Stock scream room

Discussion of the Stock portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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ochotona
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:37 pm

Liz Ann Sonders and Randy A. Frederick from Schwab have just gotten on a video today, where they have been gently reminding clients that maybe things are getting too frothy, they've sensed sentiment shifting to extremely positive and speculative just in the past few weeks... they are perma-bulls, so maybe this is as much warning as they will ever issue!

https://youtu.be/PTuQGdtlaRY
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:11 pm

sophie wrote:On the other hand, if I held 60% in stocks and followed an active trading philosophy like our friend ochotona, I'd be on edge right now too.
Actually, my downside due to stocks is just about like the PP. Trend following will reduce the drawdown by at least half, so at 55% stocks, really the drawdown in a 2008-2009 scenario is going to be -10%-ish. But you do have to be awake on the last day of the month and decide to trade or not based on very simple metrics.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:40 pm

I'm at 50% stocks, give or take, so I will be hurt by a stock crash, psychologically. On the other hand, I'm young enough that I should be wishing for stocks to get cheap.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:57 pm

dualstow wrote:I'm at 50% stocks, give or take, so I will be hurt by a stock crash, psychologically. On the other hand, I'm young enough that I should be wishing for stocks to get cheap.
Subscribe by email or RSS to my trendfollowing signals. Then get out of stocks when the getting's good. Don't ride them down to the abyss. Gemsignals.blogspot.com
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:59 pm

O0 I appreciate it, but I'll pass. They're mostly dividend paying stocks, those that aren't in the pp. (PP has index funds).
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:42 am

What's NW- oh, I got it. Net Worth.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:12 pm

Is it possible the computers/algos/powers that be, etc have such good control this time around that the markets really will never go down?

I almost ask that seriously. Not that I am going above my allocation, but damn it is freaking unstoppable.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:58 pm

Cortopassi wrote:Is it possible the computers/algos/powers that be, etc have such good control this time around that the markets really will never go down?

I almost ask that seriously. Not that I am going above my allocation, but damn it is freaking unstoppable.
Hey, the market has to set new records somehow. This is how it happened in the past. We all just look more often now that it's this high.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:28 pm

Look at GE.
Trough (pre-market) to close today + 11% AFTER missing earnings and guiding -30% lower.

You were saying this market is not rigged...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by eufo » Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:49 pm

BUY! BUY! BUY!

XIV is getting ridiculous
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:05 pm

Image

Image
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by eufo » Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:19 pm

Kinda puts it in perspective... nicely done, sir.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by boglerdude » Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:48 pm

Re: Market cap to GDP

"Buffett's Favorite Market Cap To GDP Metric Is Useless"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/408096 ... ic-useless
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:31 pm

Perfect chart, kriegs.

Funny, my friend quoted Buffet saying that at lunch today.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:31 pm

Selling off in Asia. Wednesday should be "interesting" in the USA. Maybe some volatility returns.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:14 am

I'll believe it when I see it. Might start out low, but slow ramp during the day to green/almost green has been the norm.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:37 am

Right on cue...

Image
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:45 am

Everyone can see the pattern...EU closing to US open. Question is whether this will continue and will you take action? I have as long as it's within established bands.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:04 am

Gosh, no, I don't take action until my bands are hit. These gyrations have become too predictable, which sort of means there's going to be a big fail of them in the not too distant future...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:10 am

Cortopassi wrote:Gosh, no, I don't take action until my bands are hit. These gyrations have become too predictable, which sort of means there's going to be a big fail of them in the not too distant future...
Sure feels that way...good until it isnt...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:07 pm

dualstow wrote:I'm at 50% stocks, give or take, so I will be hurt by a stock crash, psychologically. On the other hand, I'm young enough that I should be wishing for stocks to get cheap.
When the last 52 week high email hit my phone, I sold some, I'm now also at 50%, which is the bare minimum I'd be able to tolerate if they just went up at 10% per year for years more to come. It's my minimum no regret level.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by eufo » Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:43 pm

I thought I was gutsy at about 35% stocks compared to others on this forum. I'm the timid one!
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:38 pm

I discovered last week that I’m really at 45% stocks, all told, and I don’t like it. Still, I don’t think I can bring myself to buy.
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:27 pm

I am at 35% as well and happy there...
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Re: Stock scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Nov 16, 2017 5:16 am

If you are buy and holder, 25%-35% is just fine in this market.
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