Seems logical to trim some gains on shares purchased during the decline (no tax implications). I convinced myself to at least rebalance to the more aggressive 80/20 stock allocation and not all the way back to 70/30.
Stock scream room
Moderator: Global Moderator
- buddtholomew
- Executive Member
- Posts: 2464
- Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm
Re: Stock scream room
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14228
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
Oh yeah, trimming is often sensible. And I have to admit I was envious of Ocho when I learned that he did more than trim at just the right time. Envious no longer.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:22 pmSeems logical to trim some gains on shares purchased during the decline (no tax implications). I convinced myself to at least rebalance to the more aggressive 80/20 stock allocation and not all the way back to 70/30.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
Re: Stock scream room
Where is that guy? I hope he didn't get COVIDed.dualstow wrote: ↑Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:57 pmOh yeah, trimming is often sensible. And I have to admit I was envious of Ocho when I learned that he did more than trim at just the right time. Envious no longer.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:22 pmSeems logical to trim some gains on shares purchased during the decline (no tax implications). I convinced myself to at least rebalance to the more aggressive 80/20 stock allocation and not all the way back to 70/30.
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14228
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
Ocho started posting less frequently even before coronavirus hit. I hope it’s not my fault. I know he wasn’t happy with some of my posts about immigration and ICE happenings.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
Re: Stock scream room
Last time I saw him here, he was threatening to quit his job since some of his coworkers were refusing to wear masks. So maybe he’s been busy with that.
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 5994
- Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 6:00 pm
Re: Stock scream room
I put him on ignore quite awhile ago. He wouldn't discuss issues without irrelevancies due to TDS.
-
- Executive Member
- Posts: 1313
- Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:40 am
- Contact:
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14228
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
I read most of it and don't understand how Buffett is a "predator" because he bought Amazon shares. In fact, besides the newspaper example, he really hasn't done anything wrong. The author has a beef with capitalism and and capitalism isn't perfect. What a weird target. But not because Buffett is folksy and friendly.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
- buddtholomew
- Executive Member
- Posts: 2464
- Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm
Re: Stock scream room
Quoting myself here.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Jul 10, 2020 4:22 pmSeems logical to trim some gains on shares purchased during the decline (no tax implications). I convinced myself to at least rebalance to the more aggressive 80/20 stock allocation and not all the way back to 70/30.
Updated AA in VP to 75/25 to SWAN.
I mean who has 50% gains in an International Growth fund...
Re: Stock scream room
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
- Cortopassi
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
- Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html
Re: Stock scream room
I've been rebalancing stocks down on this way up. Going against all the rules, but this run seems really out of whack.
- Kriegsspiel
- Executive Member
- Posts: 4052
- Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm
Re: Stock scream room
I love stock, I've been investing in quite a bit recently. One day I hope to be a bouillonaire.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
- buddtholomew
- Executive Member
- Posts: 2464
- Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm
Re: Stock scream room
ChickenKriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:14 pmI love stock, I've been investing in quite a bit recently. One day I hope to be a bouillonaire.
Re: Stock scream room
Brings a whole new spin to "bull" market.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:02 pmChickenKriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:14 pmI love stock, I've been investing in quite a bit recently. One day I hope to be a bouillonaire.
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14228
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
Gold. Absolute gold.Kriegsspiel wrote: ↑Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:14 pmI love stock, I've been investing in quite a bit recently. One day I hope to be a bouillonaire.
I sold a lot of indy positions yesterday, not knowing if stocks are going to go up for another ten years.
On my way down to 50% stocks (vp + pp), I’m hoping to capture some of the irrational exuberance.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
Re: Stock scream room
Guess I should keep an eye on the allocations if you guys are all rebalancing. I'm within a couple percentage points of bonds crossing the low end of the band.
- dualstow
- Executive Member
- Posts: 14228
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
- Location: synagogue of Satan
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
Big drop today. Ok, now my sale doesn't feel so bad.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
- Cortopassi
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
- Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html
Re: Stock scream room
A little lower today, but still insane
- Cortopassi
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
- Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html
Re: Stock scream room
I am seriously considering another strategic allocation change to lower exposure to stocks (currently 31% for me). On Aug 5th, I dropped from 35% to 31%.
I still have no idea what's driving the S&P 10% up for the year when Covid just keeps on stretching out longer and longer. Sure, there are some small # of companies benefitting, but I otherwise see major destruction happening or going to happen, like commercial real estate.
Am I missing something?
I still have no idea what's driving the S&P 10% up for the year when Covid just keeps on stretching out longer and longer. Sure, there are some small # of companies benefitting, but I otherwise see major destruction happening or going to happen, like commercial real estate.
Am I missing something?
- vnatale
- Executive Member
- Posts: 9423
- Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
- Location: Massachusetts
- Contact:
Re: Stock scream room
The market can be generally irrational for long periods of time? Being far too reactive in one direction or the other?Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:54 amI am seriously considering another strategic allocation change to lower exposure to stocks (currently 31% for me). On Aug 5th, I dropped from 35% to 31%.
I still have no idea what's driving the S&P 10% up for the year when Covid just keeps on stretching out longer and longer. Sure, there are some small # of companies benefitting, but I otherwise see major destruction happening or going to happen, like commercial real estate.
Am I missing something?
Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
- Cortopassi
- Executive Member
- Posts: 3338
- Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
- Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html
Re: Stock scream room
Quite possibly, Vinny.vnatale wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:04 pmThe market can be generally irrational for long periods of time? Being far too reactive in one direction or the other?Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:54 amI am seriously considering another strategic allocation change to lower exposure to stocks (currently 31% for me). On Aug 5th, I dropped from 35% to 31%.
I still have no idea what's driving the S&P 10% up for the year when Covid just keeps on stretching out longer and longer. Sure, there are some small # of companies benefitting, but I otherwise see major destruction happening or going to happen, like commercial real estate.
Am I missing something?
Vinny
But either way, I see the election being an "event" that will cause the market to roll over regardless of the winner. It's either going to be an oh shit, Biden is president and he's going to lock us down or oh shit, Trump is president and people are going to keep dying.
Either way, not good. And then a vaccine comes out, and people either don't take it, don't want to be first in line, or realize it's only 50% effective and are disappointed.
Re: Stock scream room
Makes sense And indeed, I also plan to get some juice of some of my stock allocations. Today, it seems the S&P run is considerably higher than yesterday, and even though the trading day has not yet ended it would be based on considerably lower volume than yesterday. So, for me it appears there is a sort of discrepancy between price move and volume... All time highs are not that far away too .. IMHO a near term correction is inevitable, but let's see.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:54 am
But either way, I see the election being an "event" that will cause the market to roll over regardless of the winner. It's either going to be an oh shit, Biden is president and he's going to lock us down or oh shit, Trump is president and people are going to keep dying.
In any case (Trump or Biden) I'll be extremely happy when that's over, as this forum looks more and more as tribune for politic discussions, rather than a PP discussion forum. I recognize that PP itself might be a boring one, but still ...
- Kriegsspiel
- Executive Member
- Posts: 4052
- Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm
Re: Stock scream room
I'm with you, Corto, it's perplexing. I'm looking at nudging my overall stock % down about a bit as well. Where are our resident finance nerds when we need em?
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
Re: Stock scream room
It's all about stimulus. If congress can pull their heads out of their collective arses and can actually get a stimulus deal through at some point, markets will continue to go up to dizzying heights. If they fail to do so, stocks will fall until they eventually force their hands similar to how they forced Powells hand to flip dovish in Q4 2018. Back in March after a 30% drop in the S&P congress was willing to do whatever it took in the form of stimulus. This same scenario will play out again if they continue to do nothing. The market will force their hands if they have to. Either way, the stimulus will inevitably come and the market will go up to substantial new all-time highs afterward just like it did following Q4 2018, imo. It may be a bumpy road though, at this point in the cycle volatility should be assumed to continue until the secular bull market finally ends.
The economy has nothing to do with stock prices these days. The only thing the election matters for is how much stimulus and how fast it will come. I actually think a Biden win will be better for stocks than a Trump win because of this, especially if the senate also flips blue, because then the real spending will begin, and in turn the true 1998-2000 like melt-up to end the bull market from the 2009 lows can truly begin in earnest. When we inevitably get fiscal stimulus fully on board permanently like we got monetary stimulus fully on board permanently coming out of the 08 crisis, there will be nothing stopping the market from going to 5,000+ before the bull market finally tops and starts the next true secular bear market. There is a lot of risks at this point, but there is also a lot of potential rewards. Selling stock now could look very silly in a year or two. Fiscal is necessary to keep the economy afloat at this point, and as such the fiscal will come, it's not a matter of if, it's only a matter of when. At least this is another angle worth considering before actively selling stocks on the assumption that they have to go down in the near to mid term. Remember Corto we had a similar discussion in this thread back in March that you can scroll back to, where I said they would do whatever it took to have the market back at all time highs by the election, and you didn't see how it was possible then either. So maybe once again this other angle is one worth looking at and at least considering before selling stocks. Eventually, sure every bull market dies some day, but if the whole country being under Corona lockdown couldn't kill the bull, it means the bull is still strong enough to keep going, and that in turn means the bull has a much higher destination in mind before it's willing to give up the ghost. That's my current take on things at least.
The economy has nothing to do with stock prices these days. The only thing the election matters for is how much stimulus and how fast it will come. I actually think a Biden win will be better for stocks than a Trump win because of this, especially if the senate also flips blue, because then the real spending will begin, and in turn the true 1998-2000 like melt-up to end the bull market from the 2009 lows can truly begin in earnest. When we inevitably get fiscal stimulus fully on board permanently like we got monetary stimulus fully on board permanently coming out of the 08 crisis, there will be nothing stopping the market from going to 5,000+ before the bull market finally tops and starts the next true secular bear market. There is a lot of risks at this point, but there is also a lot of potential rewards. Selling stock now could look very silly in a year or two. Fiscal is necessary to keep the economy afloat at this point, and as such the fiscal will come, it's not a matter of if, it's only a matter of when. At least this is another angle worth considering before actively selling stocks on the assumption that they have to go down in the near to mid term. Remember Corto we had a similar discussion in this thread back in March that you can scroll back to, where I said they would do whatever it took to have the market back at all time highs by the election, and you didn't see how it was possible then either. So maybe once again this other angle is one worth looking at and at least considering before selling stocks. Eventually, sure every bull market dies some day, but if the whole country being under Corona lockdown couldn't kill the bull, it means the bull is still strong enough to keep going, and that in turn means the bull has a much higher destination in mind before it's willing to give up the ghost. That's my current take on things at least.