Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2751
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Tortoise » Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:27 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:This pleases me. I sold all my non-PP stocks in my taxable account just before 2018 in order to buy real estate.
Congrats! (I also bought a home just before 2018.) Too bad residential real estate prices tend to be highly correlated with the stock market :)

Real estate price movements tend to be dampened relative to those of the stock market, but on the other hand, most first-time home purchases are made with at least 5x leverage (assuming 20% down payment or less). Maybe it's a wash...
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:39 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Kriegsspiel wrote:This pleases me. I sold all my non-PP stocks in my taxable account just before 2018 in order to buy real estate.
Congrats! (I also bought a home just before 2018.) Too bad residential real estate prices tend to be highly correlated with the stock market :)

Real estate price movements tend to be dampened relative to those of the stock market, but on the other hand, most first-time home purchases are made with at least 5x leverage (assuming 20% down payment or less). Maybe it's a wash...
Hah, well IIRC you bought a house in SoCal, which is waaaaaaay different from what I'm planning to do, which is buy a fixer-upper in the Rust Belt for, say, $30,000 in cash.

But yes, if I sold stocks and the peak, then bought a property after everything crashed... I'd probably write a book about how my strategy is the shit and make a bunch of money. Hell, if real estate prices crashed by the time I'm buying, I'd just buy a non-fixer and plug the rehab money back into the stock market.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:35 pm

ochotona wrote:Schwab is trying to prepare clients for a bear market. It's pretty obvious from their client communications in the last few weeks.
@LizAnnSonders

"We have been writing about the “risk” of a melt-up for a while now- becoming clearer that’s what we’re experiencing- discipline, rebalancing, diversification all crucial"

Liz Ann is Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:38 pm

US stocks up 1% today. My EM ETF up 1.5% in one day. This is nuts. It's got to snap back like a rubber band stretched too far. Trees do not grow into outer space.
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:43 pm

My International Growth fund is + 6% YTD, not including today which will be another 1%+
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:27 pm

Budd, you'll be retiring by March...

Fear Of Missing Out. Heard a story that more retail investors are starting to get in. Now. Finally. Hah.

Three things:

1) The PP has kept me in stocks. I either still would have never gotten back in from 2009 if it wasn't for the PP, or I would have gotten in and bailed early again. I guarantee it. Instead I get to enjoy it.

2) It looks like these tax cuts are working at least for now, with Apple bringing back money and jobs, various companies giving pay hikes and bonuses, etc.

3) When it happens, this is going to be the mother of all crashes taking everyone down that doesn't have some gold in hand. Or at least that's what I think.
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:31 pm

Haha, I was thinking for my birthday in Feb.
Agree, I would have sold to cash to “lock-in” profits countless times between 2009 and today. PP has kept me in stocks too.
It’s certainly been more challenging to stay in Gold and Bonds.
Nevertheless, I am happy with the PP’s performance and combined with a stock heavy global PP the combination has been rewarding.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14226
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:53 pm

ochotona wrote:US stocks up 1% today. My EM ETF up 1.5% in one day. This is nuts. It's got to snap back like a rubber band stretched too far. Trees do not grow into outer space.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yggdrasil
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:08 am

dualstow wrote:
ochotona wrote:US stocks up 1% today. My EM ETF up 1.5% in one day. This is nuts. It's got to snap back like a rubber band stretched too far. Trees do not grow into outer space.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yggdrasil
Uh oh
User avatar
eufo
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 243
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:17 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by eufo » Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:54 am

dualstow wrote:
ochotona wrote:US stocks up 1% today. My EM ETF up 1.5% in one day. This is nuts. It's got to snap back like a rubber band stretched too far. Trees do not grow into outer space.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yggdrasil
I love it! Ha!

This run up is amazing. Obviously it has to end at some point, but you gotta love the ride!
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:36 am

Some of the year-end 2018 S&P500 targets called by various analysts were in the 2850 range, we hit it today. Weird.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:28 pm

Messy Monday coming. Shanghai -1.46%, Hang Seng -2.72% right now. I want to see what Europe is doing when my alarm clock goes off.

I put a Standing Liberty quarter dollar on the corner of my computer just now. The date? 1929.
User avatar
eufo
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 243
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:17 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by eufo » Sun Feb 04, 2018 7:32 pm

Friday was really really bad. I need more "really"s in there, but you get the point.

I have half an urge to sell everything and go straight cash for a bit... bah. I hate feelings like that, because I can't be the only one thinking that, right?
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:05 pm

Eufo if you hold the PP, don't sell stocks. Your allocation is already low. 25% is a hunker down allocation for most people.
User avatar
eufo
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 243
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:17 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by eufo » Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:10 pm

ochotona wrote:Eufo if you hold the PP, don't sell stocks. Your allocation is already low. 25% is a hunker down allocation for most people.
I'm actually a modified GB allocation. 40% stocks. I still probably shouldn't sell...but I sure feel like selling.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:57 am

When do you need the money?
User avatar
eufo
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 243
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:17 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by eufo » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:49 am

ochotona wrote:When do you need the money?
About 2/3rds is locked away in a Roth, so that's going to be there for awhile. I may not touch that at all. The rest is in a margin account that I've been using to save up for a house. I've been looking for 2 years and don't like the housing market at all right now, so who knows?

The right move here is to stay the course, I think. I'd love to sell everything but gold and cash in my margin account and then start nibbling back in as things get worse. The obvious problem with that is that it may not get worse and V back up. Beyond just missing out on the move back up, I'd also take a tax hit.

I'm not great at separating my emotion (gut feelings) from trading. I sold all my VTI back in 2014 (edit, not 2016) after a bearish drop. I then nibbled back in as the market came roaring back... missing out and paying the taxman.

Maybe this time is different... maybe it isn't. The graph sure looks different... it looks bitcoin toppy.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14226
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:13 am

If you believe stocks will be higher than they are today, and in your lifetime, before you really need the money, then that should help. I might sell a tiny amount, just for psychological purposes. Won’t change anything.

The hard part, as you already know, would be getting back in.
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:00 am

Amazing the emotions brought up by "small" 1-2% downward moves in the stock market since people have gotten accustomed to it never going down...

You never hear about similar moves in bonds on the news. Or gold generally. But the sky is falling if it happens to stocks.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14226
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:00 am

I guess a lot of people worry “if this is it.” Is it the edge of the precipice. Will other people think similarly, panic-sell, and make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1959
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by sophie » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:45 am

Well, if this keeps up, the cash allocation is what's going to kick me into rebalance land. No hesitation in doing so once that happens. I love a good sale! (Just say that to yourself 10 times before hitting the "buy" button.)
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:16 pm

Image

:P
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:23 pm

Eufo, if you want to buy a house then I would have cash on hand because we never know the price of housing. It may go down in the next few years. As to the Roth IRA, I wouldn't touch it.

What I'm saying is this, you wouldn't want the house prices to go down and then take a big loss in your house buying account at the same time. That would be disappointing.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:49 pm

Where are the tweets? Where is Trump? Aren't the democrats, illegals, someone somewhere responsible for this HUGE stock market drop?

>:D
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:16 pm

This is what is supposed to happen, stocks crushed, bonds and gold are making up for it today!
Post Reply