolio for risk averse investors to 40%. Normally it's 55%. This is the most cautious they've been since the GFC of 2008.
"On December 20, we reduced our recommended stock allocation by 10% and shifted it to bonds in our balanced account strategy. We have reached the downside extreme of what we would ever recommend for stock allocation, which has ranged from 40% to an upside limit of 70% since first constraining the allocation in 2008."
"On December 20, we reduced our recommended stock allocation by 10% and shifted it to bonds in our balanced account strategy. We have reached the downside extreme of what we would ever recommend for stock allocation, which has ranged from 40% to an upside limit of 70% since first constraining the allocation in 2008."
Last edited by ochotona on Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock scream room
The Buffet Indicator is at 130. My total stock allocation right now is just under 50%.
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Re: Stock scream room
Dow is now out of correction territory.
Re: Stock scream room
Is the U.S. Stock Market Bubble Bursting? A New Model Suggests “Yes”
GMO White Paper, Marn Tarlie, January 2019
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx16Ir ... sp=sharing
Key Points
■ A new model suggests that from early 2017 through much of 2018, the U.S. stock market was a bubble.
■ Driven by negative changes in sentiment, the bubble started to deflate in the fourth quarter of 2018, in spite of strong fundamentals.
■ Our advice, consistent with our portfolio positions established in Q1 2018 – as usual, we were early – is to own as little U.S. equity as your career risk allows.
GMO White Paper, Marn Tarlie, January 2019
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx16Ir ... sp=sharing
Key Points
■ A new model suggests that from early 2017 through much of 2018, the U.S. stock market was a bubble.
■ Driven by negative changes in sentiment, the bubble started to deflate in the fourth quarter of 2018, in spite of strong fundamentals.
■ Our advice, consistent with our portfolio positions established in Q1 2018 – as usual, we were early – is to own as little U.S. equity as your career risk allows.
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Re: Stock scream room
Bulls dont die of old age. Where's the malinvestment? China could poop the bed. Oil could go up, if high rates squeeze frackers
Re: Stock scream room
Malinvestment... Everything?boglerdude wrote: ↑Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:19 am Bulls dont die of old age. Where's the malinvestment? China could poop the bed. Oil could go up, if high rates squeeze frackers
Buying back shares with covenant lite BBB corporate debt (wink) instead of property, plant, equipment, R&D?